Here we are.
Now that the regular season is over, the real fun is going to start.
Week 18 was a surprisingly fun ride that set the slate for the playoffs. The Colts’ playoff hopes were crushed by a frustrating loss to the Jaguars, while the 49ers, Steelers, and Raiders all punched their playoff tickets with dramatic overtime wins over the Rams, Ravens, and Chargers, respectively.
For 18 of the 32 teams, their season has come to an end.
But for the 14 teams in the playoffs, the pressure has gone up by ten notches. Lose another game and the season is over. Pull off a few more consecutive wins, and you will be the winners of Super Bowl LVI.
Two teams—the Packers and Titans—have earned a first round bye by finishing first in their conferences. The other 12 teams will start off in Super Wild Card Weekend.
Time to get to the power rankings—playoffs edition. Included will be the X-factors each team needs for the playoffs and a sleeper player to watch from them throughout the playoffs, both on offense and defense.
#14: (A7) Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 18 @ BAL: W, 16-13 (OT) | Final Record: 9-7-1
Wild Card Opponent: at KC | Odds: +7000
This Steelers team is so hard to watch.
Every other AFC team not named the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Cincinnati Bengals had the chance to put them out of their misery.
All have failed.
Had the Colts not choked in epic fashion in Jacksonville, and/or had Brandon Staley not called timeout, what the Steelers did in Baltimore would not have mattered.
Ben Roethlisberger’s best days are obviously well behind him, and the passing game consists primarily of throws traveling between two and five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. But he has played well enough to keep his team in games, leading three game-winning drives this season—two of them against the Ravens.
Even Ravens defensive lineman Calais Campbell admitted that Roethlisberger deserves credit for leading the Steelers to the Week 18 victory.
“You’ve got to pay respect where respect is due,” said Campbell. “We made it hard on him and he kept coming. He made the plays he needed to. Big Ben, he’s a legend for making the plays in critical moments. He’s a warrior.”
The offense is reliant on the quartet of Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth racking up the yards and touchdowns.
Somehow, this is effective enough to help them finish 9-7-1 and drunkenly stumble their way to the playoffs. This skill position group is talented enough to make some big plays against a Chiefs defense that has struggled in recent weeks, but pulling off the massive upset on Super Wild Card Weekend is going to get a lot more than that.
Turnovers have to be avoided. If that is not managed, it would be impossible for the Steelers to keep pace with the Chiefs.
Logically, the Chiefs are more than equipped to easily handle the Steelers, but most people thought the same about the Ravens, Browns, and Titans. But this game is essentially like having an uninvited guest come to a party, yet nobody knows how to get rid of said uninvited guest.
That shows that the Steelers are the creeping dread of the AFC bracket.
Their best chance is an otherworldly performance by the defense. It starts with TJ Watt, who tied Michael Strahan for the single-season sack record (22.5).
If Watt, Cam Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick and the rest of the defense can generate game-changing plays, the Steelers can keep things interesting.
Not to mention Big Ben and Mike Tomlin have Super Bowl-winning experience, so that can’t be ignored, either, even with parts of the passing game and the defense not close to the championship standards of the past.
But unless Big Ben can dig deep on his firepower, this game is pretty much going to be a sad end to his career.
X-Factors
Offense: JuJu Smith-Schuster
Defense: Devin Bush Jr.
Sleepers: James Washington (offense), Ahkello Witherspoon (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Najee Harris
WR: Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster
TE: Pat Freiermuth
OL: Dan Moore Jr. (LT), John Leglue (LG), Kendrick Green (C), Trai Turner (RG), Chukwuma Okorafor (RT)
DL: Chris Wormley (LDL), Cameron Heyward (RDL)
EDGE: TJ Watt (WLB), Alex Highsmith (SLB)
ILB: Devin Bush Jr. (LILB), Joe Schobert (RILB)
CB: Joe Haden (LCB), Cam Sutton (RCB), Arthur Maulet (NB)
S: Terrell Edmunds (SS), Minkah Fitzpatrick (FS)
ST: Chris Boswell (K), Pressley Harvin III (P), Christian Kuntz (LS)
RS: Ray-Ray McCloud
#13: (N7) Philadelphia Eagles
Week 18 vs. DAL: L, 26-51 | Final Record: 9-8
Wild Card Opponent: at TB | Odds: +5500
The Eagles are more of a fun story than a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Their recent loss to the Cowboys is not a referendum of them. Jalen Hurts and the majority of the starters sat out of Week 18, which explains the 51-26 beatdown.
Nick Sirianni was clear about his motives for resting his guys.
“We thought it was an opportunity to get [Jalen Hurts] back to 100 percent,” said Sirianni. “We need to be able to have our full arsenal of offense going into the playoffs.”
That they made the playoffs after starting 3-6 is somewhat surprising. But once they got into the smashmouth philosophy, they won six of their final eight games.
By the end of the season, Hurts, Miles Sanders (who is dealing with a broken hand), Boston Scott, and Jordan Howard combined to power a ground attack that led the league with 159.7 yards per game.
This ground game allowed the Eagles to dictate the tempo of games and to keep the pressure off the defense.
That’s one fact.
Another is that they are 9-8 and have finished exactly one game above .500, having downed the Saints in Week 11.
It’s intriguing to see if the smashmouth approach can wreak havoc in the playoffs. Any team with a dominant O-line and one of the league’s most dangerous ground attacks cannot be downplayed.
It can cause problems for the Buccaneers defense, which hasn’t been sharp against the run as of late.
Hurts is going to be their biggest X-factor—he’s a versatile dual-threat QB who can change the math of a run game, and has a knack for scrambling for first downs. If his ankle allows him to be a playmaker, this run game can do damage to scare an NFC contender.
He will have to do damage with his arm if the Eagles are going to go anywhere, but with Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith making up most of the receiving yardage, this is on the table.
They played the Bucs tough at home in Week 6, losing 28-22, but their struggles against the run and covering tight ends on the other side of the ball don’t bode well for them. Teams also don’t run the ball well against the Bucs—no team in the NFC has given up fewer yards on the ground in the regular season.
They also don’t have a lot of depth on their lineups.
They are basically playing with house money at this point after outperforming expectations. An upset is not out of the question, but it’s unlikely.
X-Factors
Offense: Jalen Hurts
Defense: Javon Hargrave
Sleepers: Boston Scott (offense), TJ Edwards (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Miles Sanders
WR: DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor
TE: Dallas Goedert
OL: Jordan Mailata (LT), Landon Dickerson (LG), Jason Kelce (C), Nate Herbig (RG), Lane Johnson (RT)
DE: Josh Sweat (LDE), Derek Barnett (RDE)
DT: Javon Hargrave (LDT), Fletcher Cox (RDT)
LB: Alex Singleton (WLB), TJ Edwards (MLB), Genard Avery (SLB)
CB: Darius Slay Jr. (LCB), Avonte Maddox (RCB)
S: Rodney McLeod Jr. (SS), Anthony Harris (FS)
ST: Jake Elliott (K), Arryn Siposs (P), Rick Lovato (FS)
RS: Jason Huntley (KR), Jalen Reagor (PR)
#12: (A5) Las Vegas Raiders
Week 18 vs. LAC: W, 35-32 (OT) | Final Record: 10-7
Wild Card Opponent: at CIN | Odds: +4100
The Raiders are the most resilient team in the league.
They were left for dead after a blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 14, but closed out the season with four straight wins to advance to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Their overtime thriller against the Chargers was an instant classic. They took control of the game in the 2nd half, coughed up a 15-point 4th quarter lead, but instead of taking a knee at the end of OT to send both teams to the playoffs, they decided to kick the game-winning field goal to send the Chargers packing.
They’re out here making the late John Madden proud.
“I just have this weird feeling in my heart like, ‘The job’s not done,’” said Derek Carr after the game. “Like my favorite player, Kobe [Bryant], said, ‘Job’s not done.’”
Carr is playing some of the best football of his career. Josh Jacobs is running hard. Hunter Renfrow had a breakout season. Darren Waller is back. A defense led by Maxx Crosby is better than people realize.
It’s a nice story on how they overcame all sorts of adversity and rallied around interim head coach Rich Bisaccia, who is likely going to have the interim tag taken off of him soon.
Despite the controversy surrounding Jon Gruden and his resignation, despite the high-speed crash involving Henry Ruggs III, despite Damon Arnette’s video, despite the DUI arrest of Nate Hobbs, Bisaccia deserves credit for keeping the team together.
Are they a legitimate threat to teams like the Chiefs, Titans and Bills? Not really. But the Bengals have to realize the Raiders are no slouch.
It is hard to envision the Raiders getting past the first round, but the pieces are in place.
They will continue to rely on the automatic connection between Carr and Renfrow, as well as the return of Waller and the resurgence of Jacobs.
Crosby is coming off an 11-pressure performance against the Chargers, and closed the regular season as the league leader in total pressures, with 101. He and Yannick Ngakoue are a fearsome pass rush duo that can create problems for the pass-protection-deficient Bengals, even if this game is in Cincy and even with the Bengals having a well-rested Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon coming back.
X-Factors
Offense: Darren Waller
Defense: Denzel Perryman
Sleepers: Bryan Edwards (offense), Brandon Facyson (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Derek Carr
RB: Josh Jacobs
WR: Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, Zay Jones
TE: Foster Moreau
OL: Kolton Miller (LT), John Simpson (LG), Andre James (C), Alex Leatherwood (RG), Brandon Parker (RT)
DE: Maxx Crosby (LDE), Yannick Ngakoue (RDE)
DT: Johnathan Hankins (LDT), Quinton Jefferson (RDT)
LB: Divine Deablo (LILB), Denzel Perryman (RILB)
CB: Brandon Facyson (LCB), Casey Hayward Jr. (RCB), Nate Hobbs (NB)
S: Dallin Leavitt (SS), Tre’von Moehrig (FS)
ST: Daniel Carlson (K), AJ Cole III (P), Trent Sieg (LS)
RS: Peyton Barber (KR), Hunter Renfrow (PR)
#11: (A6) New England Patriots
Week 18 @ MIA: L, 24-33 | Final Record: 10-7
Wild Card Opponent: at BUF | Odds: +2100
The Patriots looked like the team to beat for a solid chunk of the middle of the season. They won seven straight games from Week 17 to Week 13, where they paired a dominant, turnover-creating defense with a smashmouth ground game and a well-managed pass attack led by Mac Jones.
They were playing exactly how you would expect a Bill Belichick-coached team: Understanding assignments, executing to perfection, and taking care of the football.
They showed they can beat their opponents in a variety of ways, whether it be by the air or by the ground. They looked like a team that could dominate through the holidays and heading into the playoffs.
But they come into the playoffs having lost three of their last four, losing control of the AFC East and drop to the 6th seed in the AFC.
One of those losses was by getting ripped 33-21 to the Bills at home. They also had the opportunity to win the division if they defeated the Dolphins and the Bills lost to the Jets.
Neither happened.
Jones threw a pick six and lost a fumble in the game and enters the playoffs as a question mark. Belichick said after the game that he wasn’t pleased with how the team performed.
“Played poorly, coached poorly, didn’t do anything well,” said Belichick. “Just too many mistakes. Way too many. We’ll go look at the film, turn the page here, make some corrections and move onto next week. That’s really about it.”
They mostly beat up on bad teams and their win over the Titans looks like ancient history now. Outside of their 50-burger on the Jaguars, the offense struggled to score, finishing with 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games.
They still have the pieces to excel like they did in their seven-game winning streak, but they have to figure out how to make key defensive stops and stop turning the ball over (Jones threw five interceptions in the last four games).
It’s not easy to flip the switch. Belichick’s effort to get his team back to the playoffs on the reliance of the defense and the ground game is remarkable, but they need to seriously turn things around if they want to go deep.
X-Factors
Offense: Damien Harris
Defense: Adrian Phillips
Sleepers: Rhamondre Stevenson (offense), Ja’Whaun Bentley (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
WR: Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne
TE: Hunter Henry
OL: Justin Herron (LT), Ted Karras (LG), David Andrews (C), Shaq Mason (RG), Trent Brown (RT)
DE: Christian Barmore (LDE), Davon Godchaux (NT), Lawrence Guy (RDE)
EDGE: Matt Judon (WLB), Kyle Van Noy (SLB)
ILB: Dont’a Hightower (LILB), Ja’Whaun Bentley (RILB)
CB: JC Jackson (LCB), Myles Bryant (RCB)
S: Kyle Dugger (SS), Devin McCourty (FS)
ST: Nick Folk (K), Jake Bailey (P), Joe Cardona (LS)
RS: Gunner Olszewski
#10: (N5) Arizona Cardinals
Week 18 vs. SEA: L, 30-38 | Final Record: 11-6
Wild Card Opponent: at LAR | Odds: +2100
Good luck figuring out the Cardinals.
When they started 7-0 and at other times, they looked like the best team in the NFC. They spent a chunk of the season as the NFC’s top seed.
But they sputtered down the stretch, losing four of their final six games following their bye, including a walloping to the Lions and squandering a chance to win the NFC West and a chance to host a home playoff game when falling in the regular season finale against a bad Seahawks team.
The consolation was their Week 17 win over the Cowboys and played five of the 13 other playoff teams, but they will have to dig deep if they were to make noise in the playoffs.
Perhaps their flameout may be for the best: They are 3-5 at home, but are 8-1 on the road. There is a huge difference in results, and they beat the Rams at SoFi Stadium in Week 4.
Kyler Murray is one of the most dynamic players in the sport, and he can either carry them for a while or completely flame out.
The O-line didn’t do him any favors either, as they have struggled to protect him as of late—he was sacked five times in the Week 18 loss.
The team’s injuries on offense have taken their toll—DeAndre Hopkins is continuing to nurse an MCL injury, and he may not return in time for the Monday Night wild card match. James Conner and Chase Edmonds are both banged up, leaving their statuses up in the air.
The combination of AJ Green, Christian Kirk, and Zach Ertz hasn’t been enough to get the Cardinals over on top.
Kliff Kingsbury made it clear to reporters that the team needs to start looking towards their third match with the Rams.
“Everybody is zero and zero and our guys understand that,” said Kingsbury. “We are disappointed today, but we got to get it out of our system quick and come back because anything can happen once you make the postseason.”
What’s worse is that the Cardinals have struggled to slow down the Rams in the past three seasons. Kingsbury is 1-5 in his career against Sean McVay’s group, and that one win is the aforementioned road win this season.
The Rams returned the favor with a Week 14.
This sparks the question on if Kingsbury’s team can reemerge into the dominant version of the Cardinals that we saw early in the season. The third-year head coach and his team will have their hands on deck, and will have to play mistake-free football if they were to advance.
X-Factors
Offense: Kyler Murray
Defense: JJ Watt
Sleepers: Zach Ertz (offense), Jalen Thompson (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: James Conner
WR: AJ Green, Rondale Moore, Christian Kirk
TE: Zach Ertz
OL: DJ Humphries (LT), Justin Pugh (LG), Rodney Hudson (C), Max Garcia (RG), Kelvin Beachum (RT)
DL: JJ Watt (LDE), Corey Peters (NT), Zach Allen (RDE)
EDGE: Chandler Jones (WLB), Markus Golden (SLB)
ILB: Jordan Hicks (LILB), Isaiah Simmons (RILB)
CB: Byron Murphy Jr. (LCB), Marco Wilson (RCB)
S: Jalen Thompson (SS), Budda Baker (FS)
ST: Matt Prater (K), Andy Lee (P), Aaron Brewer (LS)
RS: Rondale Moore
#9: (N6) San Francisco 49ers
Week 18 @ LAR: W, 27-24 (OT) | Final Record: 10-7
Wild Card Opponent: at DAL | Odds: +2400
After falling 17-3 at halftime and looking at a playoff elimination, the 49ers did something that has never been done before: Beat a Sean McVay-coached team that was leading at halftime.
This game itself shows why it’s hard to even figure out the Niners heading into the playoffs.
When Deebo Samuel is tearing through the field or Nick Bosa is terrorizing opposing QBs, they look like they can beat anyone. However, Jimmy Garoppolo, who played through a torn ligament on his throwing thumb, had a pair of costly turnovers, and the secondary is held together with Scotch tape.
The offense is a thing of beauty, a playmaker-packed group finishing the season 5th in DVOA and can go punch for punch with anyone.
That is as long as Garoppolo isn’t prone to turnovers. His 68% completion rate, 98.7 passer rating, and 8.6 yards-per-attempt average are impressive.
But his brilliant plays are at times overshadowed by boneheaded mistakes.
He rebounded from a rough 1st half in which he threw a pick and put the Niners down 14 by playing lights out down the stretch, leading the offense to three separate touchdown drives before leading the game-winning field goal in OT.
If this version of Garoppolo is shown in the playoffs, they could make a serious run. That’s as long as he avoid back-breaking turnovers and lets his teammates do the rest.
With the versatile combination of Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings, Kyle Shanahan has limitless options when it comes to getting his top guys involved. They often blur the lines between receiver and running back, and there is no better coach at scheming guys open so they can run after the catch than Shanahan.
He has done a great job at turning them back around and they have positive elements resembling their NFC Championship run, including a reliable ground game headlined by 6th round rookie Elijah Mitchell, said versatile passing game, and a deadly front seven.
But the pass defense can be overwhelmed, and that’s where the front seven is tasked to mask some of the minuses on the secondary, which would have a bad matchup considering they’re going to have to cover CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, and the Cowboys’ pass attack.
This is the perfect setup for one of the most exciting and wide-open matches of Super Wild Card Weekend.
X-Factors
Offense: Jimmy Garoppolo
Defense: Azeez Al-Shaair
Sleepers: Jauan Jennings (offense), Emmanuel Moseley (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Elijah Mitchell
WR: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings
TE: George Kittle
OL: Trent Williams (LT), Laken Tomlinson (LG), Alex Mack (C), Daniel Brunskill (RG), Tom Compton (RT)
DE: Arik Armstead (LDE), Nick Bosa (RDE)
DT: Kentavius Street (LDT), DJ Jones (RDT)
LB: Fred Warner (LILB), Dre Greenlaw (RILB)
CB: Emmanuel Moseley (LCB), Josh Norman (RCB), K’Waun Williams (NB)
S: Jaquiski Tartt (SS), Jimmie Ward (FS)
ST: Robbie Gould (K), Mitch Wishnowsky (P), Taybor Pepper (LS)
RS: Ambry Thomas (KR), Brandon Aiyuk (PR)
#8: (A4) Cincinnati Bengals
Week 18 @ CLE: L, 16-21 | Final Record: 10-7
Wild Card Opponent: vs. LV | Odds: +1700
For the first time since 2015, the Bengals have made it to the big dance.
The common saying is that defense wins championships. However, one can argue that it is actually offense that wins championships.
Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic wrote that in a column, and there is a viable argument for that.
19 of the last 20 teams that made it to conference championships in the past five seasons finished with a top 10 offense that season, per DVOA.
This season’s top 10 includes eight playoff teams: The Bucs, Packers, Chiefs, 49ers, Cowboys, Rams, Patriots, and Bills. The ability to score at will, control the clock, and play keep-away from opponents has been very effective in the playoffs.
The Bengals are not among those teams—they finished 18th in offensive DVOA. But they get a pass because of how they have moved the ball and scored at will in the past few weeks.
It’s tough to ignore how Joe Burrow has been on a tear to close out the regular season. He is a superstar in the making and is torching defenses the same way he did at LSU.
He benefited from a banged-up Ravens secondary in Week 16, but the way he torched the previously red-hot Chiefs defense in Week 17 was the exclamation point.
In his last two starts, he threw for 971 yards, eight touchdowns, and no picks while averaging 11.4 yards per attempt with a 145.6 passer rating. Ja’Marr Chase, another player from the famed NFLSU team, also known as the 2019 LSU team that won the national championship, has been a revelation, breaking Chad Johnson’s single-season franchise record for receiving yards, and broke the NFL record for most receiving yards by a rookie, with 266 in Week 17, previously held by the Bills’ Jerry Butler in 1979 (255).
Zac Taylor told reporters that where “rest vs. rust” is brought up, he decided the former was more important.
“No perfect decision there,” said Taylor. “We felt like we needed to be healthy next week. There were so many things out of our control with the seedings at stake that we felt it was better to rest them.”
This is a time of excitement for long-suffering Bengals fans.
But some are wanting to be cautious: The last time they won a playoff game, Taylor was just 7 years old. But they showed they can do damage in the playoffs.
They’re not perfect, but they are white-hot on offense, and it gives them a big chance.
And that’s not to mention their other weapons on offense in Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
Their defensive upgrades in Trey Hendrickson, Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton and Vonn Bell are paying off big. Hendrickson, in particular, can be a big factor for them in the playoffs.
If Taylor lets loose against the Raiders and Burrow does his thing, they should be in good shape.
But the only things that can hold them back are lack of experience, a suspect O-line, and an inconsistent secondary. That second one is troubling if the pass rushing duo of Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue start breaking free.
Getting the franchise’s first playoff win since 1990 would be a big achievement, but a Super Bowl run isn’t likely.
X-Factors
Offense: Tee Higgins
Defense: Vonn Bell
Sleepers: CJ Uzomah (offense), Chidobe Awuzie (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd
TE: CJ Uzomah
OL: Jonah Williams (LT), Quinton Spain (LG), Trey Hopkins (C), Hakeem Adeniji (RG), Isaiah Prince (RT)
DE: Sam Hubbard (LDE), Trey Hendrickson (RDE)
DT: DJ Reader (LDT), Larry Ogunjobi (RDT)
LB: Logan Wilson (LILB), Markus Bialey (RILB)
CB: Eli Apple (LCB), Chidobe Awuzie (RCB), Mike Hilton (NB)
S: Vonn Bell (SS), Jessie Bates III (FS)
ST: Evan McPherson (K), Kevin Huber (P), Clark Harris (LS)
RS: Trent Taylor
#7: (A3) Buffalo Bills
Week 18 vs. NYJ: W, 27-10 | Final Record: 11-6
Wild Card Opponent: vs. NE | Odds: +750
For the second time in as many seasons, the Bills are AFC East champions.
The defense toyed with the Jets in Week 18 all game long, putting up nine sacks and held the last-place Jets to just 53 total net yards—the lowest single-game total in Jets history.
It wasn’t pretty in all facets: The Bills offense underwhelmed against inferior competition for the second straight week, which draws questions on if Josh Allen and co. can flip the switch in a third meeting with the Patriots.
Allen made it clear to reporters that they have ways to go before this season can be considered a success.
“Nobody at the end of their career looks back and really figures out how many times you won your division. I think the main goal is the Super Bowl,” said Allen. “It’s great, it’s fine, hats and shirts are cool. But at the end of the day, we’ve got a lot more work to do.”
The Bills felt they were ready to be the new kings of the AFC when they beat the Chiefs, but they went through their own pass-happy slump when Allen had his fair share of breakdowns.
Both he and Patrick Mahomes look to be back on track, however, leaning on the ground game while the defense clamps down.
This defense finished the season 1st in DVOA, with a pass rushing front ever so fearsome.
This is a well-coached unit by Sean McDermott, and Allen is the glue that holds the offense together.
His numbers may have dropped off slightly from last season, finishing with fewer passing yards (4,544 in 2020, 4,407 in 2021), fewer touchdown passes (37 in 2020, 36 in 2021), more interceptions (10 in 2020, 15 in 2021), and a worse passer rating (107.2 in 2020, 92.2 in 2021) and yards per attempt average (7.9 in 2020, 6.8 in 2021).
While a regression was warranted, considering how efficient he has been last season, he is still more than capable of taking over a game.
He has vulnerabilities, and they have manifested in big games before, but when he is at his best, he puts his team on his back.
His dual-threat talent both as a passer and a runner is something we haven’t seen since Cam Newton in his prime. Whether they are looking to convert a 3rd down or punch the ball in the end zone, Allen can do it.
He has one of the strongest arms in the league and he can get the ball into tight coverage or even connect on a 60-yard bomb. If the situation calls for it, he is basically a 6’ 5”, 237-pound fullback with full-blown speed, breaking through arm tackles and truck-stick defenders on his way for the score.
He has thrown two touchdowns and three picks in his past two weeks, but the Bills have outscored their opponents 56-25. They rely on him heavily on offense, and they can win games even if he struggles because of this defense.
Should a rematch with the Chiefs happen, nothing will come easy this time around.
X-Factors
Offense: Devin Singletary
Defense: Tremaine Edmunds
Sleepers: Gabriel Davis (offense), Levi Wallace (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley
TE: Dawson Knox
OL: Dion Dawkins (LT), Ryan Bates (LG), Mitch Morse (C), Daryl Williams (RG), Spencer Brown (RT)
DE: Gregory Rousseau (LDE), Jerry Hughes (RDE)
DT: Star Lotulelei (LDT), Ed Oliver (RDT)
LB: Matt Milano (WLB), Tremaine Edmunds (MLB), AJ Klein (SLB)
CB: Taron Johnson (LCB), Levi Wallace (RCB)
S: Jordan Poyer (SS), Micah Hyde (FS)
ST: Tyler Bass (K), Matt Haack (P), Reid Ferguson (LS)
RS: Isaiah McKenzie
#6: (N3) Dallas Cowboys
Week 18 @ PHI: W, 51-26 | Final Record: 12-5
Wild Card Opponent: vs. SF | Odds: +1100
Yes, their beatdown of the Eagles came against mostly backups, but it should help shake off the doubts about the offense that has been rusty recently.
Those doubts seemed silly considering they lead the league in both yards per game and points per game. Dak Prescott threw five touchdown passes, getting him 35 on the season, passing Tony Romo for the franchise record for touchdowns in a season and impressing head coach Mike McCarthy.
“I just think it’s a helluva year for a guy that was in a slump,” said McCarthy. “He’s special. He’s a special man. He’s a tremendous leader. Hopefully he’ll get some recognition for how he plays the game on the field.”
It’s hard to get a clear read on the Cowboys.
There are moments where they look like the best team in the NFL, so it’s not surprising that they finished first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
On defense, they can take over a game and suffocate opposing quarterbacks with pass rushers like DeMarcus Lawrence, Micah Parsons, and Randy Gregory.
When that group is paired with a good day for the offense, they play like a true Super Bowl contender.
When Dak is on his game, distributing the ball to Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, or any of the playmaking pass catchers, the offense is unstoppable.
But there is a problem: They don’t always play up to their potential.
Through the past few months, the unit has been all over the map with its ineffectiveness. Dak’s accuracy has come and gone—possibly a result of the midseason calf injury—and the run game under Ezekiel Elliott has been unreliable.
Strangely, a microcosm of the whole thing is how wildly Elliott appears from game to game: One week, he looks like he’s running in mud. The next, he’ll look like he turned the clock back to 2016.
He has been battling injuries for the past few weeks, but there is seemingly little reason to which version we will see any given game.
McCarthy’s group has no problem beating up division foes down the stretch, but the big question remains: Can they play like bullies against superior competition? Their upside shows that the sky is the limit for them.
They will have to figure out how to achieve their fullest potential against a surging 49ers team.
Knowing how they did this season, they are either one-and-done or a true Super Bowl contender. With no in between.
X-Factors
Offense: Dak Prescott
Defense: Trevon Diggs
Sleepers: Cedrick Wilson (offense), Anthony Brown (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR: CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson
TE: Dalton Schultz
OL: Tyron Smith (LT), Connor Williams (LG), Tyler Biadasz (C), Zack Martin (RG), La’el Collins (RT)
DE: DeMarcus Lawrence (LDE), Randy Gregory (RDE)
DT: Neville Gallimore (LDT), Carlos Watkins (RDT)
LB: Leighton Vander Esch (LILB), Micah Parsons (RILB)
CB: Anthony Brown (LCB), Trevon Diggs (RCB), Jourdan Lewis (NB)
S: Jayron Kearse (SS), Damontae Kazee (FS)
ST: Greg Zuerlein (K), Bryan Anger (P), Jake McQuaide (LS)
RS: Tony Pollard (KR), CeeDee Lamb (PR)
#5: (N4) Los Angeles Rams
Week 18 vs. SF: L, 24-27 | Final Record: 12-5
Wild Card Opponent: vs. ARZ | Odds: +950
“What if.” That’s the thought that is plaguing the Rams in the final week of the regular season.
They were crushing a 49ers team towards an NFC West title and the 2nd seed in the NFC. Ever since Sean McVay became the head coach, they never lost a game they led at halftime.
They went on to blow leads of 17-0 and 24-17 in an ugly overtime loss that creates doubt about the NFC West champions as the playoffs begin. They are now the 4th seed and will have to face the Cardinals for the third time this season.
Two Matt Stafford interceptions played a big role in the loss, including the game-sealing pick by Ambry Thomas.
McVay didn’t do any favors, either, as he opted to run the ball three times and punt it back to the Niners in the final minutes of regulation.
The Niners responded with an 88-yard touchdown drive (with no timeouts) before finishing off the Rams in front of tens of thousands of Niners fans at LA.
The veteran QB even admitted after the game he has to play better.
“It’s important for our team, no question,” he said. “The better I play, the better chance we have. That’s NFL football. When the quarterback plays good, you’ve got a good chance. I know that, so looking forward to the opportunity of going to play in the postseason. Taking it one game at a time.”
This Rams team is still good, but they will only go as far as Stafford takes them.
Statistically, he was great during the regular season, and he makes unbelievable throws look easy.
He gives this offense the explosive potential it needs to make a run to the Lombardi. He is capable of making impossible throws and activated every level of the deep passing attack all season. He changes the way defenses play the Rams, stretching opposing coverages thin, and gives his team the ability to make game-changing plays through the air.
He was the main reason Cooper Kupp won the regular season triple crown in receiving (most receptions, yards, and touchdowns), and was an integral part of the Rams’ journey to 12 wins this season.
His inconsistency as a passer could be the Rams’ doom.
The contrast between his elite upside and his pedestrian downside can be summed up by his three touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss to the Niners.
The loss featured a handful of Stafford highlight throws along with boneheaded mistakes, a microcosm of his 2021: So good yet so bad at the same time.
With a series of big-time trades and flashy offseason acquisitions, the Rams are going all-in this season with the hopes of being the second team to win a Super Bowl at their home stadium.
They have that power to do so, especially with Aaron Donald, Kupp, Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller, Odell Beckham Jr., and even Stafford are doing their thing.
But again, their playoff run rests on Stafford’s shoulders. If the good side of Stafford shows up, they have a good chance of going all the way. If Stat Padford shows up, they will not last long.
X-Factors
Offense: Matt Stafford
Defense: Von Miller
Sleepers: Van Jefferson (offense), Troy Reeder (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Matt Stafford
RB: Sony Michel
WR: Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson
TE: Tyler Higbee
OL: Andrew Whitworth (LT), David Edwards (LG), Brian Allen (C), Austin Corbett (RG), Rob Havenstein (RT)
DL: A’Shawn Robinson (LDE), Greg Gaines (NT), Aaron Donald (RDE)
EDGE: Leonard Floyd (WLB), Von Miller (SLB)
ILB: Christian Rozeboom (LILB), Troy Reeder (RILB)
CB: Darious Williams (LCB), Jalen Ramsey (RCB)
S: Nick Scott (SS), Terrell Burgess (FS)
ST: Matt Gay (K), Johnny Hekker (P), Matt Orzech (LS)
RS: Brandon Powell
#4: (A1) Tennessee Titans
Week 18 @ HOU: W, 28-25 | Final Record: 12-5
First Round Bye | Odds: +850
As weird as this sounds, the Titans are happy they won’t have to face the Texans again this season. In Week 11, they were stunned at home. After taking a 21-0 lead in Week 18, they still needed to hang on for dear life to not give up the 1st seed in the AFC.
But they won, and they clinched a first round bye.
Ryan Tannehill tied a career-high with four touchdown passes and escaped trouble in the 4th quarter to deliver one of the clutchest completions on the season.
We didn’t see that kind of performance from him throughout the season, but he enters the playoffs fully battle-tested and with an arsenal of weapons at his disposal.
He has broken out of his passing slump tied to having the trio of Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones back for the playoffs making key plays.
They survived the second half of the season with Henry on the sideline, having to rotate at running back between D’Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols, but the big playmaking back’s presence should give opponents a hard-to-reproduce factor on planning how to defend the offense.
Henry is a huge game-changer that must be accounted for. He is capable of changing games, so opponents are going to load up to try and stop the ground game.
“We have some time to make that decision and we will evaluate where we are at,” Mike Vrabel said of Henry. “But I think that he looked good. We continue to track his speed and his mileage and volume and see how he responds. I feel good about where he’s at.”
This will be a welcome sight for Tannehill, whose play action pass attack goes well with Henry’s ground game. It’s good for a team that has been up-and-down all season long, battling injury after injury to key players, snagging impressive wins over the Bills, Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, and Saints, while also losing in trap games to the Jets and Texans.
This inconsistency is a red flag, but it’s very hard to ignore how the stars have aligned for them heading into the playoffs. Not to mention they play a physical style of football and play very good situational football.
Their loud fanbase also should play a factor into this.
To say that the Titans needed this week off is an understatement. They were keeping their heads above water and were staying alive after Henry’s injury, getting necessary wins, forging important relationships, and built swagger.
For the first time this season, we might realize the true potential of the Titans. They and the Packers are both the top seeds in their respective conference. They both won with balance. They are both built to wear defenses down.
While Tannehill is nowhere near the level of Aaron Rodgers, both QBs are capable of creating explosive plays in the air. The Titans are well-positioned and well-coached to have a high ceiling. The only ones who can stop them are themselves.
X-Factors
Offense: Derrick Henry
Defense: Harold Landry
Sleepers: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (offense), Kristian Fulton (defense)
Divisional Round Projected Starters
QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Derrick Henry
WR: AJ Brown, Julio Jones, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TE: Geoff Swaim
OL: Taylor Lewan (LT), Rodger Saffold III (LG), Ben Jones (C), Nate Davis (RG), David Quessenberry (RT)
DL: Jeffery Simmons (LDE), Teair Tart (NT), Denico Autry (RDE)
EDGE: Harold Landry (WLB), Bud Dupree (SLB)
ILB: David Long Jr. (LILB), Zach Cunningham (RILB)
CB: Janoris Jenkins (LCB), Kristian Fulton (RCB)
S: Amani Hooker (SS), Kevin Byard (FS)
ST: Randy Bullock (K), Brett Kern (P), Morgan Cox (LS)
RS: Dontrell Hilliard (KR), Chester Rogers (PR)
#3: (N2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 18 vs. CAR: W, 41-17 | Final Record: 13-4
Wild Card Opponent: vs. PHI | Odds: +750
In terms of regular season wins, the 2021 Buccaneers are better than last season’s Super Bowl-winning team. The quest for their title defense moves on to the postseason, but Bruce Arians started off the week by stumping for his QB to win MVP.
“I think if he doesn’t get it, it’s a travesty,” said Arians. “Most completions ever, 5,000 yards, touchdowns—the whole nine yards. To me, it’s not even a close race.”
Brady does have a case for MVP, with yet another mind-blowing statistical season at 44.
But despite the fact that they are an excellent football team led by the GOAT, there is one issue that can derail their title defense: Injuries.
They were short their top two running backs—Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II—against the Panthers. Edge rushers Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul were sidelined, along with inside linebacker Lavonte David. Wide receiver Chris Godwin is out for the season. Antonio Brown was recently cut after his sideline temper tantrum and subsequent exit from MetLife Stadium.
That’s not to mention that Cyril Grayson and Richard Sherman were on the injury list as well, with Sherman, who signed with the Bucs earlier this season, landing on the IR.
Making matters worse on the injury bug is that they are facing an Eagles team that is relatively healthy heading into Super Wild Card Weekend.
Brady will look to Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski in the passing game, who are still reliable go-to pass catchers.
But he will have to prove that he remains without peer in elevating the players around him, which is an opportunity he will get when he is passing to depth guys like Tyler Johnson, Grayson, Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller, OJ Howard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn.
It’s a big ask for a 44-year-old signal-caller, but Brady should never be doubted upon.
He alone gives the Bucs the legitimacy in any conversation of the Super Bowl. Don’t underestimate his ability to move the ball with two quality playmakers healthy; this is a dangerous playoff team.
X-Factors
Offense: Rob Gronkowski
Defense: Lavonte David
Sleepers: Cyril Grayson (offense), Jordan Whitehead (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Ke’Shawn Vaughn
WR: Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate
OL: Donovan Smith (LT), Ali Marpet (LG), Ryan Jensen (C), Alex Cappa (RG), Tristan Wirfs (RT)
DL: Ndamukong Suh (LDE), Vita Vea (NT), William Gholston (RDE)
EDGE: Jason Pierre-Paul (WLB), Shaquil Barrett (SLB)
ILB: Devin White (LILB), Lavonte David (RILB)
CB: Carlton Davis (LCB), Sean Murphy-Bunting (RCB)
S: Antoine Winfield Jr. (SS), Jordan Whitehead (FS)
ST: Ryan Succop (K), Bradley Pinion (P), Zach Triner (LS)
RS: Jaelon Darden
#2: (A2) Kansas City Chiefs
Week 18 @ DEN: W, 28-24 | Final Record: 12-5
Wild Card Opponent: vs. PIT | Odds: +450
For the Chiefs, making the playoffs is no big deal. They are in the playoffs for the 7th consecutive season. Winning the AFC West is no biggie either. They have ruled the division since 2016.
The only goal in mind is a third straight AFC Championship and going to LA to win Super Bowl LVI.
Patrick Mahomes said to reporters after beating the Broncos that the team will have to play better than they did in Week 18 to get that goal.
“I just feel like we haven’t had that complete game yet,” said Mahomes. “We have the players—you see it week-in and week-out: The offense has a great game, the defense has a great game, the special teams have a great game. When we all come together and have that run of games, we’re a team that can win as much as we want to win.”
In a topsy-turvy season for them, who have alternated between issues on offense and on defense, and, at times, both, despite the worrisome slow start, they still managed to get back on track to where everyone thought they would be before the season: The kings of the AFC West.
Vegas oddsmakers have them as the AFC’s best chance for the run to glory, with DraftKings having them as the favorites at the conference.
That Bengals game is worrisome, however. Joe Burrow and his offensive core showed they can keep pace with Mahomes and co.
Even if the Chiefs are the favorites, they are far from certain to play at SoFi Stadium for the Big Game.
They looked more vulnerable this season than in the past two seasons, but the experience and coaching of Andy Reid cannot be downplayed. They won it as the 2nd seed behind the Ravens in 2019.
Mahomes’ interception luck changed in the second half of the season. In the first eight weeks of this season, he threw 19 touchdowns to a league-worst 10 picks, but the majority of the interceptions were either tipped at the line or dropped by his intended receiver.
He cleaned up on his decision-making in the final nine games to cut down on killer turnovers, but he also got more help from his pass-catchers, and has 18 touchdowns to three picks in that span.
Speaking of help, the injuries that slowed down Tyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could end up being blessings in disguise.
They have depth receivers like Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle getting more action late in the season. Darrell Williams has filled in nicely with CEH sidelined.
If that’s not enough, enter Derrick Gore and Jerick McKinnon. They have shown they can pick up the slack. The offense has typically run through Mahomes, Hill, and Travis Kelce, and when all three are on, look out.
But in a season where teams displayed more Cover 2 looks, forcing Mahomes to work the short and middle areas at a higher rate, the offense has found new ways to move the ball, and new players to lean on to score.
If Hardman, Pringle, and the backups at running back can step up and make plays in the postseason, they can make an already deadly offense even more deadly.
The defense, on the other side, has had a huge turnaround after being sluggish to start the season. Moving Chris Jones back to the interior defensive line has paid off big time.
The defense has taken on an aggressive approach implemented by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Guys like Charvarius Ward, Juan Thornhill, Nick Bolton and Melvin Ingram are making an impact on the unit.
The latter two were the heroes of the Chiefs’ Week 18 match with the Broncos—Ingram delivered the crushing hit on Melvin Gordon, and Bolton scooped up the loose ball and took it 86 yards to the house.
Even though they are not the top seed in the AFC, they are still the clear favorite to come out of the AFC.
The Patriots may be back in the playoffs, but Mahomes and Reid are what the Pats used to be with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick—the team to beat in the AFC until deemed otherwise.
X-Factors
Offense: Darrel Williams
Defense: Nick Bolton
Sleepers: Byron Pringle (offense), Charvarius Ward (defense)
Wild Card Weekend Projected Starters
QB: Patrick Mahomes II
RB: Darrel Williams
WR: Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle
TE: Travis Kelce
OL: Orlando Brown Jr. (LT), Joe Thuney (LG), Creed Humphrey (C), Trey Smith (RG), Andrew Wylie (RT)
DE: Melvin Ingram (LDE), Frank Clark (RDE)
DT: Chris Jones (LDT), Jarran Reed (RDT)
LB: Nick Bolton (WLB), Anthony Hitchens (MLB), Willie Gay (SLB)
CB: Charvarius Ward (LCB), L’Jarius Sneed (RCB)
S: Tyrann Mathieu (SS), Juan Thornhill (FS)
ST: Harrison Butker (K), Tommy Townsend (P), James Winchester (LS)
RS: Byron Pringle (KR), Mike Hughes (PR)
#1: (N1) Green Bay Packers
Week 18 @ DET: L, 30-37 | Final Record: 13-4
First Round Bye | Odds: +380
This season, the Packers did something no team in the NFL has done before: Winning 13 games for the third consecutive season.
Despite the inconsequential 37-30 loss to the Lions, they have the top seed in the NFC locked up. With a first round bye and with homefield advantage at Lambeau Field, it’s hard to overstate how well-positioned they are for a Super Bowl run.
Their bye not only frees them from any wild card game, but it also gives Aaron Rodgers and his injured toe some rehab.
They’re also getting key players back: Star corner Jaire Alexander has a chance to return in the divisional round after missing most of the season with a shoulder injury. All-Pro left tackle David Backhtiari, who was out since the start of the season with an ACL injury, will have an extra week to get back to full strength and improve his conditioning after making his season debut in Week 18. Center Josh Myers returned from a knee injury. The same can be said for wide receiver Randall Cobb (core injury) edge rusher Za’Darius Smith (back), while right tackle Billy Turner (knee) can return as early as the NFC Championship Game.
With the homefield advantage, they are built to exploit Green Bay’s extreme weather.
It starts with Rodgers, who is in position to win his 4th NFL MVP this season. They deserve to be the favorites with an offensive efficiency led by him and his near-unstoppable connection with Davante Adams, and the duo has been unbelievably efficient converting key third down and red zone situations.
Not to mention Rodgers can rely on others like Cobb, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Marcedes Lewis and Josiah Deguara.
However, in the off-chance that Rodgers has a bad day, or if the wind and snow prevent any execution on the pass attack, they lean towards their two-headed monster at running back in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Jones is explosive and can score from anywhere, while Dillon is someone no one wants to tackle as the game goes on and the temperature drops.
This is a perfectly balanced offense, and Matt LaFleur is a genius in orchestrating the group. His relationship with Rodgers and his knowledge on how to deploy the team’s full potential is what gives them a big edge in this year’s playoffs.
If that’s not enough, look out for their vastly improved all-around defense.
Despite playing most of the season without Alexander and Za’Darius Smith, they are aided by several key players they added to the team last offseason: De’Vondre Campbell has been having his best season of his career. The cornerback tandem of Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas have been filling in nicely for Alexander’s absence.
Mind you, Douglas was added off the Cardinals’ practice squad. He has five picks in the regular season.
This is a very dangerous team that can win it all this season. But at the same time, this is basically their last chance.
They have seen defeat in the NFC Championship Game the last two seasons. Winning the Super Bowl is a hard hump for them to get over. Lose, and they will very likely see key players walking in free agency.
X-Factors
Offense: David Bakhtiari
Defense: De'Vondre Campbell
Sleepers: Allen Lazard (offense), Eric Stokes (defense)
Divisional Round Projected Starters
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Aaron Jones
WR: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
TE: Josiah Deguara
OL: David Bakhtiari (LT), Jon Runyan (LG), Josh Myers (C), Royce Newman (RG), Dennis Kelly (RT)
DL: Dean Lowry (LDE), Kenny Clark (NT), Kingsley Keke (RDE)
EDGE: Preston Smith (WLB), Za’Darius Smith (SLB)
ILB: De’Vondre Campbell (LILB), Krys Barnes (RILB)
CB: Jaire Alexander (LCB), Rasul Douglas (RCB)
S: Adrian Amos (SS), Darnell Savage Jr. (FS)
ST: Mason Crosby (K), Corey Bojorquez (P), Steven Wirtel (LS)
RS: Amari Rodgers
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