The old saying that “defense wins championships” has been said throughout the NFL for years.
Having a quarterback who has elite talent is nice and all, but a defense that can counter those talents is arguably more valuable.
Or so we thought.
The constant tweaking of the NFL rules that favor offenses, often because of protecting quarterbacks, it’s now arguable that offense is actually what wins championships in today’s NFL.
Since the 2011 season, only one team went to the Super Bowl with an offense in the bottom half of the league: the 2015 Denver Broncos (25th). The only other teams ranking outside the top 10 in total offense are the 2013 Seattle Seahawks and the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals (both ranked 13th in their respective seasons).
12 of the 22 Super Bowl teams in that span ranked top 5 in total offense. Of those 22 teams, 6 of them were in the bottom-half of the league in total defense, and three of those six ranked 25th or worse in total defense. Only 10 of the 22 Super Bowl teams finished with a top 10 defense.
Even further, out of those 22 teams, half of them made the Super Bowl despite not having a top 10 passing defense, while only two teams made it to the big game despite not having a top 10 passing offense: the 2015 Broncos and the 2012 Baltimore Ravens.
The 2021 Bengals are an outlier, as they are the only team to finish with neither a top 10 offense nor a top 10 defense, yet still made it to the big game.
That’s not to say teams can’t benefit from having an elite defense; it’s still important in the NFL today. However, if a team like the Buffalo Bills, who finished the 2021 season with the top-ranked defense in the NFL, can still allow the Chiefs to drive down the field and score with just 13 seconds left, then the truth can be that elite defenses are not as crucial to a team’s championship aspirations as it used to.
In an era of football where a good tackle that looks bad on TV gets you flagged, just touching the opposing quarterback after he releases the ball gets you flagged, and offenses draw up deep shots specifically to draw defensive pass interference calls, it’s hard for even the best defenses in today’s NFL to do exactly as they should.
Five of the top 10 defenses in the NFL this season, in terms of yardage allowed, didn’t even make the playoffs. Meanwhile, 8 of the league’s top 10 offenses made the playoffs this season.
Last season, the ratio was 8 top 10 defenses to 9 top 10 offenses making the playoffs. The ratio of top 10 defenses to top 10 offenses making the playoffs in the three seasons prior to 2020 were 7:9, 7:8, and 7:8.
From this, more top 10 offenses made the playoffs than top 10 defenses, but it’s been a relatively close battle in each of these five seasons except for 2021. And again, those great defenses don’t really help teams make the Super Bowl once they make the playoffs—all that seemingly matters is a capable offense.
How did the Chiefs lose the AFC Championship Game? Was it because of bad defense? Yeah, their defense wasn’t really all that great, but they did hold the Bengals to just 10 points in the first half and just two touchdowns all game.
They lost that game because an offense that was otherwise virtually unstoppable reverted back to how they were in the first half of the regular season in the final 30 minutes of the game.
Patrick Mahomes looked completely lost in the second half, with him running in circles. In the first half, his passer rating was an outstanding 149.9. In the second half, it fell to 34.0. Putting this into perspective, his passer rating if he just threw the ball to the ground every play would have been 39.6. The offense falling apart was the reason the Chiefs lost this game.
Yes, the Bengals defense made some adjustments in the second half, such as opting to have 8+ defenders into coverage on 45% of their defensive snaps in the second half (a season-high), but they still took a long time to get Mahomes on some snaps. They had great downfield coverage, but the Chiefs’ coaching staff needed to adjust their play calling.
Maybe they could run the ball more often. If they are focused on passing the ball, maybe draw some more hitches, because if every cornerback and linebacker is dropping into coverage, they’re not going to press at the line.
There could be some other suggestions, but the bottom line is that the Chiefs fell apart on the offensive side of the ball, and although the Bengals played good defense, that’s not what won them the AFC Championship Game.
The NFL is a passing league where the quarterbacks run the league. They are what keeps the league running and the NFL is doing everything they can to ensure they stay healthy and that they thrive. Even the most elite of defenses are no match for an elite quarterback in today’s NFL.
Until there is a time where the rules change to help limit the impact a quarterback has in the NFL, offenses are king.
That’s not to say that defenses are no longer capable of winning championships, but they have to be all-time great defenses, and there are not a lot of all-time great defenses around in today’s NFL.
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