Early in the season, it seemed that nothing could go wrong for the Dallas Cowboys. Everything was firing on all cylinders.
Think back to the pre-bye week Cowboys. The offense was unstoppable. The defense played well enough to maintain a lead. Dan Quinn has been a huge upgrade over Mike Nolan at defensive coordinator.
Flash forward to the wild card round, and they have now experienced a familiar sense of disappointment.
The roster, loaded with talent across the board, disappointed in a playoff game. Once again, the Cowboys’ season came to a premature end in a case of their own undoing.
Mike McCarthy was completely outcoached and his team looked unprepared. There were concerns that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore would not be retained. There were boneheaded mistakes left and right.
One of those mistakes was struggling to run the ball consistently, yet they continue to feed Ezekiel Elliott, who was revealed to be playing through a partially torn PCL. If this was the case, why did they cover up his injury and opt to continue feeding him over Tony Pollard?
This makes no sense on why Elliott got 12 carries and Pollard had just four. Pollard is a lot more explosive with the ball and Moore had to do a better job of getting the ball to Pollard in space.
The best guess was that Pollard was still feeling the effects of his foot injury that kept him out of Week 18, but he was a full participant in practice and should have been more involved in the offense. He finished the game with 6 touches for 26 yards, while Elliott had 13 touches for 31 yards.
Yes, Elliott is a good pass-blocker, but teams don’t pay running backs $15 million per year for 6 years to pass block. He should have been behind Pollard in the category of getting touches.
The sheer lack of discipline haunted the Cowboys as well. You cannot commit 14 penalties in a game and expect to win.
The penalties that hurt the most are the pre-snap penalties. The Cowboys committed seven of them, including three neutral zone infractions, two false starts, a delay of game, and an illegal shift.
Those 14 penalties are tied for the most for a Cowboys team in a playoff game. But that’s not surprising considering the Cowboys are the most penalized team in the league.
If that’s not bad enough, four teams were assessed 14 penalties in a game. The Cowboys did that twice: Week 12 against the Las Vegas Raiders and this game.
This sloppy play is why they led the league in penalties. But there is no excuse for pre-snap penalties other than being undisciplined. The defensive line kept jumping the snap, jumping offsides as a result.
The dumbest penalty, however, was after the Cowboys’ successful fake punt. Mike McCarthy decided to leave the special teams unit on the field to try and get the 49ers to waste a timeout. Dak Prescott didn’t even have his helmet on with 14 seconds left on the play clock.
That was disastrous.
The Cowboys actually considered running a play with their long snapper, Jake McQuaide, at center, and linebackers as offensive tackles. The most pre-snap motion seen all game was from punter Bryan Anger.
This shows coaching ignorance, leading to a Cowboys delay of game penalty. The fact that they were still given chances given how many penalties they took is unbelievable.
And that’s not to mention whatever was the play call with 14 seconds left in the game. The Cowboys had no timeouts and decided to run a draw play. They were lucky even to have a chance to win. They went on to kill off all hopes with this play call.
They could have taken two shots from the Niners’ 41 to the end zone with 14 seconds left. But to get no shots at the end zone is just horrendous. There was no execution all game, so the thought of the draw play being the “best option,” as McCarthy, is a total joke.
This was certainly not the best option. The best option would be to throw the ball to the end zone. At that point, for better or worse, the ball has to be thrown to the end zone for them to have a chance.
People are even quick to point fingers on the offense, and Prescott had his fair share of criticism. Rightfully so. He has regressed after the Cowboys beat the Patriots in Week 6.
Before their bye, the Cowboys sat at 5-1, averaging 8.4 passing yards per attempt, 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, 11.0 QB pressures allowed per game, a 2.5% receiver drop percentage, 51.5% of their drives ending in a score, and a .150 EPA per play, ranking 7th, 4th, 10th, 4th, 2nd, and 5th in those categories, respectively. After the bye, those numbers dropped to 6.6, 3.5, 15.0, 8.3%, 39.7%, and .026, ranking 18th, 21st, 23rd, 18th, 14th, and 12th, respectively.
Prescott’s completion percentage declined by 8% after the bye, his yards per attempt by 1.6 yards, and had three times as many turnover-worthy plays. That regression led to a 20-point decline in his passer rating.
Those stats justify the argument that he has underperformed in the back half of the season. His PFF grade, however, was 9th in the NFL in the final 12 games of the 2021 season. Additionally, with a near-6% increase in the Cowboys’ receivers drop rate, the blame should end with him, as he was not the only problem.
The inefficiency with Elliott is another. This is more merit considering his yards per attempt in the final 12 games was 1.6 yards less than in the first six games. In fact, he rushed for more yards before the bye than after the bye: 521 compared to 512.
Pollard declined too, with a one-yard drop in yards per attempt despite gaining more yards after contact per attempt. He also had more ten-yard runs in the first six weeks than the last 12 despite more rushing attempts.
The backfield underperformed, but with a seismic efficiency decline by both Elliott and Pollard, it felt as if the ground game was facing an uphill battle. It’s odd for both to drop off at the exact same point in the season.
The O-line is no longer the cornerstone of the Cowboys. With guys like Zack Martin, Tyron Smith, and, to a lesser extent, La’el Collins and Connor Williams, there was the unfair belief that the O-line was set up for success.
For the first few weeks, they were playing well; teams were blitzing 37% of the time, yet they surrendered just 11 QB pressures and 1.5 sacks per game. This led to a 90.9% pass blocking efficiency in the first six weeks, the best in the NFL in that span.
Heading into the bye, the Cowboys’ front five had four linemen graded in the top 30% of the league by PFF’s pass blocking grading. The run blocking was even more impressive, with five Cowboys linemen being in the top 25% of PFF grading. That was one huge reason Elliott and Pollard played at an elite level before the bye.
But things started to get worse after the bye. Whether it be the constant reshuffling of the rotation or Smith’s injury, the O-line was horrid in the final 12 games. The 25 pressures allowed against the 49ers meant the offense was doomed from the start.
Teams were refusing to send pressure against the Cowboys in the second half of the season, with a 24% blitz rate in the final 12 games. This should mean Prescott faced a clean pocket, right? Not only is this wrong, but it’s just blatantly wrong. The O-line allowed 15 pressures and 2.4 sacks per game. Teams were even allowed to drop more defenders into coverage, yet got to the QB more frequently.
The obvious argument is that Prescott held on to the ball longer in the pocket. But his average time to throw increased from 2.60 to 2.75. Putting this into perspective, he got the ball out at the 10th-fastest rate in the league before the bye, and got it out in the 12th-fastest rate in the final 12 games.
After the bye, the Cowboys had just two linemen ranking inside the top 30% of pass blocking efficiency: Martin and Tyler Biadasz. Similarly, they had just two linemen in the top 25% for run blocking PFF grading: Martin and Collins.
Want more proof? Their running backs saw contact 2.2 yards past the line of scrimmage before the bye, but that number decreased to 1.3 after the bye.
This was yet another wasted opportunity for the Cowboys, just like in 2007. And 2014. And 2016. For all the times the players and coaches change, the results don’t.
The biggest reason they haven’t reached the NFC Championship Game since 1995 is because they failed to take advantage of the season when they had excellent teams.
But this is a team that showed warning signs all season long. They had 12 wins, but only three of those wins came against playoff teams: The Patriots and the Eagles (twice). Against the best teams, they couldn’t pull off the Ws.
In some of those games, they were close—losing by two to the Buccaneers and by three to the Cardinals—but not good enough to win.
But this season’s Cowboys have been what they have been all season. The problems showed up at the worst possible times.
Penalties have showed up in every loss for them. They had a franchise-record in penalty yards in Week 12 against the Raiders. In Week 17 against the Cardinals, the players hated the calls so much that many said they were playing against the refs.
So why are they surprised they had a lot of calls against them against the 49ers in Super Wild Card Weekend? Guys like Williams and Randy Gregory continued to have penalty issues.
Slow starts have been a recurring theme for them this season. They were flat on both sides of the ball.
How is this even possible? They were at home. Their fans were going crazy. Despite everything being said about the Niners having a lot of fans, that was not an issue.
What was the issue is coming out and getting run over to start the game and the offense not even doing a thing until the 2nd quarter. This was a recurring theme all season long, and only against average teams could they get away with it.
Prescott can’t be blameless—he wasn’t playing well. He got a lot of pressure on his face, but there were plays that he could have made, and he didn’t make them. The ground game has been lacking ever since the bye as well.
But for the most part, there have been some moments throughout the season where the coaches have been having clock management issues.
That gets overblown because it is rarely talked about when the clock was managed correctly. This was one of those games where poor game clock management struck again.
The end of the game came down to both that and execution.
In the final play, Pollard was behind Prescott to the left. If the draw play were to be executed, Prescott should have lateraled the ball to Pollard and have Pollard run out of bounds to stop the clock to get one final play going.
Because that didn’t happen, the Cowboys had to get to the spot of the ball to spike the ball. Cowboys fans are going to complain about the ref getting in Prescott’s way, but the rule says that the ref has to spot the ball. A player cannot spot the ball. If the Cowboys snap the ball before the ref snaps the ball, that would be a penalty and a 10-second runoff, therefore giving the Niners the win.
It should not come down to that.
Furthermore, with coaching, the sun is a problem at AT&T Stadium. Don’t throw towards the middle of the field. What happens? A pass on 3rd down to Wilson ends up with him not seeing the ball. That would have led to three points, and imagine how a field goal would change things up on the final drive.
The Cowboys are not going to have a roster that is this talented for another few years.
Good drafting and draft pick development is why someone like Cedrick Wilson can be their 4th receiver and Dalton Schultz can start the season as a backup and end up being a key contributor.
Randy Gregory is set to be a free agent, and so is Jayron Kearse, who developed into a key member of the secondary and one of the defense’s best players.
DeMarcus Lawrence and Amari Cooper have high salary cap numbers for a franchise that will be in the midst of a cap crisis. There is no guarantee either of them will come back.
Then there’s the age. Tyron Smith and Zack Martin both hit 30 and it will start to take a toll on them. Smith is already getting affected by this, as he has missed 32 games in the past six seasons.
The Cowboys led the league in yards and finished 2nd in points while leading the NFL in turnovers forced. They entered the playoffs as a relatively fully healthy team. Michael Gallup, their no. 3 receiver, and linebacker Keanu Neal were the only players to miss the game against the 49ers because of injuries.
There are no excuses for the Cowboys’ loss to the Niners. If honesty comes into question, had it not been for the questionable decision-making gaffes by Shanahan, the Niners could have beat the Cowboys by at least three touchdowns.
From the inability to convert on 3rd downs, to the lack of a ground game, to a continual failure of capitalizing on the Niners’ mistakes, this was a total failure all around. Not even the special teams’ trick plays and the defensive stops could save them.
But this is not surprising. This loss marks 11 straight playoff appearance without them reaching the NFC Championship Game for the Cowboys—the longest streak by any team in NFL history.
They had one of the most stacked rosters in franchise history and they still fell flat on their faces. And to make matters worse, Gregory and Kearse are just two of the 23 Cowboys players set to hit free agency. And considering they are $13 million over the cap, there is no way everyone will stay put. Some players are going to be put on the chopping block.
Leighton Vander Esch
Leighton Vander Esch could be a great linebacker, but he hasn’t been that since his rookie season in 2018, where he had 140 tackles, two interceptions, and seven passes defensed.
Since then, he hardly made a sound. He had some crucial tackles against the Niners in the wild card round, but also had some clear missed tackles that allowed easy yardage.
His rookie season gave them promise, but he hasn’t matched that first year. A lot of it is because of injuries—he missed seven games in 2019 and six in 2020 because of injuries.
For someone to be this young with injury problems, it’s hard for the Cowboys to take a gamble on him for the future. They have already declined the 5th-year option on his rookie deal, showing they may not have plans on him for the future.
Given how injury-prone he is, it’s not surprising. Teams may have a concern that he may not get back to the player he once was in 2018.
PFF projects that he will get a three-year, $25.5 million deal. Given that Micah Parsons outshined Vander Esch, there are doubts that the 4th-year Cowboy will get that much money. He may bring energy to the team, but he’s likely going to end up wearing a different uniform next season.
Keanu Neal
Keanu Neal followed Dan Quinn to the Cowboys from the Atlanta Falcons. But it’s likely neither are going to return to Jerryworld next season.
He just wasn’t the star the Cowboys needed him to be.
He finished 60th out of all linebackers in the NFL in total tackles and had a disturbingly low 36.0 PFF grade. He had issues against the run, one of the weak links to the Cowboys defense as a whole this season. He had several missed tackles throughout the season that could have gotten the defense off the field.
It doesn’t help that he seemingly, according to McCarthy, is “obviously struggling” with chest and elbow issues. That was to the point where Neal was inactive for Super Wild Card Weekend.
The reality is that his stats and performance was not good enough. His 2020 stats with the Falcons were higher in every single category than his stats this season. Jerry Jones and co. are going to have to look for someone younger and cheaper.
Damontae Kazee
Like Neal, Kazee is another former Falcon who is likely going elsewhere. Not only was he not good enough this season, but he also had off-the-field issues too.
Kazee started 15 games and was outperformed every game by Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker. He doesn’t have the ballhawk skills that other defenders on the team have. He has given up big gains on balls that should have been batted down or intercepted.
He also got into trouble when trying to make tackles, such as when he was fined $6,246 for an unnecessary roughness penalty on his touchdown-saving tackle on Giants running back Devontae Booker, when he was penalized for a horse collar tackle.
In addition, he also had issues with the law, when he was arrested for a DWI during the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye. That was after Mike McCarthy told his players to be wise with what they do with their time off. It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys retaining Kazee over Kearse and Hooker.
Connor Williams
When it looked like Connor Williams was past his penalty days, he basically gave the green light for Jerry Jones to cut him.
When they have guys like Smith and Martin, they can afford to give up a guy like Williams, who hasn’t been consistent.
He got benched this season for three games because of penalties, ending the season with 12 total enforced penalties, the 2nd-highest in the league. Ten of those penalties were holding penalties, a category he also leads the league in.
PFF says that Williams will be heavily sought-after in free agency. It’s estimated that he will get a contract of around $35 million for the next four years. The Cowboys do not need to get that money on someone who is penalty-prone. Williams is likely going to sign with another team, where he can be a solid blocker.
The Cowboys are likely going to draft an O-lineman with high potential that they won’t have to pay as much. They did it a lot of times before.
Dalton Schultz
This has nothing to do with how incredible Dalton Schultz performed this season. Remember: He wasn’t a starter in the 2020 season. When Blake Jarwin got hurt, Schultz stepped up and became a consistent and reliable target for Prescott.
The problem is that the Cowboys already have several players that are eating up big contracts, which is why they are far over the cap. They also have Jarwin under contract for more than $6 million next season.
If they were to keep Schultz, they would have to cut Jarwin and others to be able to keep him for a hefty price tag.
Schultz’s projected contract is at least $35 million for four years, per PFF. Saving this money will allow the Cowboys to re-sign other key free agents. Schultz is hopefully going to continue to have an excellent career as a starting TE, but it’s likely going to be elsewhere.
The one thing the Cowboys will not miss from him is how subpar he was blocking-wise, and they can replace him with a cheap flyer and a better blocker.
It’s going to be tough seeing him go, but it is the only way they can keep guys like Michael Gallup, Kearse, Randy Gregory, Cedrick Wilson, and Bryan Anger.
The bottom line is that they will have to spend the offseason figuring out their lack of playoff success in recent history. They have not won back-to-back playoff games since 1995 and had 11 straight playoff appearances without an NFC Championship Game appearance.
They have been prolific against bad teams this season, but uneven against good teams. Many considered the Cowboys to be a fringe contender—not good, but also, not great. They do have the talent to change that, though.
Personnel moves is not going to fix it. There’s something else holding them back: Finding an edge. Physicality is one issue, because the 49ers appeared to have the edge early in the wild card game. The O-line is aging, and it’s possibly time to start planning for life after Tyron Smith.
They are going to have to find a way to keep Gregory and Schultz, but they will have to create cap space. They can do that by restructuring the contracts of Lawrence and Elliott.
That’s easier said than done, however, and it’s not going to be easy for them. They’re going to ponder deeply what do they do going forward.
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