With the NBA season underway, we will get our first glance at the power rankings. The Bucks will look to defend their NBA championship once the season gets going, while the Nets are likely being seen as the most talented team in the league. Let’s take a look at the power rankings.
#30: Orlando Magic
2021 Finish: 5th Southeast | 14th East | 21-51
The Magic are embracing their rebuild, with a ton of young talent, especially with Jalen Suggs joining Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, and RJ Hampton. Suggs had a shaky preseason, with just five points per game, yet they’re going to give him a diet full of shots, even with Fultz and Jonathan Isaac missing the start of the season. His work ethic, scoring skill, and the volume he will have is going to make him a Rookie of the Year candidate. They also have two young centers from the 2018 draft class that they are trying to develop into long-term pieces in Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. They’re hoping that Bamba’s development doesn’t get slowed down further, whether it be injuries or COVID, and they signed Carter to a contract extension at four years, $50M. Bamba led all players in the preseason in blocks per game (3.8), with 11.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 41.7 three-point shooting in 20.8 minutes per game. Carter did his part on 12.5 points per game while shooting 64.3% from the field. The hope is that one of these two centers takes the step forward and cementing themselves on the starting lineup, where one is likely going to have to be flipped for assets. Expect first-year head coach Jamahl Mosley experiment with positionless lineups and deploy intriguing three-guard units. They’re also going to need improvement from Fultz and Isaac as soon as they get back from injury, too. While there will be highlights and intriguing moments from them, which is the case for rebuilding teams, this season is more about growing pains and losses in preparation for the draft lottery.
HOT TAKE: Jalen Suggs wins Rookie of the Year.
TEAM MVP: Cole Anthony
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Mo Bamba
#29: Detroit Pistons
2021 Finish: 5th Central | 15th East | 20-52
With the Pistons having four first round picks in the past two seasons, they look like they could start three, maybe four, this season around Jerami Grant, who averaged a career-high 22.3 points per game as the no. 1 option last year. Saddiq Bey (12.2 PPG, 38.0% from three) and Isaiah Stewart (nearly averaged a double-double in his last 14 starts) are both locks for the starting spot, with Bey carrying on his strong play from last season to this year and “Beef Stew” earning the full-time starting center spot after Mason Plumlee got traded to the Hornets, with Kelly Olynyk (19.0 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.8 3pt/gm in 31.1 MPG in Houston) coming off the bench. Killian Hayes struggled in his rookie season, not only being limited to 26 games, but also committing 3.2 turnovers per game while shooting 35.3% from the field and 27.8% from three, and his effective field goal percentage was over 13 percentage points below the league average. This is Cade Cunningham’s team now, but Hayes should remind everyone why he was the 7th overall pick in last year’s Draft, as he showed plenty as a passer in his rookie season, which would accelerate the rebuild. Cunningham missed the entire preseason with an ankle injury that should not linger into the season. He has a unique combination of size and passing ability, making him a candidate to get triple-doubles from the start. He’s a lock to start too, which means that the youth movement should come along nicely on the starting lineup, with a collection of upside youth and reliable veterans on the bench.
HOT TAKE: Cade Cunningham becomes the first rookie to make the All-Star Game since Blake Griffin.
TEAM MVP: Jerami Grant
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Isaiah Stewart
#28: Houston Rockets
2021 Finish: 5th Southwest | 15th West | 17-55
The Rockets are embracing the youth movement, and it’s unclear on if they will climb down into the field of tanking or trying to walk on the top of the fence and falling headfirst. They took four rookies in the first round of the 2021 NBA Draft, including Jalen Green 2nd overall, and have a number of other young guys in the core, including Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood. They should give those players a lot of runs to see who they have and what they can be, while at the same time maximizing their ability to add another talent in the next Draft. Instead, during the preseason, they started a frontcourt of veterans, with Daniel Theis at center alongside Wood, and Eric Gordon or Danuel House Jr. at the 3 when available. Green showcased his scoring in the NBA Summer League, averaging 20.3 points per game on 51.4% shooting. It was a small sample size, but someone has to put up points for the team, and they are going to let him play through any first-year struggles. Expect him and Porter to play more when it matters. Wood has been solid, averaging 13.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. He looks either like a good building block or a good asset for a trade. Yet around him, the Rockets have the likes of Josh Christopher, Jae’Sean Tate, Alperen Sengun, and Usman Garuba. Chasing wins is not wise from a team-building standpoint, but at the same time, not a realistic goal. They’ll have their big games, as Porter did with his 50-point double-double, but youth typically doesn’t translate to wins. And Wood, Gordon, and DJ Augustin aren’t really the vets who can overcome it. Look for the Rockets to seek flashes of their young players and a lot of ping pong balls for the lottery next year.
HOT TAKE: The Rockets acquire Ben Simmons from the 76ers; John Wall goes the other way.
TEAM MVP: Kevin Porter Jr.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Kevin Porter Jr.
#27: Oklahoma City Thunder
2021 Finish: 5th Northwest | 14th West | 22-50
The Thunder are not trying to win games. They know they want to win some, especially with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but that is incidental, and technically, a little harmful, to their goals this season. They have the youngest roster in the NBA, filled with multiple raw, high-upside players, and they want to grow those players into true difference-makers down the wire. However, they figure to be more competitive than the Magic and Rockets. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 23.7 points per game last season, but with his efficiency, an uptick in volume could get him in the 25-point range. As long as he is healthy, he will be OKC’s go-to scorer and playmaker who can make this team pesky. Being better than the bottom tier will require someone to help him, and Josh Giddey looks like he is on his way already, averaging 13.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists per game in four preseason games. With him, the Thunder add a playmaker to a backcourt featuring Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Theo Maledon, and Ty Jerome. Giddey has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone, and his rookie season can show a glimpse of the future. Other guys like Aleksej Pokusevski, Isaiah Roby, and Tre Mann will get a lot of time on the court too.
HOT TAKE: Lu Dort finishes top five in steals per game.
TEAM MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Darius Bazley
#26: San Antonio Spurs
2021 Finish: 3rd Southwest | 10th West | 33-39
The Spurs are a franchise used to winning games, but after tying the NBA record of 22 consecutive playoff appearances, they find themselves outside of the playoff picture in back-to-back seasons, likely to be back-to-back-to-back. Now they have a roster that doesn’t possess much star potential on the current roster, as they don’t have a single player in the top 50 players list, so it’s hard to imagine if Gregg Popovich is going to stick around to coach a mediocre team as he heads towards his mid-70s. The current team has to come to grips with the inability to keep winning without star talent, and they expunged the veterans who helped keep this team going for so long. Now it’s something of a youth movement, although some of their “young” players are in their mid-20s. Are Dejounte Murray and Derrick White truly the Spurs’ backcourt of the future? Can Keldon Johnson take the leap? These are the kinds of questions the Spurs will have to find an answer to, a far cry from “How do we defend this star player in the NBA Finals?” Murray was clearly their best player in the preseason, with 17 points per game and shooting 40% from three. Newly signed Doug McDermott hit 42.9% of his threes, while another newcomer in Thaddeus Young settled into a low-usage role as a rebounding and defending big. Do the pieces fit together? That is yet to be found out.
HOT TAKE: This Spurs team will have the most losses out of any Spurs team coached by Gregg Popovich.
TEAM MVP: Dejounte Murray
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Keldon Johnson
#25: Cleveland Cavaliers
2021 Finish: 4th Central | 13th East | 22-50
The Cavs head into the season looking to have actual roster balance after injuries and poor construction doomed them last season. They invested into their future by re-signing Jarrett Allen to a 5-year, $100M extension and using the 3rd pick to take do-it-all 7-footer Evan Mobley. Mobley is still raw offensively, but he has flashed incredible defensive instincts. He knows where to be and how to time his contests, leading to blocks and shot-altering contests. He also took rebounds and pushed in transition as the ball-handler, the sort of frontcourt playmaking the team hasn’t had in years. While Allen and Mobley are different to make it work, things can get confusing when you consider they signed Lauri Markkanen in a sign-and-trade (4 years, $67M) and still owe Kevin Love $60 over the next two seasons. How do you split time between three big men making starter money and a Rookie of the Year candidate? They did give some minutes to the “Triple Towers” of Markkanen and Mobley at the 3 and 4 alongside Allen at the 5, though. Darius Garland looks break out this season, one that not only puts him in the Most Improved Player conversation but being a fringe All-Star too. Between the 2021 All-Star break and an absence that pretty much ended his season, Garland averaged 19.5 points, 6.5 assists, and 2.2 threes while shooting 40.3% from three. Even if today’s NBA focuses on offense, those are borderline All-Star numbers. If he picks up where he left off, and Sexton remains a mid-20s scorer, the Cavs will have one of the more dynamic backcourts. But both Garland and Sexton are 6’ 1”, which puts them at a defensive disadvantage and puts most of the defensive responsibilities on Allen and Mobley. It’s going to be interesting for the Cavs here.
HOT TAKE: Collin Sexton gets dealt by the trade deadline.
TEAM MVP: Darius Garland
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Darius Garland
#24: New Orleans Pelicans
2021 Finish: 4th Southwest | 11th West | 31-41
There’s not a lot of optimism surrounding the Pelicans, as outside criticism of the offseason paired with the absence of Zion Williamson to cast a sallowness over the start to the season. A bad preseason did not help matters, either. Williamson appeared in 61 of 72 games last season, but they announced he will miss at least the first few games of the 2022 season as he continues to recover from offseason foot surgery. The Pelicans will need him to be fully healthy sooner than later to have any chance of making the playoffs in a stacked Western conference, as their short- and long-term outlooks depend on his health. That’s a problem for them, who are minus-3.6 points per 100 possessions without him on the floor over the last two seasons. In theory, they have enough offense with Brandon Ingram, Devonte’ Graham, and Jonas Valanciunas to hold the fort in Zion’s absence, but Zion is 3rd all-time in points per 75 possessions (28.9), just behind Joel Embiid (29.3) and Michael Jordan (30.3). Zion is not easy to replace. A bright spot has been rookie Trey Murphy III, who led the team in scoring with 17.5 points per game. They traded back into the first round and picked him up. Murphy is a 3-and-D wing who can shoot from deep. He hit 53.1% of his eight threes per game, and also chipped in 6.5 rebounds per game too. Murphy might start at the 3, with Ingram moving to the 4, while Williamson is out to start the season. The backcourt looks set too, with Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in line to start. Look for Alexander-Walker to break out this season, which would go a long way towards helping the Pelicans moving from an up-and-coming team to a playoff team over this season and the next. But until Zion comes back, it will be difficult to evaluate the Pelicans.
HOT TAKE: Zion Williamson averages a double-double for the season.
TEAM MVP: Zion Williamson
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
#23: Sacramento Kings
2021 Finish: 5th Pacific | 12th West | 31-41
While the Kings had the worst defense in the league last year, they played reasonably well defensively in the preseason, providing hope that this could be the year they make a playoff push. Davion Mitchell was the big acquisition, a defensive monster at the point-of-attack who has the nickname of “Off Night” for how he limits opposing star players. He had a 17.8 net rating and an encouraging 52.6% shooting performance from three at a decent volume. The Kings are hopeful that De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and Mitchell can play minutes together, as a lineup of the three of them plus Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes is a solid two-way group. The offense has the ability to explode, which can set up a fireworks show. But on the bench, things still look shaky and vulnerable defensively, and they could be in for some games where they win in shootouts. There are also questions on if Marvin Bagley III can take the next step on his play. He averaged 20.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per 75 possessions throughout his career, but inefficient scoring and nonexistent defense have made him a net negative. Also, keep an eye on if the Kings are still willing to trade Buddy Hield. Trade talks with the Lakers went deep in discussion before the Lakers decided to trade for Russell Westbrook. The Kings would want Fox, Haliburton, and Mitchell to play big minutes, so this could mean that Hield could be shopped around the trade deadline. Another problem is that they play in a Western Conference filled with talent. Even if they make improvements, it’s hard to imagine them making the playoffs.
HOT TAKE: The Kings will be on the losing side of the highest-scoring game of the season, where both teams score at least a combined 300 points.
TEAM MVP: De’Aaron Fox
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Tyrese Haliburton
#22: Minnesota Timberwolves
2021 Finish: 4th Northwest | 13th West | 23-49
The Timberwolves found a diamond in the rough late last season. Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards were all healthy and played above .500 to close out the season. While they played 24 games when they played together, the results were encouraging—they scored at a rate of 120.9 points per 100 possessions with the three of them in the lineup. All three are entering the season healthy, and with new head coach Chris Finch able to install his system over a full offseason, the optimism is growing in Minnesota, and they can get back in the playoff mix, but they are going to need them to be in sync to get up through the Western conference standings. Towns had 15 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in just 22.7 minutes per night in the preseason. For the first time in a while, they have legitimate depth. They go 11 or 12 deep with reliable rotation players, and are able to mix and match for offense (Malik Beasley) or defense (Patrick Beverley or Josh Okogie). Finch is a legitimate head coach, and he has the offensive pieces to work with. Towns is in line for a strong season and Jaden McDaniels looked like a steal from last year’s Draft. The long-term ceiling of Russell and Edwards is a problem, but they’re going to help elevate the floor.
HOT TAKE: The Timberwolves clinch the 7th seed in the West.
TEAM MVP: Karl-Anthony Towns
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jaden McDaniels
#21: Washington Wizards
2021 Finish: 3rd Southeast | 8th East | 34-38
Playoff Finish: Lost in East Quarterfinals to 76ers (5 games)
Most of the talk around the Wizards was when the managed to fit a dozen offseason moves in a mammoth five-team trade, turning Russell Westbrook and several draft picks into Spencer Dinwiddie, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell and Kyle Kuzma. That’s a better situation to be in from a financial and team-building perspective, even if the “star power” went down. This new-look Wizards team went winless in the preseason, which is not really the biggest deal, but also isn’t a shot of confidence. Daniel Gafford looked good as a breakout pick to be the team’s starting center, and Dinwiddie was solid running the point in his first action since he suffered a partially torn ACL. Bradley Beal, who averaged at least 30 points in his last two seasons, can score from all three levels. Surrounding him with players who can open up space around the rim and on mid-range makes sense. They have a number of similarly sized forwards and a stretch 5 in Thomas Bryant, who will get other big men away from the paint. If he can average 31.3 points per game while playing with Westbrook, imagine what he can do with a roster like this one. On the other hand, many of the other new additions shot poorly from the field, and committed a number of turnovers. The question on who will start at the 4 is wide open, as Davis Bertans was ice cold all preseason and none of the other candidates really stood out. Which leads to this question: Have the Wizards done enough to keep Beal happy? He could enter free agency after this season, as he has a player option in his contract for the 2023 season. A lot of teams will be interested to see how this season plays out.
HOT TAKE: Bradley Beal leaves the Wizards after the season.
TEAM MVP: Bradley Beal
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Rui Hachimura
#20: Toronto Raptors
2021 Finish: 5th Atlantic | 12th East | 27-45
The Raptors accidentally tanked last season, and this year, they’re looking like a team planning to get their way back up the standings. There are a few teams who have a wide range of potential outcomes like the Raptors. Kyle Lowry is gone, which leaves four players from the 2019 title team remaining: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Chris Boucher. If they can rebound as the team that was one game away from making the Conference Finals, they’re going to quickly move up these rankings. For now, the reality of the changeover that happened around the core holds them in a lot of uncertainty. How does Scottie Barnes fit as a rookie, and is he a point guard offensively or is he a playmaking big man? Is Malachi Flynn capable of being a starter? Does Goran Dragic have gas left on the tank? Nick Nurse is still one of the best coaches in the league, and he will have this team ready to play night in and night out. Lineups combining Barnes, Anunoby, and Siakam are enticing, even more so when you add Boucher for maximum shot-blocking, rim-running impact. That doesn’t mean there aren’t issues. The Raptors finished 16th in offensive efficiency last season. While Dragic should help, they’re counting on the improvement of VanVleet, Siakam, and Anunoby to drive the offense. Anunoby’s game has grown by leaps and bounds since the 2019 season. If his numbers from this preseason (19.3 PPG on 12.5 shots in 25.1 MPG) are an indication, he can be a first or second option. But there are wild cards. Siakam, who was an All Star in 2020, hasn’t had an above-average true shooting percentage since Kawhi Leonard’s lone season in Toronto. Barnes looked like an intriguing young playmaker in the preseason, averaging 5.6 assists in 26.3 minutes per game. Precious Achiuwa has been dominant on the glass and on the defense. But drawing conclusions from just the preseason is dangerous. If Siakam can bounce back to the level he was for the title run, Anunoby scores at anywhere near the level he has had this preseason, and one or two of the younger guys takes off, the Raptors can be in the playoffs.
HOT TAKE: OG Anunoby leads the Raptors in scoring.
TEAM MVP: Fred VanVleet
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: OG Anunoby
#19: Indiana Pacers
2021 Finish: 2nd Central | 9th East | 34-38
Once again, injuries derailed the Pacers. This time, it mirrors that of at least a dozen other teams who all saw injuries to significant players preventing them from reaching their ceiling. Unfortunately for the Pacers, they’re not entering this season fully healthy. Caris LeVert and TJ Warren are expected to miss the start of the regular season due to injuries. Add the loss of Doug McDermott in free agency and the offensive ceiling is greatly reduced. Rick Carlisle has a history of getting great offenses, but he generally had elite offensive players with him: Dirk Nowitzki and Luka Doncic being those key names. Carlisle should still be a huge coaching upgrade over Nate Bjorkgren, but there are still plenty of questions on how certain Pacers mainstays fit together. His presence won’t matter if he doesn’t have the full roster at his disposal. LeVert will miss at least the first four games of the season and Warren still does not have a timetable for his return. In the last two seasons, the Pacers were better when one of Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner plays without the other. During the 2021 season, they were minus-3.2 points per 100 possessions when Sabonis played with Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon led the team in scoring in the preseason, while rookie 1st round pick Chris Duarte will be part of the rotation. On paper, a lineup with Brogdon, LeVert, Warren, Sabonis, and Turner seems to be in place. Because of injuries, the five of them have all yet to be on the court at the same time. Reality hasn’t mirrored theory during this era of the Pacers, and this is where Carlisle comes in. Maybe he can figure out where to place all the chess pieces. If the Pacers get a career year out of Duarte, Justin Holiday, Oshae Brissett, or Jeremy Lamb, they have a chance at weathering the injury bug and making the playoffs. But this is a wait-and-see situation.
HOT TAKE: Myles Turner gets traded to a contender by the deadline.
TEAM MVP: Domantas Sabonis
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Caris LeVert
#18: Charlotte Hornets
2021 Finish: 4th Southeast | 10th East | 33-39
When Gordon Hayward played his final game in the 2021 season, the Hornets were 25-23 and in 4th in the Eastern Conference. Then everything fell apart as the Hornets went 8-16 the rest of the way and lost in the play-in tournament. Nonetheless, they exceeded expectations and look to be the most exciting team to watch this season. LaMelo Ball likes to throw outlet passes that would make NFL quarterbacks envious, and Miles Bridges is one of the league’s best dunkers. The team is going to run and gun with the best of them. But just how good can this team be? They have plenty of talent, but the East got tougher this season. Can they create good offense in the half-court? Last season, it was a lot of Terry Rozier isolation plays. Can a healthy Hayward balance things out and make the approach more sustainable? How much will they miss Devonte’ Graham and Malik Monk? Hayward, Rozier, and Kelly Oubre Jr. played just one game in the preseason, and it was in a Hornets win. Oubre was very active, blocking three shots in 13 minutes. He adds value and helps the Hornets thrive in their small-ball defensive swarm units, which uses athleticism and activity to balance out a lack of size, hence the addition of Mason Plumlee. That gives them 3+ passers for their positions. And with two good three-point shooters in Rozier and Bridges, which rounds out the presumed starting five, this offense should be dynamic. Should Oubre, PJ Washington, or James Bouknight shine in the 2nd unit, the Hornets should be in contention for the playoffs.
HOT TAKE: The Hornets clinch the 7th seed in the East.
TEAM MVP: LaMelo Ball
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Miles Bridges
#17: Memphis Grizzlies
2021 Finish: 2nd Southwest | 8th West | 38-34
Playoff Finish: Lost in West Quarterfinals to Jazz (5 games)
A 3-3 record in the preseason doesn’t tell the whole story. The Grizzlies spread their players out, with only John Konchar and Xavier Tillman Sr. playing in all six games. In the four games where their core players played, they went 3-1, and were a strong plus-9.3 overall across the six games. Good stuff. Part of it was because of the depth, which is mind-blowing for how good it is. They go 2.5 deep at every position, and with so many different skillsets, head coach Taylor Jenkins can make a lot of starting lineups out of it. Ja Morant averaged 21 points per game in 25 minutes in the preseason coming off a postseason where he lit up the Jazz to the tune of 30.2 points and 8.2 assists per game. Jaren Jackson Jr., even if he has missed nearly all of last season, was excellent in the preseason, and continues to deliver enough to keep the JJJ Hype Train alive. Sam Merrill hit 58.8% of his threes. The Jonas Valanciunas trade was surprising, considering the Grizzlies were plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions and minus-1.6 with him off. When you look at what’s best for Morant, it makes sense. Valanciunas is an old-school bruiser who can do damage on the low block, which also means he takes up space there. Adams has a lot of experience as a rim-runner alongside a slashing guard, and his time with Russell Westbrook showcases that. More pick-and-rolls for Morant with a downhill rim-runner should draw defenses to the paint, which will give shooters like Jackson, Dillon Brooks, and Desmond Bane more time on catch-and-shoot opportunities. It might not be enough to escape the play-in tournament, but it’s not hard to see why the Grizzlies did it.
HOT TAKE: Jaren Jackson Jr. wins Most Improved Player.
TEAM MVP: Ja Morant
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Desmond Bane
#16: New York Knicks
2021 Finish: 3rd Atlantic | 4th East | 41-31
Playoff Finish: Lost in East Quarterfinals to Hawks (5 games)
Everyone is ready with strong opinions about the Knicks. Lots of analysts are going to recognize the outlier aspects of their leap to the 4th seed in the East (regression for opponent shooting, a fallback season for Julius Randle), while fans of the Knicks are heady with the amount of wins from last year and expecting to rise. The more likely is somewhere in the middle, but where would the end be closer to? There seems to be some doubt about the Knicks’ surprisingly strong 2021 season lingering in the ether. Perhaps some are not trusting Randle’s breakout season. But to his credit, he played well in the preseason, with 23.3 points and 10 rebounds per game. Maybe it was his flameout in the playoffs. Or maybe it’s the fact that they didn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Hawks. Whatever the case, FanDuel’s over-under (41.5) sees a regression in win percentage despite the offseason acquisitions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. Both of them, along with Randle, played limited minutes in the preseason but should raise the ceiling of the offense. The other factor to consider is Tom Thibodeau. He drives his teams hard, which is likely why they went 4-0 in the preseason and multiple players averaged over 30 minutes per game. Does that drive continue to push them to wins in the regular season or will it start to wear thin? Outside of that, it wouldn’t be hard to talk yourself into thinking the Knicks would outperform those expectations. Randle is on the verge of his prime. There should be plenty of development left for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Mitchell Robinson. And even with Walker being shaky in terms of health last season, can he and Fournier be upgrades over Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock?
HOT TAKE: Kemba Walker plays at least 75 games this season.
TEAM MVP: Julius Randle
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Mitchell Robinson
#15: Portland Trail Blazers
2021 Finish: 3rd Northwest | 6th West | 42-30
Playoff Finish: Lost in West Quarterfinals to Nuggets (6 games)
The Trail Blazers only have this season, or even the start of the season, to convince Damian Lillard that this team can be contenders with the team built around him. Offense was not a problem last season for the Blazers, but defense was. They gave up 115.3 points per 100 possessions, ranking 29th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. The addition of Larry Nance Jr. should help, but a lot of it will come down to new head coach Chauncey Billups to get the Blazers to defend harder and with more purpose. While Lillard found himself strong in limited minutes in the preseason, shooting 58% from the field and 46% from three. The team around him had trouble getting the ball in the net, and the opponents had no trouble scoring themselves. That preseason has to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but when it confirms your priors, it has greater weight. Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Norman Powell all on the starting lineup is a tough place to be in defensively. Both Lillard and McCollum are poor defenders and Powell is too undersized to start at the 3. To help them be in a better position to contend in the West, they may want to have Powell come off the bench and start Nance alongside Robert Covington. However, a lineup with Lillard, McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic is one that has to be taken seriously. In the past three years, regular season and playoffs combined, the Blazers are plus-8.3 points per 100 possessions when all three are on the court. They will be surrounded by a supporting cast that includes Powell, Covington, Nance, and Cody Zeller. Covington and Powell can keep the floor spread and pick-and-rolls with Nurkic and Lillard. Nance is a multipositional defender and an underrated passer who can provide inside-out playmaking. And although Zeller isn’t as prolific of an offensive threat as Enes Kanter, he is an experienced roll man who can create vertical gravity for reserve units. Should Nassir Little or Anfernee Simons take a developmental leap, look out for the Trail Blazers.
HOT TAKE: CJ McCollum gets traded by the deadline.
TEAM MVP: Damian Lillard
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Anfernee Simons
#14: Los Angeles Clippers
2021 Finish: 2nd Pacific | 4th West | 47-25
Playoff Finish: Lost in West Finals to Suns (6 games)
There is no timetable for the return of Kawhi Leonard, who underwent knee surgery to repair a partially torn ACL. So it’s hard to imagine him playing a single minute during the 2022 season. If the Kawhi-less Clippers can get to the playoffs and Kawhi returns for those games, their title odds (+1600) would make more sense. But that, in theory, is months from now. As they look to contend in the West, will the core of Paul George, Reggie Jackson, Eric Bledsoe, Serge Ibaka, Marcus Morris, and Terance Mann be enough to keep them in the West? PG13 took his level to another level in the playoffs without Kawhi, but can he do it consistently for at least the first half of the season? The Clippers winning games is squarely on his shoulders. While they have their role players, they had far less defensive attention last season. Supporting two superstar players is very different than supporting one. Another big problem for them is their lack of shot creation. PG prefers to take jump shots, and Jackson’s playoff run could be a fluke. Kawhi carried a significant amount of that load, and without him, the offense could be sputtering. There is some hidden upside, too. Mann signed an extension this offseason, and his combination of defense and fearless shooting could push him to the starting lineup while Kawhi is out. Luke Kennard also signed an extension but had a middling year. He did lead the team in scoring in the preseason, though, which could be a sign of a bounce-back season. Isaiah Hartenstein, Brandon Boston Jr., and Keon Johnson are all young players with upside to restock the bench. They’re going to have their good moments, but they will also have their bad, as PG hasn’t been “the guy” since he finished top 3 in MVP voting with the Thunder in 2019. He showed he can elevate his play without Kawhi, but seems uncomfortable with the shot load. He shot just 33.3% from the field in the preseason, which highlights his tendency to be an inconsistent shooter.
HOT TAKE: Paul George finishes top 5 in MVP voting as Kawhi Leonard doesn’t play a game this season.
TEAM MVP: Paul George
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Terance Mann
#13: Chicago Bulls
2021 Finish: 3rd Central | 11th East | 31-41
The Bulls decided they are tired of tanking and are going all-in the East. They pushed a lot of chips when they traded Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr., and two 1st round picks for Nikola Vucevic and Al-Farouq Aminu. This summer, they added DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso to the roster in free agency to complement Zach LaVine. They essentially exchanged their future for the present and now have one of the most offensively dynamic core fours in the league. While Patrick Williams is the only one who is a lock at the 4, as he is the only player drafted by the Bulls who is a lock to make the rotation, they’re likely going to give up tons of points, but they have a chance to get back to the playoffs just by outgunning opponents. They averaged 118 points per game and finished a perfect 4-0 in the preseason, with a whopping +21.5 point differential. The averages for assists per 75 possessions for the core four ranged from Vucevic’s 4.2 to DeRozan’s 7.5. The ball should be flying throughout the floor for the 2022 season. And all three scoring levels are covered. Vucevic can score from the paint or from three. DeRozan is best from mid-range. Lonzo’s three-point shooting became lethal in New Orleans. And LaVine developed into one of the game’s most dangerous scorers from anywhere. LaVine averaged 22.5 points per game in just 29 minutes in the preseason while being part of the 50/50/90 club, already developing a chemistry with DeRozan. So, why is the roster inverted? The best defenders are both in the backcourt and are likely coming off the bench. Defensively, Caruso and Javonte Green terrorized opposing ball-handlers, setting up transition opportunities the other way. Lonzo, Caruso, and Green average a combined 5.8 steals per game in the preseason. Their combination of transition-inducing turnovers and a high-powered offense makes this team one to look for playoffs. For them to be successful, the offense needs to be red-hot, and they need the backcourt defenders to wreak havoc.
HOT TAKE: Lonzo Ball finishes top 5 in three-pointers.
TEAM MVP: Zach LaVine
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Lonzo Ball
#12: Dallas Mavericks
2021 Finish: 1st Southwest | 5th West | 42-30
Playoff Finish: Lost in West Quarterfinals to Clippers (7 games)
The Mavericks are a huge wild card this season. Two completely different scenarios can happen for them. Scenario 1: The Mavs are due for a breakout season. Luka Doncic is an offensive superstar who is still just 22 years old. The last time Kristaps Porzingis had knee surgery, he was much better a full season removed. Through his first two seasons in Dallas, he was utilized more as a spot-up shooter rather than a true secondary option next to Doncic. Also, he should be much better defensively this year, as he looked this preseason. They added 3-and-D players this offseason in Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown, who are perfect to build around a star like Doncic. Bullock is also a good floor-spacer. Finally, they are unlikely to have another COVID outbreak that derails their season. As long as Doncic is on the roster, they should have a formidable offense, as he can tear apart any opposition’s scheme, get to the paint, and either finish or pass to the right guys around the perimeter. His production is a given. Scenario 2: The Mavs are due for a disappointing season. They didn’t do a lot to truly upgrade around Doncic, holding on to the cap space just to add a role player (Bullock) and re-sign Tim Hardaway Jr. Jason Kidd might be the worst head coach in the league who busted people’s reputations in his less-than-stellar coaching stints with the Nets and Bucks, and is a significant downgrade from the tactical genius of Rick Carlisle. Doncic had an insane workload all of last season and had the same workload in the Olympics in a shorter summer, which is a recipe of wear-and-tear catching up to him. Which of these two scenarios is more accurate? Only time will tell, and the Mavs’ ranking on this list is more to do with the two realities. They could either go as far as the Western Conference Finals or lose in the play-in; Kidd could be the terrible coach we expect or be competent to not meddle in the players’ interests. Either scenario can happen.
HOT TAKE: Kristaps Porzingis has a bounce-back year and is an All-Star.
TEAM MVP: Luka Doncic
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jalen Brunson
#11: Boston Celtics
2021 Finish: 4th Atlantic | 7th East | 36-36
Playoff Finish: Lost in East Quarterfinals to Nets (5 games)
New Celtics head coach Ime Udoka has a lot of decision to make with the new-look Celtics. They went .500 last season before getting wiped by the Nets in the first round. Four of their top five players in VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams III, and Marcus Smart), are all back. Tatum and Brown are both All Star wings that the Celtics can build upon, as the modern NBA is all about the two-way wings. If you have them, you can compete for a title, but if you don’t you have a tiny margin for error. But what makes this season’s Celtics easier to trust than the 2021 Celtics? The four returners are still young. Smart is in the middle of his prime, but the other three are shy of theirs. There is a lot of reason to expect improvement from them, as well as from Payton Pritchard and Aaron Nesmith. Tatum averaged 20.3 points per game in three preseason games, while Brown scored 25 points in his lone preseason appearance in just 26 minutes. Their versatility will give Udoka the flexibility to slide them up and down the lineup and get rotations in a variety of ways. Not having to rely on Kemba Walker’s heatlth is a positive, too. While he was effective when he was on the floor, he played just 43 games last season and 56 in 2020. So, it’s fair to wonder if that trend will continue this season for him. The biggest question is in the backcourt. Dennis Schroder was available inexpensively after a down season. Smart and Josh Richardson have strong defensive reputations, but are inconsistent on offense, as Smart hasn’t met a shot he doesn’t like, and Richardson rarely finds one that he does. Pritchard had a good rookie season and will look to build on it. If the Celtics get at least two consistent contributors, they will be in business for a bounce-back.
HOT TAKE: The Celtics have the best defense in the league.
TEAM MVP: Jayson Tatum
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Payton Pritchard
#10: Philadelphia 76ers
2021 Finish: 1st Atlantic | 1st East | 49-23
Playoff Finish: Lost in East Semifinals to Hawks (7 games)
The Ben Simmons saga has made the 76ers the epicenter of a media maelstrom, and, consequently, one of the more difficult teams to figure out for the 2022 season. If he is available, the Sixers will be one of the best teams in the league out of the gate. Last season, with him and Joel Embiid on the court, the Sixers were plus-15.9 points per 100 possessions. Their fit might not be perfect, but the duo powered the Sixers to the best record in the Eastern Conference last season. Nobody expected Simmons to end his holdout soon, and absolutely no one, including the Sixers, would have predicted that Simmons would show up outside the arena and text his GM to let him in. It’s yet another year of the Sixers Soap Opera, which dates back to when Bryan Colangelo was discovered to use burner accounts. Even when Simmons is back, there are a a number of directions the Sixers can go. He could suit up and play hard, as he has done, and the Sixers can keep him in. He could play well and help the team trade him. Or, he could purposefully play terrible, much like how James Harden forced his way out of Houston last season. Finally, he, or the team, could create a reason why he would be present but sitting out. If he goes into self-sabotage mode in an effort to force a trade, this would be a very different story. Such an approach wouldn’t have the same effect for Simmons, as he is coming off a trade-value-nuking postseason and is under contract for four years. The best way for him to rehab his trade value is to go all in on both sides of the floor, dominate as a perimeter defender and playmaker, and remind the league of what he can do. If he remains a Sixer, expect some chemistry issues, but that doesn’t mean the season would be derailed. Daryl Morey will look for trade offers but hopes that Simmons redeems his trade value further. How this ends up will not only shape their season, but could also shake up the league as a whole. That’s not to mention that even with Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Danny Green, Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton, and Tyrese Maxey still around, two players worth mentioning are Isaiah Joe and Paul Reed. Joe was lights out in the preseason, hitting 59.3% of his 6.8 threes per game. Reed, in 22.1 minutes per game, averaged 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks. No player reached those numbers last season. Even without Simmons, the Sixers still have intriguing players.
HOT TAKE: Ben Simmons remains a Sixer by the end of the season.
TEAM MVP: Joel Embiid
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Tyrese Maxey
#9: Golden State Warriors
2021 Finish: 4th Pacific | 9th West | 39-33
The Warriors have a dramatic range of potential outcomes. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are still around and are still as good as ever. Klay Thompson is expected to begin practicing sometime in November, with a return date sometime in December or early January. A lot has changed since Klay last took the court in Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals. He should still be an effective player on the strength of his shooting, but it’s easy to forget he was one of the best perimeter defenders in the league before tearing his ACL and Achilles. How he looks coming off two major injuries should determine how far the Warriors go this season. For now, the Warriors are going to have to rely on a ton of unproven young players like James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga. But even as Curry ages, he remains the best shooter in the league. Last season, when he played without Kelly Oubre Jr., the Warriors were plus-13.2 points per 100 possessions (97th percentile). In those same alignments, he averaged 50.6 points per 100 possessions with a 68.4 true shooting percentage by himself. And from the preseason, the Warriors didn’t need Klay to play well. His return is necessary for them to reach their ceiling, but their floor should still be high even in his absence. Curry remains on fire from last season, where he led the league in scoring. He had 41 points on the Trail Blazers in the preseason finale and averaged 24.5 points per game in four appearances in just 22.8 minutes. Jordan Poole steps into the starting lineup and has been incredible in the preseason, with 21.8 points per game in 22.7 minutes per game. He can hit shots from anywhere. Otto Porter Jr., Andre Iguodala, and Nemanja Bjelica are veterans who can come off the bench that are excellent fits in Steve Kerr’s system, unlike some of the options from last season. Juan Toscano-Anderson and Damion Lee can come in at any time and execute at a high level. It took a while for Kerr to relent on the “let Curry cook” offensive philosophy. But once he did, the Warriors made a late-season surge to the play-in tournament. This season, the Warriors look to start closer to that approach.
HOT TAKE: The Warriors win the NBA Finals.
TEAM MVP: Stephen Curry
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jordan Poole
#8: Atlanta Hawks
2021 Finish: 1st Southeast | 5th East | 41-31
Playoff Finish: Lost in East Finals to Bucks (6 games)
The Hawks entered last season’s All-Star break with a 16-20 record and a slightly positive (0.3) net rating. From the point Nate McMillan took over as interim head coach to the end of the 2021 season, the Hawks had the 3rd-best record in the NBA, even going 25-11 after the All-Star weekend with a 4.3 net rating. Health played a big role in turning the season around, but that wasn’t the only factor. They then made a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Final before an injury to Trae Young derailed them. It’s fair to conclude that the Hawks will have a strong season this year. They are young across the rotation, but in a stacked East, there is plenty of talent to push them down the standings. Heading into the 2022 season, Young, who was never lacking in confidence, should be empowered by the playoff success and a still-developing supporting cast. With Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic squarely in their primes, and with John Collins, Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, and Cam Reddish still approaching theirs, there is reason to believe that internal progress will make this team better. Collins is a dynamic inside-out offensive threat, but he can get better defensively. Huerter still has another level to go playmaking-wise and with consistency with his jumper. Reddish showed flashes of three-and-D upside, but they have been few and far between. Hunter, who was limited to just 19 games last season due to injury, looks like a budding two-way star as a combo forward. They have so many pieces on the roster that will take a step forward from last year. With a bigger target in sight, it’s going to be interesting to see how the young Hawks build on their run to the East Final.
HOT TAKE: The Hawks finish 2nd in the East as Nate McMillan wins Coach of the Year.
TEAM MVP: Trae Young
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Cam Reddish
#7: Denver Nuggets
2021 Finish: 2nd Northwest | 3rd West | 47-25
Playoff Finish: Lost in West Semifinals to Suns (4 games)
The Nuggets will be without Jamal Murray to start the season as he recovers from a torn ACL he suffered in April. It’s hard to see any team missing their 2nd-best player as a legitimate title contender. But they’re in a unique situation. They have the reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic, and another potential star on the roster who fits nicely next to him and is poised for a breakout season in Michael Porter Jr. After the All-Star break last season, Porter averaged 22.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.1 threes while shooting 46.4% from deep, pulling his career marks to 2.0 threes with a 43.9 three-point percentage. He and Stephen Curry are the only two players in NBA history to average at least two threes per game with a three-point percentage that high through their age-22 seasons. Porter is basically a 6’ 10” Klay Thompson who knows how to find open spots on the floor, making himself available to playmakers and converting on catch-and-shoot opportunities with lights-out efficiency. Spending the majority of the 2022 season as the 2nd option will boost his development and give Jokic a reliable target to pass to. Coming off a max extension, Porter can see his scoring totals go above 20 points per game at the very least. His partner at the forward line is Aaron Gordon, who also signed an extension himself, providing defense and secondary passing. The Nuggets can mix-and-match options in the backcourt to make up for Murray’s absence. Will Barton is expected to start at the 2, and Monte Morris is the first option at the 1. Free-wheeling Facundo Campazzo and hard-nosed PJ Dozier will provide a different look off the bench, and exciting rookie Bones Hyland could get into the rotation.
HOT TAKE: Nikola Jokic has at least 15 triple doubles on the season.
TEAM MVP: Nikola Jokic
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Michael Porter Jr.
#6: Miami Heat
2021 Finish: 2nd Southeast | 6th East | 40-32
Playoff Finish: Lost in East Quarterfinals to Bucks (4 games)
After an unexpected run to the 2020 NBA Finals, the Heat took a bit of a step back in 2021. Their winning percentage went down, and the eventual champion Bucks got their revenge on them with a first round sweep. In the wake of the shellshacking, they put together a formidable starting lineup that doesn’t contain a lot of question marks, with Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, and Bam Adebayo. The only question they relatively have is how often and accurately Butler and Tucker shoot. Though Lowry is entering his age-35 season, it’s hard to see him as anything but an upgrade at the 1. He had an above average box plus/minus last season, while the Heat didn’t have a single guard who could say the same. With Lowry taking a lot of the playmaking duties from Butler, the All-Star wing will be freed up for more off-ball opportunities. This offers a boost to Butler’s already efficient attack. Guys like Adebayo, Robinson, and Tyler Herro should make the Heat a tough matchup for anyone, which is especially true if Herro’s preseason play (averaging 22.4 points in 26.9 minutes while shooting 44.8% from three) is any indication of what he will do in 2022. He is one of the bigger swing players in the league, and if he can recapture his play from the 2020 Bubble, the Heat can raise their ceiling to championship level, and him having a Most Improved Player-caliber season could give them the boost they need off the bench. The remainder of the bench raises question marks, especially with Tucker and Butler aging. The Heat need to keep their minutes down for their key players. The problem is that they don’t have a lot of proven players coming off the bench, as it is filled out by players who came up through the G League. Max Strus looks like he could be the real deal as an offensive threat in the backcourt. Gabe Vincent is the team’s latest three-point specialist, while Omer Yurtseven was once a highly-regarded prospect who could work his way as the backup center behind Adebayo. It’s possible that they can address the depth problem sometime before the playoffs, but they are built for the postseason, with a tight group of players who have all been deep in the playoffs.
HOT TAKE: The Heat pull off another surprise run to the NBA Finals.
TEAM MVP: Jimmy Butler
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Tyler Herro
#5: Phoenix Suns
2021 Finish: 1st Pacific | 2nd West | 51-21
Playoff Finish: Lost in NBA Finals to Bucks (6 games)
The Suns played a Lakers team without Anthony Davis, a Nuggets team without Jamal Murray, and a Clippers team without Kawhi Leonard on their way to the 2021 NBA Finals. This caused many to doubt their legitimacy of their Finals appearance, but that shouldn’t downplay the boost of confidence a deep playoff run can produce. Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Johnson are all still developing. Knowing that you can make it to the biggest stage should accelerate their development. Chris Paul could see a step back now that he is 36, and the Suns will certainly deal with injuries more than they did a season ago, practically the only playoff team not to suffer any major injuries. Booker continues his transcendence to being a no. 1 scorer, Ayton and Bridges are entering their 4th season, and the rest of the conference is not exactly in a position to get them down the standings. While Ayton was no match for Giannis Antetokounmpo in the NBA Finals (realistically, nobody was a match for Giannis), but finished the playoffs with 15.8 points on 65.8% shooting, 11.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. Booker made one appearance in the preseason, shooting 60% from the field and scoring 17 points in 18 minutes. Bridges just signed a long-term extension to the tune of 4 years, $90M, and can have a case for being the best 3-and-D wing in the league. Kudos to James Jones for constructing a playoff contending team, so a step backward should not be in the mix. Even incremental improvements should make them better, though it doesn’t really put them in the driver’s seat to win the West.
HOT TAKE: The Suns make another Western Conference Finals appearance.
TEAM MVP: Devin Booker
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Cameron Johnson
#4: Los Angeles Lakers
2021 Finish: 3rd Pacific | 7th West | 42-30
Playoff Finish: Lost in West Quarterfinals to Suns (6 games)
This team is old. No doubt about that, as they have the oldest roster in the league. But that’s not the biggest question about the Lakers. It’s fair to dismiss their 0-6 preseason record. Over the past few years, LeBron James has been known to coast through the regular season. He appeared in just three preseason games and the team was a +17 in his 73 minutes. They didn’t play any of their expected rotation players (except for Kent Bazemore) for all six games. At the most, the preseason is an indication that it will take some time for the new Big Three in LA to get the chemistry going with each other and the veteran supporting cast. Westbrook is used to dominating the ball, and so is LeBron. Neither spent much time as a floor spacer for someone like himself. When the last two assist champions are both on the starting lineup, who takes the primary playmaking duties? It doesn’t hurt to have multiple ball handlers, but can LeBron and Russ make it work? And there’s also a lot of precedent for LeBron’s Big Threes needing time to adjust. The Heatles took more than a year. The 2015 Cavs started 5-7. Both groups figured it out. Even so, many of those concerns were seen in those preseason games. James and Anthony Davis shot 25% from deep, which is a death sentence given the lack of spacing they have in the starting lineup alongside Russell Westbrook and the short-range centers. Both Trevor Ariza and Talen Horton-Tucker went down with injuries that will sideline them for the opening weeks. Carmelo Anthony is not getting any younger. Of the collection of low-cost players, only Malik Monk played well, and he was a -33 in 63 minutes. This team can only go as far as LeBron, AD, and Russ will take them, but the roster construction looks more of a carbon copy of the 2013 Lakers squad that went 0-8 in the preseason. That team never came together, but it’s too early to tell if this year’s Lakers will follow suit. Even so, the new Big Three is too talented for the tandem to fail, but it will take time.
HOT TAKE: The Lakers lose in the second round and part ways with Frank Vogel afterwards.
TEAM MVP: LeBron James
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Malik Monk
#3: Utah Jazz
2021 Finish: 1st Northwest | 1st West | 52-20
Playoff Finish: Lost in West Semifinals to Clippers (6 games)
If the rankings were about what teams have the best shot at winning the 2022 championship, the Jazz, on paper, should be lower than the Lakers. Too many flameouts and less star power at the top of the roster makes it harder to pick the Jazz. However, they are a regular season juggernaut with loads of continuity. Since the 2016 season, they have had the league’s best defensive rating by far. They indeed had the best record in the league last season, with a dominant point differential, but when they came up short of the Conference Finals it seemed to be an indictment of that regular season rather than a poor matchup and injuries to both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley. But when you look at it, the Jazz have to prove themselves in the playoffs for the opinion of them to change. After that flameout, they added the likes of Rudy Gay, Eric Paschall, and Hassan Whiteside for more frontcourt versatility and to provide a different look behind Rudy Gobert, and they added Jared Butler, who has been fearless in the preseason, leading all rookies in scoring with 18 points per game, in the 2nd round of the Draft, but will it be enough to support the All-Star trio of Mitchell, Gobert, and Conley when the playoffs come again? With Gobert’s rim protection as the anchor on the defense and his screen-setting and rim-rolling as the fulcrum on the offensive end, the Jazz will rack up a lot of regular season wins. However, they will be judged on playoff successes or failures.
HOT TAKE: The Jazz suffer a first round collapse and Quin Snyder is fired after the season.
TEAM MVP: Donovan Mitchell
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Eric Paschall
#2: Brooklyn Nets
2021 Finish: 2nd Atlantic | 2nd East | 48-24
Playoff Finish: Lost in East Semifinals to Bucks (7 games)
Whether Kyrie Irving plays or not, the Nets are in serious consideration for a title. In last season’s playoffs, with Irving out and James Harden playing on one leg, the Nets were just inches away of ending the Bucks’ season in the 2nd round. If Kevin Durant and Harden are healthy, it’s hard to imagine anyone beating the Nets in four out of seven games. They are 4th and 5th, respectively, in career offensive box plus/minus, trailing just Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry. And they have a legitimate supporting cast that includes Joe Harris, Patty Mills, Bruce Brown, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Nic Claxton, and James Johnson. The defensive issues still remain with the team, but there aren’t many other teams who can keep up with them in shootouts. They are a better team with Irving on the court, but it speaks to how deep the roster is and how special both Durant and Harden are that they could still win it all. But the whole drama with Irving is the latest of a long history of decisions that he has harmed his team, from the trade demands to his insane insistence on defending Giannis Antetokounmpo three years ago to walking out on his team multiple times in the last couple of seasons. And with Irving not taking the COVID vaccine, it led to GM Sean Marks announcing before the season that Irving will not play or practice with the team until he is “eligible to e a full participant.” Whether Irving believes that someone is going to have to stand up for the unvaccinated or that he is using it as a cover to not take the vaccine, he is taking a dangerous stance that goes against the health and safety of him, his teammates, and everyone else. He is still taking up a massive percentage of the salary cap, preventing the Nets from doing anything else with his salary, and is choosing not to play alongside his teammates. It seems as if there is no end to the soap opera, but given that Durant and Harden are still on the team, will it really affect their title chances that much?
HOT TAKE: Kyrie Irving does not play a game this season, but the Nets win a title without him anyway.
TEAM MVP: Kevin Durant
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jevon Carter
#1: Milwaukee Bucks
2021 finish: 1st Central | 3rd East | 46-26
Playoff Finish: NBA Champions—Beat Suns (6 games)
A fully healthy Nets team looked like it should be here, but the uncertainty around Kyrie Irving’s status makes the Bucks an easy pick for the top spot in the season-opening power rankings. They deserve to be in the top spot, at least until someone or something proves they don’t. Minus PJ Tucker, all the important pieces from the title run are back. Donte DiVincenzo, who missed the playoffs with an injury, will also return. Like the Jazz, the Bucks have loads of continuity and regular season success over the years. The difference is that the Bucks ended theirs with a championship. They also have an all-time great who is at or near the peak of his career. Giannis Antetokounmpo already has two MVPs, a Defensive Player of the Year, and a Finals MVP to his resume, and he now knows the sky is the limit. This self-actualization he achieved last year makes him even more dangerous. Don’t be surprised if he comes back hungrier than ever to defend his title. He is the ultimate competition with a limitless work ethic. The confidence gained from the title run should benefit them, and they look even deeper than they were last year. Jordan Nwora looks ready to be part of the rotation, putting up 17.8 points per game in five preseason contests. Grayson Allen can stand at the shooting guard position until or even past Donte DiVincenzo’s return. George Hill and Semi Ojeleye can have similar performances to what Bryn Forbes and Tucker did last season. Depth aside, they are sticking to their stars. Jrue Holiday is having the time of his life, putting player after player on clamps and proving to be the defensive ace of Team USA’s Olympics team. He should only get more comfortable in his 2nd season with the team after a full offseason, and he should be a strong pick for First Team All-Defense. This team can very much go back-to-back.
HOT TAKE: Giannis Antetokounmpo wins NBA MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and NBA Finals MVP as the Bucks repeat as champions.
TEAM MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Jordan Nwora
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