The Titans’ 2021 season is filled with some high points, which include beating the Bills, Chiefs, and Rams, but it may be remembered for the low note that they ended on.
Despite playing with a record-setting amount of different players and having to spend the second half of the regular season without Derrick Henry, Mike Vrabel found a way to coach this Titans team to the top seed in the AFC.
Yet they lost in their first playoff game on their home field for the second season in a row.
It’s even worse considering the defense sacked Joe Burrow a record nine times, yet still lost to the Bengals.
In previous years, it looked like the defense was holding the Titans back. This time around, it was the offense.
Ryan Tannehill, the catalyst of the team’s turnaround into a playoff contender back in 2019, was the culprit of the Titans’ playoff disappointment for the second time in as many years.
A year after the Titans scored just 13 points in a wild card loss to the Ravens, Tannehill saved one of his worst games of the 2021 season for the playoffs, throwing three interceptions, his most since his four-interception game against the Texans, and struggling to capitalize on his team’s historic defensive showing.
His first pick came on the very first play of the game, helping the Bengals take an early lead, and his second marked his 4th red zone interception of the season, leading all NFL quarterbacks.
His contract is a four-year, $118 million deal that runs through the 2023 season, but with this loss, he is now 0-3 in his last three playoff starts as the Titans’ starting QB.
He is responsible for the last two losses, despite having homefield advantage. In each of the two playoff wins for Tannehill, he didn’t throw more than 15 passes.
He shouldn’t be blamed for having to lean on Pro Bowl teammates like Henry, but then there’s this season: Even with Henry, D’Onta Foreman, or Dontrell Hilliard powering the run game, Tannehill regressed as a passer, totaling 18 turnovers, the 4th-most among all QBs, compared to 21 touchdowns in 17 games.
This loss to the Bengals was a wasted opportunity to make a deep playoff run, and this is one example of why it doesn’t seem likely they would win a Super Bowl with Tannehill under center.
All the pieces were there for them to advance to the AFC Championship Game, which they would have hosted if they won. Henry made his return. AJ Brown and Julio Jones were healthy. This was a home game as the top seed in the AFC. The defense was playing at a high level.
Yet Tannehill played one of his worst games.
The worst of the three was the one that set up Evan McPherson’s 52-yard game-winning field goal. In the play, it requires the wide receivers to run deep. Tannehill forced the throw into coverage and should have thrown to his tight end underneath after he helped in protection. Even worse, Jones was not even on the field in that play.
Offensive coordinator Todd Downing called a play action pass on the Titans’ first play, which is not bad considering that the Bengals gave up the 5th-most passing yards on play action.
“The safety made a heck of a play,” said Tannehill. “We got Julio switch release there going vertical with a lot of space right there. He squatted on it. I didn’t feel like there was a throw right there to go over the top, so he squatted and drove on it. Usually, the safety is not in that position against that coverage against that play.”
This pick marks the third time, including playoffs, that Tannehill was picked off on the opening possession, joining Drew Brees (2018) and Aaron Rodgers (2009) as the only quarterbacks to throw an interception on the first play of the first drive of a playoff game.
That throw drained all the energy of what would have been an electric atmosphere. The defense salvaged things by holding the Bengals to a field goal, despite them taking over at the Titans’ 42.
Tannehill’s second interception came after Foreman broke free for a 45-yard run to get the ball to the Bengals’ 9.
The Titans overcame the first two picks to get back from a 10-point deficit and had a chance for the game-winning field goal. That would have been the 8th time Tannehill let the Titans to a double-digit comeback.
Instead, he threw the backbreaking pick, attempting to throw towards a tight window to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine that was tipped by Eli Apple and picked off by Logan Wilson.
The end of this game was eerily similar to last season when the Ravens beat the Titans 20-13 that was sealed off by a Tannehill pick at the last offensive snap.
So it’s only fair to put some blame on Tannehill for the playoff losses. The Ravens offense averaged 29.3 points per game in the 2020 regular season, so the defense was able to slow them down, but Tannehill only managed to have the Titans score 13 points.
The Bengals averaged 27.1 points per game in 2021. The Titans defense once again slowed down a high-scoring offense and tied the playoff record of 9 sacks in a game, but Joe Burrow still managed to complete 28 of his 37 passes for 348 yards, including a 19-yard completion to Ja’Marr Chase to set up the game-winning field goal.
See the difference? Burrow was able to overcome a dominant performance from the opposing defense to lead his team to a win. Tannehill hasn’t done that.
It seems the Titans hit their ceiling with Tannehill as their starter. They tried elevating the talent around him when they traded for Jones. Tannehill even agreed to restructure his contract to accommodate for Jones’ $15.3 million salary.
This restructure makes it hard for them to move on from Tannehill after this season. His $24.5 million salary was converted to a signing bonus and will carry on for the next three seasons.
His cap hit is $38.6 million, but if the Titans cut him, they will take on a dead cap hit of $57.4 million. So, barring any unusual deal, they are stuck with him for at least one more season.
Tannehill will turn 34 heading into next season, and he has shown that he is a solid, complimentary quarterback, but not one who can put the team on his back and take them to the Super Bowl. 29 points in the last two playoff losses at home is evidence of that.
It shouldn’t be out of the question to explore if the Titans would benefit from alternatives at QB this offseason. If they can’t trust Tannehill to get over the hump with home playoff games or no. 1 seeds, isn’t a reevaluation something they can do?
It’s not a Carson Wentz situation, but much like Wentz, who was traded by the Eagles after just one bad season overshadowed at least three prior seasons of promise, Tannehill will be judged at least partly on his recent results.
Did injuries to his supporting cast contribute to his 2021 struggles? Yes. Has he earned the Titans’ commitment going into 2022, considering their championship ambitions? That’s a harder question to answer.
They can move on from Tannehill if they wanted to, but it won’t be that easy. They still owe him $29 million in guaranteed money, and they can’t release him without losing almost $20 million.
They could designate him as a post-June release, but even that wouldn’t save them money.
The most feasible path would be a trade, which would save them an instant $10.2 million, not to mention $17.8 million in 2023. They just need to find a trade partner willing to take on the final two seasons of his contract.
There would be a trade market for him. While he may be quite dependent on the Titans’ run-first offense, he has nine years of starting experience, and proving himself to be at least an average QB. Keep an eye on the Broncos, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks, and Washington, who could possibly be interested.
But should the Titans move on from Tannehill? That’s the real question when a team has a QB in the good-but-not-great tier.
If the alternative is someone like a Jimmy Garoppolo or a Kirk Cousins, the answer is probably no. Working hard to avoid the cap charges just to cut Tannehill and adding one of these veterans is like straining a team for the sake of change.
If it’s a big name QB like a Russell Wilson, then why not? Wilson is from a similar-minded old-school contender, and if the Titans are comfortable with the asking price, assuming that he is available, this could be a reason to trade Tannehill.
Convincing Tannehill to take a pay cut is possible, but there are two problems.
First, he and his team are not going to be overly eager to do that, regardless of playoff disappointments. He just renegotiated his deal in 2021 to make room for Jones, which ended up boosting his own stock far less than expected. There’s also the fact that he still led the team to three straight playoff appearances. He's not in danger to get cut, so he has a leverage.
Second, getting Tannehill to take a pay cut may help improve the roster, but it won’t solve the concerns regarding his presence as a starter.
The likeliest option is that Tannehill is returning for a 4th season with the Tians, and his 3rd as the Week 1 starter. The Titans are more likely to reinvest at other positions—wide receiver, with or without Julio, and cornerback, where Janoris Jenkins may end up as a cap casualty, before it resets to the most important position in football.
Although the Titans aren’t likely to show the door, if they feel that they can improve over Tannehill, they won’t hesitate to do so. What are the options?
Patience with Malik Willis
The first choice is that Tannehill won’t be replaced altogether. It would be more of getting a QB in the Draft and developing him, unless Tannehill is off to a horrid start or is injured.
Malik Willis is expected to be drafted in the first round. He is one of the best dual threat QBs in the draft class. Within a few throws, people see the speed Willis has on his passes, and his ability to throw on the run is one to watch.
The most likely route the Titans are going to draft Willis is if they trade up from their spot at 26th overall. They may want to draft no lower than 17th if they were to get him. It’s a high-risk, high-reward pick.
One can argue that Willis has the highest ceiling of all draft-eligible quarterbacks from the 2022 Draft class. He might not be ready to play immediately, but it gives Tannehill another season to see how far he can take the Titans, with the hope that he has a healthier roster.
Trade for a Bridge Starter
Some options on the table for bridge starters include Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins.
Cousins is the slightly more intriguing option, but not by much. He can make the throws, he will take chances, and likely increase the Titans’ points per game while boosting the pass attack.
He’s not going to offer an extra facet, as he can manipulate the defense using his athleticism as Tannehill does, but he is a more prolific passer. Tannehill has just two seasons of over 4,000 passing yards, compared to cousins having just one season below that mark.
Some can say Cousins benefits from the talent the Vikings have, but Cousins has proven to be adept at operating a run-heavy approach while still being able to take over the game through the air at times.
Tannehill had a 42-46 career record before heading to the Titans, where he has had a 30-13 record. Cousins could experience similar success with Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones. Most notably, offensive coordinator Todd Downing was part of the Vikings in 2018, the first year Cousins was a Viking.
Jimmy Garoppolo surpassed all expectations with the 49ers, yet he is still expected to be traded this offseason as the organization paves way for Trey Lance.
There are some reasons why the Titans could land him. Not only has Garoppolo been to a Super Bowl, but he’s three years younger than Tannehill, has the potential to be more affordable, and has a regular season record of 33-14.
Moving to Garoppolo would make the offense less diverse, taking away the ability to execute RPOs where the QB keeps the ball, but the numbers suggest that Garoppolo would be a more accurate thrower than Tannehill. Tannehill has an on-target throw percentage of 81.5%, but a bad throw percentage of 15.9%. Garoppolo, while his on-target throw percentage is 78.9%, his bad throw percentage is 12.9%.
The cap savings aren’t worth swinging a trade, though. Garoppolo is set to earn a base salary of $24.2 million and is expected to demand a contract extension when he is traded. The Titans are better with Tannehill for another season in this case.
All In with Russell Wilson
This is definitely an improvement over Tannehill. If Russell Wilson really wants out, there will be several teams who “weren’t planning to make a change” possibly change their minds. They’re work on themselves to see how interested Russ may want to be playing for their franchise.
And who wouldn’t be interested in adding a Super Bowl champion and seven-time Pro Bowler to their lineup?
Some teams may want to turn Wilson away, hoping that his trade value was impacted by his finger surgery that affected his play throughout the season, but he and the Seahawks put up 51 points in Week 17, where he threw four touchdowns. He is still valuable, even at 33. Coincidentally, that’s Tannehill’s same age.
Wilson may be losing a step, but he is still a QB who can move the chains with his legs just fine, better than most QBs in the league. And he doesn’t turn the ball as much of a frequency as Tannehill did. Wilson lost one fumble and threw six interceptions in 2021, while Tannehill lost four fumbles and threw 17 picks.
Wilson also brings strong leadership, plenty of experience in the Super Bowl, and a stronger arm than Tannehill, while still offering some scrambling ability.
If there is one QB the Titans could be interested in if he becomes available, it’s Wilson. Actually pulling off a trade is a very different story for a team with limited draft capital.
But if the Titans were to move Tannehill, they would best do it until after the 2022 season, when they can save $17.8 million against the cap by trading or cutting him before June 1st, 2023.
The likeliest path the Titans would want to upgrade at the QB position is by drafting one or by acquiring a veteran via free agency or trade. But don’t be surprised if they do this within a season or two.
The Titans are built to win now, but only time will tell if the Titans get a QB. But it’s about time they look at the future at their QB position. Even if they bring him back for one more season, they need to get the future in place. Don’t expect the Titans sticking with him for much longer.
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