The Titans defeated the Colts 34-31 in overtime, but at what cost?
Derrick Henry injured his right foot during the game, and the injury is reported to be season-ending. Henry had surgery on the foot Tuesday morning, but Titans head coach Mike Vrabel said the Titans did not put a timetable for his return.
The report is that Henry suffered a Jones fracture, a break between the base and the middle of the fifth metatarsal of the foot. Recovery of a Jones fracture can take from between 6 to 10 weeks.
Henry appeared to suffer the injury during the 1st quarter of the game. Between the Titans’ 2nd and 3rd drives of the game, during the CBS broadcast, Henry was shown to receive treatment on the sidelines. He had his right cleat off and was limping on the sideline.
He returned for the Titans’ third series, finishing with 28 rushes for 68 yards and no touchdowns, his lowest yards per carry mark of the season (2.4), playing 50 of 68 snaps.
The Colts slowed him down throughout the game, not allowing the beastly running back to get ahead of steam. Given his situation, it can make sense in a way.
His 68 rushing yards are the 2nd-fewest of the season, ahead of his 58 against the Cardinals in Week 1, the 2nd-fewest rushing yards in his career for a game with 25+ rushes, and the first time he recorded less than 100 rushing yards in back-to-back weeks since Weeks 5 through 9 in 2019.
With the win, the Titans improved to 8-10 in games where Henry rushed for less than 100 yards. That record shows Henry’s importance to the Titans. He drives the offense, alleviating the pressure on the receivers by pulling defenders to the box. He hammers defensive linemen all game, and can make 50+ yard runs easy. And he bleeds the clock away late in games where the Titans lead.
He was setting the pace for running backs through 8 games in the season, with 219 rushes for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those who are right behind him in each category are Joe Mixon (137 rushes), Jonathan Taylor (649 yards), and James Conner (8 touchdowns).
Henry also led the league in total yards from scrimmage (1,091). His dominance got him in the early conversation for MVP, an award that is basically becoming a quarterback award nowadays. He is the main reason the Titans have the AFC’s best record.
He is also the main reason the Titans are 4th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging 147.6 yards, helping them rank 2nd in the league in possession time per game (32:49).
In the wake of him getting injured, the Titans signed Adrian Peterson, 36, who is 5th in the league in the career rushing yards list, while moving Henry to the injured reserve.
Peterson last played for the Detroit Lions last season, where he played all 16 regular season games and started in 10. He had 604 yards and 7 touchdowns on 3.9 yards per carry and caught 12 passes for 101 yards. He didn’t re-sign with the Lions after last season and remained a free agent through the first 8 weeks of the season.
He projects to join a committee approach in the absence of Henry. His primary backup, Jeremy McNichols, had just 7 rushes for 38 yards in that same timespan. Running backs don’t relatively play at his age, much less make a lot of contributions on the field. But he showed last season that he can still effectively carry a regular workload.
McNichols has been impressive on the screen game, so he should get the first crack at replacing Henry. The Titans also have former Browns running back Dontrell Hilliard on the roster.
McNichols can carve himself in a solid role as a pass catcher. He has most value in PPR fantasy leagues, and if Julio Jones, who missed three games with a hamstring injury, continues to miss time, there is the strong chance that McNichols could have games where he is the de facto no. 2 receiver.
He’s not as strong of an addition as Peterson, although he might have the largest role against the Rams as Peterson works his way back into the offense. But McNichols is worth a look because any running back who can pick up the bulk of the work in the rushing game is worth the addition.
Without Henry, the Titans are still destined to make the playoffs—they have a three-game lead in the AFC South and holds the tiebreaker over the Colts with their two-game sweep. Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown are tough enough to keep the Titans from collapsing. But a deep playoff run has taken a huge hit without Henry.
With the addition of Peterson, the Titans are not replacing a running back. Henry is a player that is impossible to replace. They are replacing identity. Instead of being a run-heavy offense, they’re going to lean heavily on Tannehill, Brown, and Julio Jones.
Henry’s injury is not an injury the Titans can overcome. While the offense has capable players, Henry is the guy that drives the offense. He is the identity of the Titans. While Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports that Henry could be back by the end of the season, but you can’t expect the engine to immediately run upon return.
Henry set the record for most carries in a team’s first 8 games of a season. That itself is impressive, but consider it with the rest of his recent production: Since the 2019 season, he has logged 1,001 carries, 304 more than 2nd place Dalvin Cook. His carries over the last two years can outpace any other feature back can do in four years. And he has put up historic numbers in doing so.
He ran for 2,000 yards last season, becoming just the 8th player to do so, and was looking at another 2,000-yard season again before his injury—no running back has reached 2,000 yards in a season more than once. In the last three seasons, Henry had four games with more than 200 rushing yards, the same amount as the rest of the league combined.
But to capture him purely with stats is missing the point. He is the NFL’s biggest, tallest, and arguably the fastest running back. His stiff arm is a vicious sight to see, as he sends opposing defenders to the Shadow Realm.
He also seems to get better throughout time. His yards per carry is higher in the 4th quarter (5.2) than in the 1st (3.3), and higher in January (6.4) than in December (5.5), and higher in December than it is in September (4.0).
In his six years in the NFL, his carries, yards, and rushing touchdowns have gone up, but never down. The Titans are the only team operating a four-minute offense around running the ball, and for them, it is the smart thing to do.
And while he clearly wasn’t himself during the 34-31 win over the Colts, his presence drew attention from the Colts and helped AJ Brown record 10 receptions for 155 yards, leading the Titans to a comeback victory. It’s normal for Henry—he’s so durable that a serious injury hasn’t felt possible, because it would finally prove that he is human after all. He even fumbled for the first time this season on his 199th carry.
The Titans utilized him at a much higher rate than any other running back in the league. A lot higher. But it’s Derrick Henry.
And while it’s unfortunate that it took a potentially season-ending injury to someone who gets a handful of 375+ carry seasons, he is still his own class, but what happens next for the Titans will show the rest of the league for years to come.
With the massive running back devaluation, there are teams in the league being bold overpaying for the position. Christian McCaffrey signed a long-term extension through 2026 even after Todd Gurley flamed out with the Rams. Andy Reid, who has long had a reputation of being a nonbeliever in premium running backs, took Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd pick of the 2020 Draft, despite not willing to use draft capital at the position. The Steelers, a team with a lot of needs that has often outpaced other teams in draft return, took Najee Harris with the 24th pick of the 2021 Draft, and he was just one of two running backs to be selected in the first round of that draft. The Ravens have an injury-depleted running back room, as JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill are all on IR, and that may be their biggest barrier to a Super Bowl run.
Chargers head coach Brandon Staley explained the true value of the running game in a way we can all understand:
What I think the running game does for a quarterback is it gives you some breathers. You don’t need a good running game to be a good play-action team, but what you need the running game for is the physical element of the game. There’s a physicality to the game that’s real, right? If you’re just a passing team, there’s a physical element to the game that the defense doesn’t have to respect. And that’s the truth. Because the data will tell you that you don’t need a run game to play pass. You don’t need that.
But what the running game does for you, it brings a physical dimension to the football game. And what the running game does that the passing game does not, is the running forces the defense to play block and to tackle. That happens on a run play—You must play blocks and you must tackle. In the passing game, those things don’t need to happen, right? You don’t have to play as many blocks. And you may not have to tackle based on incomplete or not. So what the running game does is it really challenges your physicality and that’s why I think the run game is important to a quarterback. It’s literally going to allow him to have more space to operate when you do throw the football.
Imagine if Peterson starts averaging around 4.5 yards per carry. The hope is that the Titans can schematically force a similar loaded box percentage (8 or more defenders in the box) as Henry, who, outside of Christian McCaffrey, Mark Ingram, and Elijah Mitchell, saw more brick walls than any other running back in the NFL, and, because of that, create advantageous matchups in the passing game.
Because of Henry’s unique skillset, that doesn’t look likely. His ability to be in a precise, one-cut rushing offense is one of the best scheme fits in modern NFL history. But looking for a one-cut back comfortable of working in the outside zone is easier said than done. That’s why Kyle Shanahan converted certain backs in his first few free agencies, and why the Packers used a 2nd round pick on AJ Dillon. Not every running back is as powerful as Henry.
When you separate Henry’s yards after contact and gave the yardage to an isolated back, they would be 2nd in the NFL in rushing since 2019... behind Henry himself.
All of this shapes into a large part on why Henry is the identity of the Titans. While it can be argued that they are more than just Henry, if they thrive without their superstar running back since Peterson, in his heyday, then the perception of the position is going to change.
We still don’t know what the Titans will be without Henry. Mike Vrabel will continue to look at the preexisting plan, while adding in adjustments to make up for the lack of production. But the rushing game is not going to be the same.
We still don’t know what the Titans will be without Henry. Mike Vrabel will continue to look at the preexisting plan, while adding in adjustments to make up for the lack of production. But the rushing game is not going to be the same.
He was on pace for 465 carries, plus the work that you would expect from him in the playoffs. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing reintegrated Henry into the passing game, as his 18 catches were within one of his career-high for a full season. In a league where teams throw the ball more often than in seasons past and backs are the exception, Henry is the biggest outlier.
No running back will turn down the football, but if Henry is getting the largest workload in NFL history, could his potentially season-ending injury have been prevented if some of his carries were given to another back or if they threw the ball more frequently? There’s no clear answer.
The only way to answer that question is if we go to an alternate reality where Henry was given a lesser workload, but running backs who have endured this workload with have almost always struggled to stay as healthy and productive (for example: Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, and Saquon Barkley). The Titans amped up Henry’s workload to an unprecedented level.
Things could be different if 3rd round pick Darrynton Evans remained healthy, but he carried the ball just twice on either side, with trips to the IR with a knee injury. The Titans have also played three games in overtime, which only added to an exhausting workload for Henry. You can also make a case that he could have gotten hurt without this much of a workload.
So, it’s likely that Henry’s chances of getting injured increased alongside with his workload. In no way will a 465-carry workload would be sustainable for anyone over any meaningful timeframe, not even for Henry. He might have been able to shoulder more than any other running back, but this was surely too much. He felt like an exception to the running back workload rules.
He was touching the ball almost 30 times per game. Those touches are going to go somewhere else. Naturally, the carries would be funneled over to a new running back. McNichols was the change-of-pace back for the Titans with Henry out, but the first move to replace Henry was to sign Peterson.
Prime Peterson would be the ideal replacement for Henry, but he is 36 years old and has more than 3,300 NFL carries of wear and tear on his body. He hasn’t been on great teams as of late, but given the middling offenses around him, he hasn’t been able to get more than what has been blocked.
Peterson has been almost at the league average in terms of rushing yards over expectation, which uses the location, speed, and acceleration of every player on the field at the time of a handoff to estimate how much yards a running back will gain.
On 607 rushes, he has rushed for 46 fewer yards than the league rushing model expected from any running back in those situations. Henry, as you expect, has blown away this model: On 1,089 rushing attempts over that same time frame, he ran for 982 more yards than any other running back would produce, an average of 0.9 yards above expectation per rush.
Most of that production came before the 2021 season. While Henry has gotten an enormous workload, he hasn’t been as hugely valuable as a runner in this metric. His 217 rushes produced 928 yards when a typical runner in the same situation would have run for 917 yards. That’s an 11-yard gap over 217 carries, which amounts to one extra yard ever 19 rushes or so.
Henry also dropped from averaging 5.1 yards per carry in 2019 and 5.4 yards per carry last season to 4.3 this season, including 2.7 in the last two weeks. It would be surprising if he felt the injury bug for a couple of games by this point.
Since the beginning of the 2018 season, he produced 11 plays of at least 50 yards, ranking 2nd in the league right behind Saquon Barkley (14), and Barkley has struggled to stay healthy. Nobody on the Titans has more than eight. The extra rushes help, but Henry is one of those rare running backs who can physically overwhelm linebackers and bulldoze defensive backs.
Peterson can keep the Titans on or near schedule when healthy, but he doesn’t have the big play ability that he once had when he was in the prime. He had three plays of at least 50 yards in 2018, but none in his 406 carries in 2019 and 2020. He had a 90-yard run with Washington against the Eagles in 2018, but while three years might not be that long ago, consider that the guys on Washington in that play included Mark Sanchez, Vernon Davis, Josh Doctson, and Maurice Harris.
The other problem is that he won’t offer more than what he does as a runner with the ball in his hands. He is not a plus blocker. And as a receiver, he averaged just 1.3 yards per route in the last three years, below league average. The Titans were not going to line up Henry at the slot like the Steelers did at times when they had Le’Veon Bell, but Peterson is restricted to slip screens and dump-offs.
Peterson also dropped five passes on 67 targets and fumbled six times. The average running back has fumbled once every 124 touches in the past three years, while Peterson fumbled once every 112 touches in the past three season and once every approximately 73 touches.
When he was one of the more productive running backs in the league, the fumbles were part of the downside of doing business. Now that he is closer to the league average, there is less good outweighing the bad.
It is arguable that Peterson is a less-than-inspiring replacement for Henry. Getting a running back who can create more big plays, does more as a receiver, and does better at avoiding fumbles would be better for the Titans, even if it came at the cost of a late-round pick, such as someone like a Marlon Mack, Todd Gurley, or Kerryon Johnson, though it’s not clear who will end up as healthy as Peterson.
The Titans are one of the most run-happy teams in the NFL. On early downs, when both teams have at least a 20% chance of winning the game, they ran the ball 55.8% of the time this season, the 3rd-highest rate in the league.
This is nothing new for them—they ran the ball more frequently last season, when they ran the ball 58.3% of the time in neutral situations.
When it comes to passing, the Titans thrive off of play-action passes. Since becoming the team’s starting QB in Week 7 of the 2019 season, he has the league’s highest QBR (83.9) on play action passes while averaging 10.9 yards per attempt. When not using a play fake, he ranks 16th in QBR and averages 7.1 yards per attempt.
In that same timeframe, they have used a play fake on 31% of their pass attempts, the 2nd-highest rate in the league. The concern was that Downing would take away from their play action game after their Week 1 debacle. But since then, Tannehill has thrown on play action 30.1% of the time. Their formula has been reliable and effective.
On a leaguewide level, teams don’t really need to “establish the run” or be one of the better running teams to thrive off play action. The best QBRs on play action are the Bills, Washington, and the Buccaneers, who aren’t exactly the best teams on the ground. The only team with a better QBR on play action is the Buccaneers, who have had drastically different QBs and a range of different running backs.
But it makes sense: Henry has been a beastly runner, so there is no reason why he would have to run 10 times to start a game before the opponents chase down the run.
Now that both Henry and the threat of Henry are gone, even though they may still run the ball, does their competitive advantage on play action vanish when he’s not part of that play action? If yes, how do they fix it? Does this tell us anything about their decision to bank in on Tannehill? If it doesn’t go away, does it tell us anything about Henry?
There can also be the fact that Henry impacts who the Titans face defensively. Defenses facing Henry and the Titans were leaned towards base defense against the core personnel groupings than the rest of the NFL. When offenses in the NFL in 2021 use their 11 personnel (1 RB-1 TE-3 WR) personnel grouping, opposing defenses stick with their base personnel of four defensive backs 3.7% of the time. The Titans have faced base defenses on 5.8% of their 11 personnel snaps this season.
When the league gets into 12 personnel (1 RB-2 TE-2 WR), opposing teams usually respond with base defense 51.6% of the time. When they face the Titans, defenses would use a 12 personnel set 73.8% of the time. Adding more defensive backs to the field should make it harder for the Titans to pass, regardless of if it’s play action or not.
When the Titans don’t use play action, Tannehill’s numbers are worse. Those numbers get much worse when Henry is not on the field. When each team has a win expectancy of at least 20% and Tannehill attempts a pass without play action, he posts a 60.1 QBR on 170 dropbacks with Henry on the field. His QBR falls to 52.4 on 267 dropbacks without Henry.
Henry is one of the best short-yardage backs in the league, both for his own size and his ability to draw defenders. One of the Titans’ best plays in short yardage situations was using Tannehill on the zone read, but it won’t probably be as effective without Henry.
The Titans have been the league’s best red zone offense since Tannehill took over, scoring touchdowns on 74.6% of their red zone trips. The QB deserves credit, given that they were below league average in the red zone between Henry’s breakout game against the Jaguars in 2018 and Marcus Mariota’s final game with the team in 2019, but it is hard to imagine if they will be as good without Henry.
With that being said, defenses might not need to stack eight men in the box anymore. And if they shift those guys towards Brown, that will draw concerns.
He has the most receiving yards in the league against eight-man boxes in the last two seasons, which makes sense, given the Titans were seeing them all the time. They’re going to have to lean on him regardless of what the defense will throw at his way. While his target and receiving production will go up, his efficiency will go down.
The Titans have a history of having a strategy of “grinding opponents into the dust,” and in the past, they have been able to drag teams down into the muck and beat them with experience. The Titans’ best chance for a playoff run is to see if Henry can return within the 6-to-10-week timetable.
Leaning on Brown will highlight the lack of depth the Titans have at receiver. Julio Jones is still a good wide receiver, but when he is out of the lineup, the players behind him are Josh Reynolds, Chester Rogers, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
The Titans are top-heavy on Henry, Brown, and Jones, but with Henry out of the picture, now they are going to be a lot more top heavy on Brown given that Jones is out for a few weeks, the lead running back is a 36-year-old Peterson, and a bare-bones crew of pass-catchers.
Passing is better than running, and the Titans are definitely going to pass more often than they have in years past. However, Jones has struggled to stay healthy, but if the Titans get him and Brown on the field at the same time, they will give Tannehill a high-end one-two punch for the passing game. Maybe the O-line gets better and is good enough to get the ground game going for Peterson.
The Titans currently hold the top seed in the AFC, although it’s hard to see them staying at that spot given the news. If any team is going to struggle without their lead rusher, it’s the Titans.
Yes, they have a three-game lead over the AFC South, which keeps their playoff hopes safe. To win the division, they’re going to have to win three of their final nine games and not see the Colts go 7-2 the rest of the season. But the playoffs are where they need Henry the most.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Titans a 97.8% chance of winning the AFC South and a 98.9% chance of making the playoffs. They already beat the Bills and Chiefs, which gives them important tiebreakers, and they have a pair of wins over the Colts, who have the only realistic hopes of competing with the Titans for the division title.
They have also won games without getting big contributions from Henry. They won the last two weeks by scoring a combined 54 points on offense where Henry had a combined 154 rushing yards on 57 carries. He made life easier for the rest of the offense, but they can win games without getting 150 yards from scrimmage from him.
It’s true that their playoff runs in the last two years ended with their opponent taking Henry out of the situation. The Chiefs held him to 69 yards on 19 carries in the 2019 AFC Championship game, and the Ravens held him to 40 yards on 18 carries in the wild card round last year. When the offense fell on Tannehill’s shoulders, he wasn’t able to keep up with the rest of the AFC.
The good news, though, is that they won’t play a lot of great teams in the next 6 to 10 weeks. Granted, they will face the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 9, but from that point forward, they may have the league’s easiest schedule. They face a Jameis Winston-less Saints, the Texans, and the Patriots before their Week 13 bye, before getting the Jaguars, Steelers, 49ers, Dolphins, and Texans again to cap off the season.
Four of their final 8 games are against the NFL’s worst teams. The Saints and Steelers are the only two with a winning record, with the Saints starting a 3rd-string QB in Trevor Siemian before backup QB Taysom Hill clears concussion protocol, and the Steelers starting a washed-up Ben Roethlisberger at QB. What both teams have in common, though, is that they lean heavily on their stingy defenses and run games.
The Titans should be able to win most of these games, even without Henry. FPI gives them a 26.3% chance of winning the top seed in the AFC, so anything is possible. Remember: The Eagles lost Carson Wentz when he was leading the MVP race in the 2017 season, but when he went down, the Eagles were 10-2, and finished with the top seed in the NFC and a 13-3 record. Homefield advantage helped them win over the Falcons and Vikings before upsetting the Patriots in Super Bowl LII.
Losing Henry, however, reduces the Titans’ margin for error. They still found ways to win games despite the up-and-down defense being ranked 29th in DVOA last season and 22nd before allowing 31 points to the Colts.
Harold Landry is having a career year, and Jeffery Simmons is one of the best young linemen in the league. Bud Dupree, however, has just one sack in five games, and Janoris Jenkins is allowing 17.7 expected points added as the nearest defender in coverage.
If you’re a Titans fan, you’re hoping that Henry returns in time for the playoffs. Even though reports say that he is expected to miss the rest of the season, regardless of whether or not he comes back, the Titans are going to need to find an identity without him.
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