As we go through our AFC North previews, we move on to the northeast side of Ohio to preview the Cleveland Browns.
After two decades of pain and misery, the Browns are back from the dead. Going from 0-16 to almost reaching the AFC Championship is an impressive accomplishment. Now they may be legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
The 2020 Browns were riding a red-hot offense to 11 wins in the regular season, and they are prepping for 2021 in revamping their defense. It appears that there will be nine new defensive starters at the beginning of a season for the Browns, with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward being the only two starters from the Browns’ roster at the beginning of the 2020 season.
Kevin Stefanski, the reigning AP NFL Coach of the Year, trusted Baker Mayfield more and more as the season progressed, and Mayfield was both efficient and aggressive. The Browns still are a top 3 rushing team in the league, and they will use the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to close out games. Expectations are higher for the franchise as a whole now.
Everyone from last season’s Browns offense is back. All 11 starters, the league’s best running back duo, a bruising O-line, and an intriguing receiver group led by Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr.
For OBJ, this is his last chance with the Browns; his contract goes no further than the 2022 season. He had a lot of big moments, but he hasn’t met his own lofty standards.
Mayfield and the passing game didn’t take off until OBJ was sidelined with a torn ACL, but the hope is that he can provide a vertical presence and help the offense reach their lofty standards this season.
Although Hunt is an explosive runner in his own right and is a passing option, it’s clear that during Chubb’s four-game injury absence last season that the offense was a lot better with him handling most of the work. It’s one of the reasons why he signed a three-year, $36M extension at the beginning of training camp.
Chubb has both size and breakaway speed, something that is rare to see in the NFL. Stefanski’s offense is designed to attack at multiple levels when the run game is used to set up the play action pass game.
Landry is the most reliable target, although Rashard Higgins delivered in big situations. Donovan Peoples-Jones wasn’t active for the first three games of the 2020 season, but he twice delivered big plays in emergency duty, and after OBJ’s injury, became almost a full-time player. DPJ is the tallest receiver on the Browns, at 6’ 2”, and the fastest when OBJ is not in the lineup.
The slow start for the passing game was understandable given the loss of the offseason and the coaching change, but once Mayfield got used to it, this got the Browns on a new level. In the last nine games, he threw just one pick.
The personnel are back, and so is the physical mindset. The emergence of right guard Wyatt Teller and the smart but luxurious signing of Jack Conklin at right tackle helped the Browns build a bashing O-line. Reliable veteran guard Joel Bitonio and center JC Tretter are among the league’s best at what they do, and left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. was solid in his rookie season in a new position.
Austin Hooper is the team’s starting tight end, and his blocking is a huge part of the Browns’ success on offense. He might not get to post the receiving numbers he wants, but Mayfield trusts Hooper to catch the ball.
David Njoku is entering the final season on his rookie contract trying to prove that he is worth the continued development. He has the speed to make big plays, but he has to compete with Hooper and second-year TE Harrison Bryant for snaps.
The Browns’ top offseason priority was loading up a defense that too often struggled to get off the field (25th in 3rd down defense) and to protect big leads. The Browns were good at creating turnovers (4th in takeaways), but their overall defensive numbers weren’t that good—20th in yards per play, 21st in scoring defense.
Garrett was dominant early in the season before he was slowed down late in the season with COVID; 9 of his 12 sacks came before the end of October. Ward was also solid as well, but, again, COVID slowed him down, along with injuries, forcing the Browns to play six different players in prominent roles at CB.
Most of those players are gone now. The Browns drafted Greg Newsome II in the 1st round, signed Troy Hill in free agency, and believe they will get Greedy Williams back after a nerve issue in his shoulder forced him to miss all of last season.
The big ticket free agency signing for them is John Johnson III, another move to solidify the secondary and help the Browns wash away the struggles with 3rd and 4th down defense. Johnson will play mostly at free safety but can play at several spots. Hill was one of the league’s best slot corners last season, but can also play on the outside. Williams and safety Grant Delpit are working their way back from injuries, and Ronnie Harrison played well last season when healthy.
Linebacker was the most concerning position last season for the Browns. This season, it’s defensive tackle after Larry Ogunjobi left in free agency and Sheldon Richardson was cut for financial reasons. The Browns addressed that issue by signing Malik Jackson. Andrew Billings is also coming back after opting out of last season, so that should ease the losses of Ogunjobi and Richardson.
The Browns still believe that they upgraded at D-line by signing edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Takk McKinley to one-year deals. Clowney joins Garrett in forming a duo composed of former 1st overall picks. The idea is that Clowney starts opposite Garrett and occasionally play on the inside. McKinley is another former 1st round pick who has battled injuries in the last two seasons but should take on a passing-down role in Cleveland.
There is better athleticism at linebacker, too, as second-year LB Jacob Phillips looks like a keeper and 2nd round rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah adds range to the position group.
The Browns have all the pieces in place. They made smart moves in building an all-around defense, and the defensive makeover should fare better results. The Browns need to do better in tackling, they need to stay healthy, and they, again, need to stay on the right side of the turnover battle. But they have the key pieces to get it done, and with guys like Chubb and Garrett capable of stepping up in the clutch, they have a realistic shot at winning their first division title since 1989.
Schedule
Week 1: @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM on CBS
Now this is a matchup that should be as explosive as in the Divisional Round game. The Chiefs upgraded their O-line, so their offense should be as dangerous as it was in 2021. However, this time around, it’s the Browns who are figuring out how to finish what they almost did in January, only to get screwed over by a missed personal foul on Daniel Sorensen when he lowered his helmet to hit Rashard Higgins to cause a fumble for a touchback. This should also be a nail-biter that could come down to one good/bad play or a missed call, because what would the NFL be without either or all of those things? The Browns start the season with a stunning upset of the Chiefs on a last-second game-winning field goal.
Week 1 score: Browns 41, Chiefs 38
Week 2: vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, September 19, 1:00 PM on CBS
The Texans are in absolute shambles and have the worst roster in the entire league. Deshaun Watson is likely not going to be playing another down for them. There is absolutely nothing that will indicate that the Texans will be competitive in 2021 as the Texans become the new Factory of Sadness.
Week 2 score: Browns 40, Texans 6
Week 3: vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 26, 1:00 PM on FOX
The Browns are in luck here, because the Bears believe that Andy Dalton is still a starting quarterback in 2021 when the reality is that he and Nick Foles can’t get it done. Justin Fields, in the meantime, will likely spend time being the backup quarterback, but should he step in at any time, he can make plays with his legs, but could stumble into a game-changing mistake. However, it’s unlikely that the Bears get Fields to be their starting QB by Week 3, and Garrett will feast on the very same Dalton who couldn’t get anything going for the Cowboys when under pressure. With this win, the Browns start the season on a three-game win streak that sends a message to the rest of the league.
Week 3 score: Browns 27, Bears 17
Week 4: @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 26, 1:00 PM on FOX
There is a familiarity factor in this game. Kevin Stefanski spent his entire career as the Vikings’ OC before becoming the Coach of the Year with the Browns. The Browns will feel great about themselves heading into this game, and rightfully so. However, the Vikings have talent of their own, although it’s mostly on offense. Kirk Cousins is coming off a great season stat-wise and Justin Jefferson is looking to solidify his spot as a top 10 wide receiver in the league, with Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook helping to keep the Browns defense exhausted. However, the Vikings are a step behind them, as the Browns have the edge talent-wise, because of vastly superior talent on defense and Mayfield being more of an off-schedule playmaking threat than Cousins.
Week 4 score: Browns 31, Vikings 27
Week 5: @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 10, 4:05 PM on CBS
The Chargers have a defensive wizard for a coach in Brandon Staley, so he should throw some tough schemes at Baker Mayfield. Justin Herbert is the real deal with the Bolts and has the edge at the quarterback position for them. So is Joey Bosa on the other side of the ball. Derwin James is returning from a season-ending injury, but it’s unclear if he can remain healthy and dominate as he has shown on the field. Mayfield and the air game has the potential to outduel Herbert, but after a close game with the Vikings, Stefanski prefers to go with a more-than-capable Chubb and Hunt in the hopes to keep Herbert on the sideline. However, the strategy backfires, as Herbert leads his team to a last-second game-winning touchdown.
Week 5 score: Chargers 30, Browns 24
Week 6: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 17, 4:05 PM on FOX
This is a matchup to watch since it features the two quarterbacks who won the Heisman Trophy when playing for Oklahoma. Both have solid offenses, both have loaded their defenses, with the Cardinals’ front seven headlined by Chandler Jones JJ Watt, Isaiah Simmons, and Zaven Collins. Not to mention they have Budda Baker anchoring the secondary. Kyler Murray is also a flashy quarterback, and one of the fastest in his position, up there with Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Leaning heavily on the rushing game will help, but if Murray starts racking up points on the scoreboard, the Browns will have to shoot it out with him, playing into the hands of Jones and Watt.
Week 6 score: Cardinals 27, Browns 20
Week 7: vs. Denver Broncos (TNF)
Thursday, October 21, 8:20 PM on FOX
It’s unknown whether the Broncos will make a quarterback change during the season given that Teddy Bridgewater will be their starting QB to open the season. If there is a QB change, Drew Lock better be the answer, considering they passed up on Justin Fields. Patrick Surtain II will be a problem for opposing defenses, but maybe not this early. Vic Fangio can coach all the defense he wants, but Myles Garrett and co. will have a field day with the Broncos’ uncertain QB situation.
Week 7 score: Browns 28, Broncos 17
Week 8: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 31, 1:00 PM on CBS
The Steelers are looking for revenge for what happened in the Wild Card Round last season, but that won’t happen in the first meeting. Although the Steelers’ defense holds up nicely, their O-line outside of Kevin Dotson and Trai Turner has question marks. There are many questions on if they will handle the Browns’ front seven, but don’t expect that to happen in Cleveland. The Browns also have the personnel to match up with the Steelers’ pass-catchers. The energy in Cleveland will simply be too much to overcome for an aging Ben Roethlisberger. That doesn’t mean the Steelers will just lie down and die, however, as he can still put up a fight and take over games when the situation calls for it. But here, it’s just not enough.
Week 8 score: Browns 27, Steelers 24
Week 9: @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 7, 1:00 PM on CBS
Like the Steelers, the Bengals’ O-line has question marks, but more so than the Steelers. They’re not that good enough to handle the Browns’ O-line. The Bengals’ young receiving core will have trouble against a revamped Browns secondary looking to cause havoc in the passing game. This also marks trouble for Cincy as their defense has constant troubles stopping the run, a problem they refused to address this offseason.
Week 9 score: Browns 33, Bengals 20
Week 10: @ New England Patriots
Sunday, November 14, 1:00 PM on CBS
We’re not getting the powerhouse Patriots we are used to seeing when they had Tom Brady. By this point, we don’t even know who will start under center, whether it be Mac Jones or Cam Newton. Even so, Jones isn’t someone who can put the world on notice and Newton isn’t the same guy who won NFL MVP in 2015. This is a recipe for disaster, unless Bill Belichick finds a way to make things competitive. However, as seen in 2020, at a certain point, the talent on the field has to keep pace with the best teams in the league, and this is simply not the case. The Browns have the superior talent on both sides of the ball, so expect them to overpower the Pats in their own field.
Week 10 score: Browns 31, Patriots 14
Week 11: vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, November 21, 1:00 PM on FOX
The Browns are racking up wins in impressive fashion at this point. They now head back home where they will duel with the rebuilding Lions. Jared Goff is in control of their offense, and he had arguably the most ideal circumstances to succeed in 2020 and failed. Who knows if he can turn his career around in 2021? Is Dan Campbell a legit head coach? Who knows, but the Browns have an identity, so expect them to cause havoc on the field and put the Lions in serious trouble.
Week 11 score: Browns 34, Lions 9
Week 12: @ Baltimore Ravens (SNF)
Sunday, November 28, 8:20 PM on NBC
That win streak was needed by the Browns, given that they will face the Ravens in back-to-back games, with a late-season bye in the middle of the sandwich. It was a shootout the last time the two teams met, and the Browns got better defensively. However, Lamar Jackson can still be a game-changing QB thanks to his amazing speed, and he has a much better receiving core to throw to, with Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman to aid to Hollywood Brown. Another factor in AFC North division games is homefield advantage, and that works to the Ravens’ advantage here.
Week 12 score: Ravens 27, Browns 24
Week 14: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 12, 1:00 PM on CBS
Something about homefield advantage and the fact that the Ravens beat the Browns in their own stadium at the end of the 2020 season in a thriller should give the Browns some boosted confidence here. Coming off a bye week, they will have 14 days to prepare for this game and look for them to respond with a win in a high-scoring game.
Week 14 score: Browns 34, Ravens 31
Week 15: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Either Saturday, December 18, or Sunday, December 19, time and network TBD
Raiders GM Mike Mayock said that the production the Raiders got from players last season was a “disappointment,” with many not named Darren Waller struggling to help Derek Carr rack up wins. Although Jon Gruden is a great offensive coach and Carr can light up the score sheet, the Raiders can’t stop anyone and continue to fumble on defensive player acquisitions. That is going to continue to cost them against the AFC West and against other top-tier teams like the Browns.
Week 15 score: Browns 37, Raiders 24
Week 16: @ Green Bay Packers (Christmas)
Saturday, December 25, 4:30 PM on FOX
Usually, in games like these in the Frozen Tundra, teams would not really match up well against the Packers. However, since both the Packers and Browns play in cold weather locations come wintertime, and that both teams have high-end personnel groups, the Browns match up well with the Packers. This makes this a huge game for the Browns, a team that has sent a lot of messages already this season but wants to do it again to prove that they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Beating the Packers at Lambeau Field would do the trick, but it won’t be easy, as Aaron Rodgers will do everything he can to keep his team in the game. But in the end, homefield advantage gets thrown out the window.
Week 16 score: Browns 34, Packers 31
Week 17: @ Pittsburgh Steelers (MNF)
Monday, January 3, 8:15 PM on ESPN
The Browns have already clinched a playoff spot by this point, but this is still a big game for both sides. The Steelers are seeking revenge for the Wild Card Round, while the Browns are looking to sweep the Steelers for the first time in forever. However, this time around, the Steelers get their revenge. New Steelers OC Matt Canada will throw interesting schemes at the Browns defense, the defense gets more aggressive, and Ben delivers a clutch touchdown to lead the Steelers to a much-needed victory.
Week 17 score: Steelers 24, Browns 20
Week 18: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, January 9, 1:00 PM on CBS
Despite their 12-4 record, the Browns opt to not rest their starters in the hopes of clinching the AFC North for the first time since 1989 as they do battle against the Bengals. If you look at the position groups between the two rosters, it’s clear that the Browns have the advantage in every area. That’s not a recipe for success for the team on the wrong side of the head-to-head comparison. The Browns go on to win but they have to wait for the end of Steelers/Ravens to see who emerges as the AFC North winner. Unfortunately for them, the Steelers lose, and the Ravens take the AFC North via tiebreaker by way of having a better strength of schedule ranking.
Week 18 score: Browns 41, Bengals 20
Final Record Projection: 13-4
Projected Starters
Offense
QB: Baker Mayfield
RB: Nick Chubb
WR: Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones/Rashard Higgins
TE: Austin Hooper
OL: Jedrick Wills Jr. (LT), Joel Bitonio (LG), JC Tretter (C), Wyatt Teller (RG), Jack Conklin (RT)
Defense
DE: Myles Garrett (LE), Jadeveon Clowney (RE)
DT: Malik Jackson (LDT), Andrew Billings (RDT)
LB: Mack Wilson (WLB), Anthony Walker Jr./Jacob Phillips (MLB), Sione Takitaki (SLB)
CB: Denzel Ward (LCB), Troy Hill (RCB)
S: Ronnie Harrison Jr. (SS), John Johnson III (FS)
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