The offseason arrived prematurely for the Packers, and it comes with A LOT of Uncertainty. “A lot” in all caps and “uncertainty” with a capital U.
They are currently $46.3 million over the cap, so the front office of Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball have a lot of difficult decisions to make. They have a lot of ways to create cap space, like contract extensions, restructures, and veteran cuts, but there is always give and take. If they keep Davante Adams, who can they not keep? What other contracts have to be reworked? Who will be cut as a result?
They have a total of 23 free agents, whether it be exclusive rights, restricted, and unrestricted. Below is the list of free agents, by category.
Exclusive Rights Free Agents
There is not a lot of freedom these free agents have. Exclusive rights free agents (ERFAs) are players with fewer than three accrued NFL seasons, and as long as their current team offers them a league minimum contract, they have no choice but to accept the deal.
There are eight Packers who are ERFAs, and all are expected to be retained given their low cost and the need to fill out the 90-man roster for training camp and preseason.
Yosh Nijman
It was not known where Nijman was at his development, but he was solid throughout the season. Filling in at left tackle from when Elgton Jenkins suffered a season-ending torn ACL, Nijman was on the field for 590 snaps last season, allowing three sacks and 20 pressures, per PFF. He can certainly play a bigger role in the future, possibly at right tackle.
Krys Barnes
Barnes has his weaknesses, but he made a lot of plays when playing next to De’Vondre Campbell. Barnes played 564 snaps and totaled three pressures, 86 total tackles, and allowed 8.7 yards per catch with four pass breakups.
Malik Taylor
Taylor has been very impressive on special teams as well as a receiver during the preseason and made the 53-man roster. He was the primary kick returner, where he underwhelmed, and he saw little action on offense. He finished the season on IR. In terms of receivers who are under contract in 2022, the Packers have very few options.
Chauncey Rivers
Rivers was signed in the offseason, and, with Za’Darius Smith on IR, he saw playing time, totaling 54 snaps and one pressure in the first four games. He was also a key player on their special teams. Unfortunately, an ACL injury in practice would end his season early.
Henry Black
Black was consistently the Packers’ third safety this season, which had its ups and downs. He finished second in special teams snaps and first in special teams tackles by a wide margin.
Randy Ramsey
Ramsey was the team’s fourth edge rusher in 2020 and a key contributor to their special teams, but he spent the entirety of the 2021 season on IR after a season-ending injury he suffered during the summer.
Dominique Dafney
Dafney, a tight end, brings versatility to the offense, lining up out of the backfield, inline, from the slot, and, at times, out wide. He caught two passes this season for 34 yards, but his primary role revolves around blocking.
Jake Hanson
Hanson is a second-year center out of Oregon. Surprisingly, he made the 53-man roster following the preseason. He saw six snaps on offense during the regular season.
Restricted Free Agents
Restricted free agents (RFAs) have the mots intricacies. RFAs are players with three accrued NFL seasons. They are able to negotiate with other teams, but their current team can place either a first, a second, an original round tender, or a right-of-first-refusal tender on the RFA.
This means if another team makes an offer to an RFA with a second-round tender, the current team has the right to match the offer in order to retain the player, or if they choose not to, they receive a 2nd round pick.
Allen Lazard
In the Packers’ case, their only RFA is Allen Lazard. He started the 2021 season slow, but with Randall Cobb sidelined, Lazard saw his role increase as he looked like a true no. 2 receiving option for Aaron Rodgers. In the final five regular season games, Lazard, a very reliable 3rd down target, caught 21 of his 28 targets for 290 yards and five touchdowns.
Unrestricted Free Agents
Unrestricted free agents (UFAs) are players who can negotiate with any team and can sign with any team that they with for contract value.
Davante Adams
Davante Adams put up another All-Pro season as he continues to show he is a top 3 receiver in the league. According to reports, he and the Packers are off in contract negotiations, with Adams looking for $30 million per year while the Packers are offering $23-25 million.
Robert Tonyan
Robert Tonyan had a slower start to the season, but when he was starting to heat up, he suffered a season-ending injury. The Packers really missed his presence in the red zone, and they were never able to replace his production at tight end.
Rasul Douglas
What a pickup by the Packers. When they were needing stability at the cornerback position, out of nowhere, here comes Rasul Douglas. He finished the season with a 52.2 percent completion rate on 67 targets with five interceptions and seven passes defensed.
De’Vondre Campbell
Campbell was a huge game-changer for the Packers defense. He was a reliable tackler, able to limit pass-catchers, was an effective blitzer, and was rock-solid against the run. If you pick a key stat among linebackers, you’ll find Campbell at or near the top.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Sadly, Marquez Valdes-Scantling battled injuries for the majority of the season, and, in his absence, the offense really missed his big play ability. While it will always be his bread and butter, MVS’ game evolved as he was a lot more effective on middle routes, and, even though it was a small sample size, he was very efficient from the slot.
Lucas Patrick
Lucas Patrick has his ups and downs, but over the last two seasons, with one primarily at right guard and the other at center, he provides much-needed stability on the O-line.
Dennis Kelly
It was a rough showing for Dennis Kelly in the NFC Divisional Round where he allowed five pressures, but in Billy Turner’s absence, he filled in very well, which is why he started in the playoffs. In five games in the regular season, he allowed just one sack and four pressures.
Equanimeous St. Brown
Equanimeous St. Brown began the season on the practice squad, but he was eventually promoted to the active roster, where, in limited fashion, had Packers fans see flashes from him as a receiver, and was occasionally used on jet sweeps. St. Brown finished the season with nine receptions for 98 yards and also became a reliable gunner on special teams.
Tyler Lancaster
Although he won’t show up on the stat sheet, Tyler Lancaster does the dirty work on the D-line, eating up double teams. He is also more of a run defender than a pass rusher. It’s worth mentioning that he played a key role in the blocked field goal against the 49ers, and it wasn’t his first special teams miscue this season.
Chandon Sullivan
Chandon Sullivan was the team’s primary slot cornerback, and he put together a decent season. He finished 5th in snaps per reception, 3rd in snaps per target, and 10th in yards per snap among all slot corners, per PFF.
Corey Bojorquez
It’s been up and down for Corey Bojorquez, but he was a significant upgrade at punter over JK Scott. Bojorquez pinned opponents inside the 10 as well as along the sidelines, and he also showed his ability to flip the field.
Kevin King
As the season went on, Kevin King’s role was reduced with the emergence of Douglas and Eric Stokes, although over the last few weeks, he was used in dime situations to help cover the middle of the field. King finished the season allowing 19 receptions on 26 targets for 275 yards along with an interception and two pass breakups.
Whitney Mercilus
When he joined the Packers, Whitney Mercilus was revitalized, totaling 10 pressures, one sack, and ranking 32nd among all edge rushers from Weeks 7 to 9 in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric before injuring his biceps.
Oren Burks
Oren Burks had a more effective season under the first year of defensive coordinator Joe Barry, along with his willingness to move around more. Burks was also a key special teams contributor.
If the flop in the playoffs wasn’t bad enough, this is very likely the last time the Packers are labeled as contenders for now.
All eyes are on Aaron Rodgers for the next two months or so as he ponders about his future in the NFL. He is still under contract for the 2022 season, but retirement is also an option, even if it is the most unlikely outcome, or maybe he could be traded to another team for a fresh start.
He told reporters after the flop against the 49ers that he doesn’t want to be part of a rebuild, which is understandable given that he is 37. That’s not to say the Packers are going full rebuild mode, but the roster is going to look very different, and it’s likely that they take a step backwards.
On the bright side, the relationship between Rodgers and Gutekunst has improved, and Rodgers even acknowledged that. Given that aspect, along with the slim chance the Packers could still compete, there is a window for Rodgers to return.
Them being $46.3 million over the cap is just the starting point. That does not include the incoming draft class, the practice squad, or any reserves for in-season spending, not to mention free agent additions or the re-signing of their own free agents.
When it comes to the additional cap space needed, a few options the Packers have are through contract extensions, contract restructures, or cutting veterans whose cap hit is greater than their dead cap hit.
Some key veterans who are under contract for the 2022 season but come with salary cap savings if cut are Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Billy Turner, Mason Crosby, and Dean Lowry. Jaire Alexander is an extension candidate, with Kenny Clark and David Bakhtiari being restructure candidates.
So, if they were to bring back Davante Adams, they can, but it’s easier said than done. If he stays, who do they have to cut, or what other financial gymnastics do they have to do? The same goes for any player or combination of players the Packers choose to re-sign.
On top of that, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett accepted a job offer to become the head coach of the Broncos. And because special teams coordinator Maurice Drayton was fired, the Packers are looking for another special teams coordinator yet again.
In addition to the roster turnover that could take place, it appears that the coaching staff is going to look different, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
Question 1: Will Aaron Rodgers Be Back?
This is the biggest question that has to be answered since he could likely be the first domino to fall when it comes to how things will turn out in the offseason for the Packers. Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Will he come back to Green Bay? Will he be traded?
As mentioned before, he said he does not want to be part of a rebuild and even though the Packers are in cap hell, a rebuild might not be the case for their immediate future. There will be a roster turnover, but they have a good core of players that include Alexander, Kenny Clark, Eric Stokes, and Rashan Gary; most of the O-line is expected to be back, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, and, presumably, Allen Lazard. Also, when looking at who will be cut or who won’t be re-signed, they’re not going to get gutted.
And while Rodgers has a great relationship with Hackett, it gets more challenging heading to the AFC West. With the Broncos, Rodgers will face Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs, Justin Herbert’s Chargers, and a Raiders team that made the playoffs a combined six times each season. Not to mention that Josh Allen’s Bills, Lamar Jackson’s Ravens and Joe Burrow’s Bengals are also in the mix in the AFC. The NFC, as well as the NFC North, is much more wide open on the flip side.
Question 2: Will Davante Adams Be Back?
It doesn’t have to be this way, but if Rodgers is back, then Davante Adams is likely back too. If the Packers and Adams can’t come to a deal, it’s not surprising if it affects what Rodgers does.
The report is that Adams is looking for a deal paying him an average of $30 million per year, while the Packers are going more for the $23-25 million per year range. He wants to be the highest-paid receiver in the NFL, but the disconnect between him and the Packers is in regards to who is the highest paid receiver in all of football.
Adams is likely going to see the two-year extension DeAndre Hopkins signed with the Cardinals at $27.25 million per year as the standard. However, Hopkins came to the Cardinals with a three-year contract still in place. When adding that new money to what he is already owed, his average annual value is $18.9 million.
There are also reports that the Packers could use the franchise tag on Adams, but the only way this can happen is if they plan to trade him. Cap-wise, this makes little sense because Adams won’t be happy with it.
Historically, the Packers only hand out third contracts to players who have a legitimate chance of making the Hall of Fame, and that is the case with Adams. While they have to work around the salary cap, if they want Adams back, they can make it happen, but some players are not going to be retained and others are going to have to get cut.
Question 3: How do the Packers Get Under the Salary Cap?
There are a lot of ways that they can do this. They could restructure any of the contracts with Jones, Alexander, Bakhtiari, or Clark to free up cap space. They can also look to extend players, including Rodgers, Adrian Amos, or Preston Smith.
In addition, they are going to have to cut some veterans, but that could include a combination of Amos, Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith, Randall Cobb, Mason Crosby, Billy Turner, or Dean Lowry. Trading Rodgers can free up cap space too.
There are a lot of financial moves that can be made to get the Packers under the cap, but there are going to be tradeoffs in every decision. If one player is kept in the roster, what corresponding moves have to be made to have it work financially? There are not going to be easy decisions, either.
Question 4: Will Either De’Vondre Campbell or Rasul Douglas Be Back?
For the first time in what felt like a long time, the Packers had a game-changing inside linebacker in De’Vondre Campbell.
Campbell is a true three-down linebacker, a reliable tackler who was able to limit pass-catchers in the passing game, and was sound in the run game, and an effective blitzer.
Among all linebacker, he finished the season near the top in yards per catch allowed, fewest missed tackles, solo tackles, and in PFF’s grading system.
Rasul Douglas was another outstanding addition, as he provided stability to the cornerback room when they really needed it. Douglas finished the season allowing a completion rate of 52.2 percent on 67 targets and at only 10.3 yards per catch, per PFF. He also had five interceptions, seven pass breakups, and a passer rating allowed of 51.9.
Both players are in line for a payday, but are either of them coming from Green Bay? The Packers would want either player back, and they can make it happen. It will require additional maneuvering of other contracts through restructures and cuts, and it will also limit who the Packers will keep as well.
Question 5: What will Be the Biggest Positions of Need?
This is largely dependent on who is brought back and how free agency goes, but as of right now, edge rusher, wide receiver, and tight end are a few things coming to mind.
If they choose to move on from both Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, edge rusher becomes their top priority with Rashan Gary as their only reliable edge rusher on their roster. As it stands at receiver, the only players under contract for 2022 is Randall Cobb, who is a likely cut candidate, Amari Rodgers, and practice squad players Chris Blair and Rico Gafford.
If neither Robert Tonyan nor Marcedes Lewis are brought back, the Packers are going to be very thin at tight end and they could use a true pass catcher at that position—Tonyan’s presence was really missed when he was out. On top of that, it’s never a bad idea to bolster the O-line depth or the interior D-line either.
There can be a thorough plan that has been in place for months. In fact, they have a number of ways to get themselves out of cap hell. Rodgers’ decision weighs heavily on the immediate future, and you can wonder in which ways they can clear cap space this offseason.
Extend or Trade Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers’ contract is the biggest piece to all this. His 2022 cap it is at $46.7 million, which is completely untenable for the team, but extending him or trading him away would create big savings.
It’s a matter of timing—reworking the deal could save $10-15 million, per Ken Ingalls, a Packers shareholder and CPA who analyzes the team’s salary cap and roster. and the savings would hit the cap immediately, helping the Packers get under the cap before the start of the new season.
A trade to a different team could save them almost $20 million, but the Packers won’t get the cap benefit until the trade is processed after the start of the new season.
So, Rodgers’ decision is going to set the path of the Packers’ entire offseason. A lot more options open up if he wants to come back on a restructured deal. They will have to find savings elsewhere if he wants to be traded.
Restructure David Bakhtiari’s Contract
The Packers restructured David Bakhtiari’s contract last offseason to create cap room, and they will likely do it again in 2022.
He has a $9.5 million roster bonus due in March, and turning the bonus into a signing bonus would spread the charges over the final three seasons of his deal and provide immediate relief.
The move could save over $9 million on the cap in 2022, per Ingalls.
Pushing more guaranteed money into the future years on Bakhtiari’s contract is not ideal, especially after he played just one game this season while struggling through recovery from ACL reconstruction, but the Packers almost have to go this path to create cap space. His cap hits in 2023 and 2024 will eat up a lot of space.
Cut Za’Darius Smith
Za’Darius Smith’s cap number heading into the final year of his contract is $27.7 million, over 13 percent of the cap. It has to be adjusted.
More than likely, he has played his last snap as a Packer.
They would have to eat almost $12.4 million in dead cap if they were to cut him, but they would also save almost $15.3 million. Smith was dominant in 2019 and 2020, but he played just two of 18 games in 2021 while dealing with a back injury that needed surgery.
The Packers would have to get very creative to get him back at a reasonable price in 2022.
Even after an injury-plagued season, Smith would be a highly sought-after free agent if he is cut.
Restructure Kenny Clark’s Contract
Kenny Clark’s cap hit in 2022 is set at almost $20.9 million, but the Packers can get that lower with a restructure.
He has a base salary of $8.25 million and a roster bonus of $6.4 million, and both can be converted to a signing bonus to push money into the future and save now. Ingalls says that void years could be used to create almost $11 million in cap space in 2022.
Like Bakhtiari, Clark’s cap hits are going to be big in 2023 and 2024. But he is still 26 and in his prime, so the Packers are comfortable with the situation.
Cut or Extend Preston Smith
Preston Smith returned to the Packers on a reworked deal in 2021, and he responded with 9 sacks and a career-high 62 pressures.
He will go into the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $19.7 million, but the Packers could save $12.5 million if he is cut.
With Za’Darius Smith likely gone, it’s not out of the question if the Packers part ways with both Smiths.
Extending Preston Smith would help the team save $6-8 million in 2022, while also keeping a productive veteran presence at a premium position in Green Bay, per Ingalls.
Extend Jaire Alexander
The Packers exercised Jaire Alexander’s 5th-year option, so he will head into the 2022 season with a cap hit of almost $13.3 million.
A big extension for the young All-Pro cornerback would lower his cap hit by as much as $7 million next season, per Ingalls. The deal is certain to get done at some point in 2022, but it’s more of a matter of when the two sides agree.
Cut Randall Cobb
Randall Cobb’s cap hit is at $9.5 million. The Packers are going to either release him and gain almost $6.8 million in cap relief, or try and find a reworked deal that significantly lowers his cap hit next season.
The team is almost guaranteed to use Cobb’s contract to create savings this month. While a he is a close friend of Rodgers and a fan favorite, he is also 31 and is coming off a season where he missed the final five games because of core muscle surgery.
Cut or Restructure Adrian Amos
Adrian Amos is entering the final year of his contract of almost $12 million in 2022. The Packers could save between $4.7 million and almost $8 million by either restructuring his contract or cutting him.
Amos brings leadership to the team and is a rock-solid player at safety, and the Packers can be confident that he’ll be a productive player for a few more seasons.
Restructuring his contract is a safe bet. There is a lot of dead money ($7.3 million) involved if he is cut.
Cut or Restructure Mason Crosby
The 37-year-old Mason Crosby is heading into the final season of his contract with a cap hit of almost $4.8 million. Cutting him would immediately save $2.4 million.
He is nearing the end of his career, and the Packers have a kicker on their reserve/futures list (JJ Molson).
If he wants to continue playing in Green Bay, and the Packers are open to the idea, a restructure or pay cut could lower his cap hit to a more reasonable number in 2022.
Cut or Restructure Marcedes Lewis
Marcedes Lewis will turn 38 in may and has a cap hit of $4.5 million in 2022, the final year of his contract.
The Packers can get close to $2.5 million in cap relief by cutting him, but if he wants to play another season, the team and player could get a restructure to lower his cap hit in 2022.
Lewis played well in 2021, and he is both a key player on the offense and is a leader in the locker room. The Packers will still have to find a way to save cap space with his contract.
Restructure or Cut Dean Lowry
Dean Lowry is coming off the best season of his career, but he will count $8.1 million against the cap in 2022. Cutting him would save almost $4.1 million, but a restructure might make more sense.
He is 27, and the 2021 season was his best in terms of rushing the passer, a valuable skill. There is a big dead money charge in 2023 when his current deal voids.
Extending his contract could save money now and help eliminate dead money later on. Up to $3.1 million in saving is available per a restructure, per Ingalls.
Restructure or Cut Billy Turner
Billy Turner’s cap hit rises to $9.2 million in 2022. Cutting him would save $3.4 million but would cost $5.8 million in dead money.
A restructure makes more sense, especially considering his contracts ends after 2022. Even at 30, he is an effective and valuable player on the O-line. Restructuring would save a similar amount as cutting if done right.
Restructure Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones’ cap hit in 2022 is $8.9 million, but the Packers can save a good amount of money by converting his $3.75 million roster bonus into a signing bonus and spreading the charge over the final three seasons of his deal.
Per Ingalls, the move would save between $2.5-3 million on the cap in 2022. Getting guaranteed money out to future years on a running back’s contract isn’t ideal, but the Packers need cap space.
All in all, they know what lies ahead and they won’t be able to keep anyone. With the amount of money they must cut this season, they won’t be able to sign everyone and there are players who are going to be cap casualties.
Free Agents They Won't Re-Sign
Lucas Patrick
Lucas Patrick has been a great lineman for the Packers in his time in the Frozen Tundra. He showed his versatile in the 2021 season when he came off the bench to start at center in the absence of Josh Myers and then slid back to the right guard spot upon Myers’ return.
However, the Packers invested a lot of draft stock to the O-line, which means they have to replace guys like Patrick next season.
Myers will continue to start at center, with Elgton Jenkins taking back the left guard spot upon his return from injury. Royce Newman, despite his struggles, can continue playing at right guard, with Jon Runyan Jr. starting at either guard spot depending on Jenkins’ health.
This leaves four guys capable of playing on the inside and with Patrick moving on this offseason. That’s not to mention Yosh Nijman, an ERFA that they are most certainly retaining, could shift over to the right tackle spot.
Tyler Lancaster
The D-line has been a mess for the Packers for a few years and there is no clear answer to solving their problem on the roster.
Kenny Clark is still their key centerpiece, but he is receiving very little help along with him. Dean Lowry is a cut candidate, which could leave the Packers even thinner along the defensive front.
However, they have some young players who could step up to play bigger roles, which include TJ Slaton and Jack Heflin. It won’t be nice to see, but they’re going to have to cut money.
Rasul Douglas
Rasul Douglas was a nice story that highlighted how far hard work and the right opportunity can go. The Packers got him from the Cardinals’ practice squad, and he proceeded to get a starting job with them and become their best cornerback for the 2021 season.
Unfortunately, they don’t own his rights in the offseason, and he is set to be a UFA. He did show his love for Green Bay and that he wants to come back, but that’s easier said than done.
He is going to demand more money on the open market than the Packers could pay him. Besides, they already have two starting cornerbacks in Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes.
De’Vondre Campbell
De’Vondre Campbell is another success story for the Packers’ defense from last season.
He was signed in the offseason after failing to secure an opportunity with another team. However, he got the starting inside linebacker job over Krys Barnes and never let it go.
Campbell flew all over the field and was amazing against both the run and pass. His speed was on full display in every snap and he was a solid tackler. Packers fans didn’t see this kind of play from the inside linebacker position in years.
Now, he heads back to the free agent market with an All-Pro selection under his belt. It should help him attract suitors, driving his price tag further out of the Packers’ range.
Cap Casualties
Dean Lowry
Lowry was playing some of the best football of his career down the stretch of the 2021 season, but saving $4 million by cutting him is too good to pass up. Slaton and Heflin are going to be playing prominent roles on the D-line next season.
The question on if they are going to step up is yet to be answered, but Lowry is gone unless he agrees to take a pay cut to stay.
Preston Smith
After a down season in 2020, Preston Smith had a bounce-back campaign in 2021 in a major way, and was great against the run and pass alike.
A lot of it was due to his new role under defensive coordinator Joe Barry. He wasn’t asked to drop into coverage nearly as much and could focus on the line of scrimmage.
It’s going to be a big loss for the Packers, as he has been as durable as they come since he came. He is still a good player and will likely be able to get a nice contract elsewhere if he chooses.
Randall Cobb
Randall Cobb was the first move the Packers made after Aaron Rodgers came to a mutual agreement with Brian Gutekunst and the rest of the front office.
He had an okay season in his return, but not good enough to justify him having count as $9.5 million against the cap next season. It’s going to get tricky since the Packers want to convince Rodgers to stay.
What could work best for that is if they cut him and then sign him to a smaller deal that is more equivalent to his worth. That would work best for both sides.
Za’Darius Smith
The Packers played the entire 2021 season without Za’Darius Smith and proved they could get it done. A lot of it has to do with the continued emergence of Rashan Gary, who is ready to take the next step.
Still, Smith is going to be missed in Green Bay. He was terrific in his first two seasons there and was one of the vocal leaders of the team.
If he can get back healthy, he still has a lot to give to a football team. Unfortunately, it will not be the Packers.
And knowing their needs and offseason plans should know where the roster stands. It should paint a clear picture of what Gutekunst is facing in the offseason, both from a personnel and salary cap standpoint.
Quarterback
Under Contract (4): Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Danny Etling
Free Agents (0): None
Rodgers just won MVP for the second straight season, but he’s likely going to make a decision on his future, and the Packers can’t go on and execute the plan until he says what he wants to do.
The three options are to retire, request a trade, or to stay with the Packers. Expect this decision to come next month.
However, the likeliest option could be a trade, as his contract sits at a $46.7 million cap hit. Reworking his deal for another year, taking less money, or retiring could be off the table.
If they extend him, they save $10-15 million in savings and cap before the March 16th deadline. If they trade him, things get tighter as they have to hold onto his contract until after the March 16th deadline as trades are not allowed beforehand, even if a deal is reported earlier. That would mean his cap savings if traded of $19.8 million will not be allowed until after the beginning of free agency.
Jordan Love is entering the 3rd season of his career, and the Packers brought back Kurt Benkert and Danny Etling on futures deals, ensuring there will be depth at the QB position regardless of Rodgers’ decision.
If Rodgers leaves, Love will be thrust into the spotlight. The biggest question is if he is ready to be a starter. He is on the 3rd year of his rookie contract, and the Packers must decide if they want to exercise his 5th year option after the 2022 season.
Ideally, they would want to see him in extended action before making the decision.
If they stick to Rodgers, they would be forced to trade Love elsewhere as he and his agent would want Love on a realistic path to having an opportunity to be a starter.
Benkert is the leading candidate to be QB2 or QB3 depending on how things play out. Maybe the Packers could bring in another QB or two, possibly in the Draft too.
Running Back
Under Contract (4): Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Kylin Hill, Patrick Taylor
Free Agents (0): None
The running back group may be the most stable on the Packers. Jones and Dillon are coming back as the 1-2 punch after both totaled over 1,000 total yards in 2021, and both Kylin Hill and Patrick Taylor have shown flashes to be a capable RB3.
They have the depth, young talent, and cheap contracts, and no free agents to worry about in this position. They are all locked up through at least 2023.
Jones has the 10th-highest cap hit on the roster at almost $9 million and is a lock to restructure his contract to free up between $2.5-3.1 million. Dillon, Hill, and Taylor are all on their rookie or minimum deals ineligible for cap-saving restructures and are all going to be on the roster for training camp.
They could add another name through the Draft, but this is not one of their biggest needs.
Wide Receiver
Under Contract (5): Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree, Rico Gafford, Chris Blair
Free Agents (5): Davante Adams, Allen Lazard (RFA), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Taylor (ERFA)
There is no position on the Packers’ roster that needs more work than the wide receiver, and this is the position that is the most difficult to figure out financially. Randall Cobb is under contract, but he’s not coming back at his current price in 2022.
There are questions on if Davante Adams will get the franchise tag and if they can use the restricted tender on Allen Lazard. Is there enough money to bring back Marquez Valdes-Scantling? They’re likely going to have to add 2 or 3 new players to this position group in the offseason.
Little has been done to remedy the situation. Cobb is the lone veteran on the group that is under contract and is a likely cut candidate, whose $9.5 million cap hit being the 8th-highest on the team.
If he’s not cut, he is going to have to take a pay cut to save $6.7 million. His relationship with Aaron Rodgers can’t be ignored—it’s no secret that the reason he wore the Green & Gold was because of Rodgers’ demands.
It could shake up the roster if the Packers are forced to balance Rodgers’ happiness and business decisions, as the next most experienced player after Cobb is Juwan Winfree.
There is talk on placing the franchise tag on Adams to either force him to stay or to trade him away for a premium package of draft capital. The cap situation makes this hard to pull off.
The order of operations for the franchise tag is an obstacle given they have the second-worst cap space entering the offseason.
To franchise tag him, they would be charged $20.12 million against the cap and then have to get past the March 16th deadline with this amount with them. Depending on other cap-saving moves they can or cannot pull off becomes an overwhelming task getting closer to the deadline and it could prove to be near-impossible.
Even if they work by the numbers, there is a huge opportunity cost having the $20.12 million tag with them—they could probably bring back four or five other top free agents for this amount, but instead risk allowing them to have other suitors via free agency.
The likeliest path for Adams coming back always has to be a long-term deal and avoiding the franchise tag through a tough negotiation.
It’s no secret he wants to be the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL, pointing to DeAndre Hopkins’ $27.5 million per year deal as the one to beat, but the Packers are going to argue that this is heavily misleading, and it is actually closer to a $18.9 million per year deal.
One hurdle is that they handed a similar bloated contract when they made David Bakhtiari the highest-paid tackle over Laremy Tunsil.
There’s going to be a lot of “negotiating through the media” as the talks go off the rails and could possibly end in him walking, signing long-term, being tagged and traded, or tagged ending in a deal, no new deal, and/or a holdout. The likeliest choice is that Adams leaves.
Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown are UFAs, and it wouldn’t be surprising if both leave. The Packers need receivers, so there can be the likelihood that one comes back, especially if they can’t keep Adams.
Lazard is an RFA and is possibly facing either a 2nd round tender at $3.986 million or the lower right of first refusal tender at $2.433 million to come back on a one-year deal. It wouldn’t be surprising if he tests free agency, either.
Malik Taylor is an ERFA, and he should return on a minimum contract for training camp.
Amari Rodgers is the only wide receiver on the roster under contract past the 2022 season, and his rookie season left more questions than answers for the long-term future of the group.
This group is one that is going to look very different and is a crucial need at the Draft.
Tight End
Under Contract (3): Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis
Free Agents (2): Robert Tonyan, Dominique Dafney (ERFA)
Lewis will turn 38, but he is staving off Father Time and is under contract at a reasonable price in 2022, which creates a tough roster-building decision. In all likelihood, he’s going to be gone, either via cut or retirement, saving $2.95 million on the cap. But that decision will have to come fast as he is due a $2 million roster bonus early in the season and they don’t want it hitting the cap.
Tonyan’s price likely went down after missing half of the season with a season-ending knee injury, but he could still move on in free agency. Getting him back at a team-friendly price is going to be big for the team.
His receiving ability was missed in the second half of the 2022 season. The bad news is that if he doesn’t return, he will still cost $1.88 million on the cap in 2022 because of the backloading method they used to get under the cap in 2021.
Dominique Dafney is an ERFA and should be back on a $895k deal. Even if he is going to return, the Packers are going to have to add a player or two.
Josiah Deguara and Tyler Davis are capable role players, but they are likely not going to be counted on to be full-time options. They’re likely going to bank on the continued development of Deguara to lead this position group in 2022, but they are going to look for more puzzle pieces via the Draft or free agency.
Offensive Line
Under Contract (8): David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Billy Turner, Jon Runyan Jr., Josh Myers, Royce Newman, Cole Van Lanen, Michael Menet
Free Agents (4): Lucas Patrick, Yosh Nijman (ERFA), Dennis Kelly, Jake Hanson
The O-line group looks strong, especially if Yosh Nijman and Jake Hanson are retained on exclusive rights deals. Returning both would give them 10 players under contract on the O-line.
Gutekunst proved himself of finding cheap veterans and drafting quality linemen, so expect him to go both ways—free agency and the Draft—to keep adding on here.
The big question is if Billy Turner will return, or if the Packers are going to see potential cap savings here.
Like the running back position, the O-line is loaded with talented starters locked up for several years. Bakhtiari has the team’s third-highest cap hit at $22.2 million.
The Packers are going to have to restructure his contract to free up space this season, anywhere up to $9.3 million, but they may want to go lighter because they performed a full restructure to get under the cap in 2021 and made big restructures, which creates significant dead cap concerns.
At some point, the cap hits are going to exceed those of a franchise QB, which is far from ideal. There is a lot of speculation they could trade or cut Bakhtiari because he costs a lot and the team performed well in his 2021 absence, but that would cost the Packers more to move on from him than keep him.
Turner did a full restructure with void years last season and he has the 9th-highest cap hit, at $9.2 million. If they keep Turner, they will push more of his money out to create up to $3.5 million, or they could cut him and save $3.4 million.
The possibility of holding his deal past March 16th to either trade him and save the $3.4 million or even utilize a “post-June 1st” cut designation to increase the cap savings to over $6 million shouldn’t be ruled out, though.
Elgton Jenkins received a $2.6 million proven performance escalator raise for being named to the Pro Bowl in 2020 and is heading to his final season, but is still considered to be a cheap rookie deal.
Don’t see an extension in the works before the season, as it is going to add to the cap cost, even with the PPE bump. They could restructure his deal for $2.4 million of savings, but he could refuse and petition for an extension instead.
Lucas Patrick and Dennis Kelly are UFAs, and neither are expected to return. Nijman and Hanson will return as cheap ERFAs. Everyone else on the roster are on cheap deals.
This is not a big need, but expect the Packers to come away with O-line reinforcement in the Draft.
Defensive Line
Under Contract (4): Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, TJ Slaton, Jack Heflin
Free Agents (1): Tyler Lancaster
The core is solid, but Lowry is not guaranteed to return at his current price in 2022, and Lancaster could leave in free agency.
If Lowry doesn’t come back, the D-line will be a top offseason priority. It’s possible that his resurgent 2021 season will give them the incentive to rework his deal and keep him past the 2022 season.
Kenny Clark signed a massive extension in the 2020 season and structured the deal in a way to keep his 2021 salary low. Unfortunately, his cap hit nearly triples to $20.9 million, the 4th-highest on the team.
Restructuring the deal should be a no-brainer, as it allows the Packers to free up to $10.9 million if they utilize void years.
Lowry has the 11th-highest cap hit at $8 million and was also restructured in 2021.
They have a lot of options to do with him—do nothing, restructure him and save up to $3.1 million, cut or trade him to save $4 million, or hold onto him and post-June 1st cut him for $5.9 million savings.
TJ Slaton and Jack Heflin are the other guys under contract and they should stick around on their cheap contracts. Lancaster is a UFA who shouldn’t be ruled out for coming back on a near-minimum type deal.
Expect the Packers to invest in the Draft, especially after they cut Kingsley Keke in the playoffs for reported personal issues with the team.
Edge Rusher
Under Contract (6): Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith, Rashan Gary, Jonathan Garvin, Tipa Galeai, Ladarius Hamilton
Free Agents (3): Whitney Mercilus, Chauncey Rivers (ERFA), Randy Ramsey (ERFA)
The plans for both Smiths will define the position group in the offseason. Neither are expected to come back at their 2022 price tag, but reworking their contracts is an option. In the event both leave, they will have to reinvest more resources to help Gary.
This is a position group that is going to change drastically next season. Za’Darius Smith is on par to have the second-highest cap hit on the team, at $27.7 million, and has likely played his last snaps in Green Bay. The team would get $15.3 million in cutting him.
There is a chance for a Hail Mary kind of pay cut, but given his $12.4 million dead cap, this doesn’t look likely.
Preston Smith was at risk to be cut before the 2021 season, but he took a $4 million pay cut and contract restructure to stay.
They have several options with his 5th-highest cap hit of $19.7 million, including cutting Preston to save $12.5 million. Preston is a prime extension candidate, which can save the Packers $6-8 million on the cap along the way to pair with Gary for several years.
Trading either Smith is out of the question, because they would have to carry their massive cap hits past the March 16th cap deadline.
Jonathan Garvin, Tipa Galeai and Ladarius Hamilton have been rotational players behind the Smiths and Gary and the Packers have to hope someone out of these guys makes a real jump in the 2022 season with at least one of the Smiths leaving.
The Packers could try and restructure $1.4 million of cap space out of Gary, but he would likely leverage against this for an extension instead; however, with the 5th-year option likely being exercised, the Packers are not in a rush to extend him.
Garvin is the only player under contract beyond the 2022 season, and it’s expected the Packers make edge rusher a priority in the Draft, especially if both of the Smiths are gone.
Inside Linebacker
Under Contract (3): Ty Summers, Isaiah McDuffie, Ray Wilborn
Free Agents (3): De'Vondre Campbell, Krys Barnes (ERFA), Oren Burks
It is soon to be found out how much the Packers actually value the inside linebacker position.
Campbell was an outstanding find and nothing short of a revelation, but now he will enter the UFA field after producing an All-Pro season in 2021. He is going to be expensive to keep.
Krys Barnes should return, but it’s possible the Packers are moving on from Oren Burks, a missed 3rd round pick.
The three guys under contract at the position—Ty Summers, Isaiah McDuffie, and Ray Wilborn—are likely nothing more than special teams players.
Summers is the veteran leader of the group heading into the last season of his rookie contract. McDuffie and Wilborn fill out the other two spots on cheap minimum contracts. Barnes should return on his pending ERFA deal.
But most of the conversation revolves around Campbell, whose contract is scheduled to void in March, making him a UFA.
If the Packers can’t get a new deal done before March 16th, they will be hit with $808k from the void backloading structure coming due.
Packer fans are going to find ways to keep Campbell, but he is not going to come at a cheap price, and he should sign an eight-figure per year elsewhere. Barnes could end up getting his starting role back by default if Campbell walks and no other names enter the roster.
They’re surely going to need reinforcements and replacements, but don’t count out premium Draft capital being used at the position.
Cornerback
Under Contract (5): Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Shemar Jean-Charles, Kabion Ento, Kiondre Thomas
Free Agents (4): Rasul Douglas, Chandon Sullivan, Kevin King, Isaac Yiadom
Having Alexander and Stokes under contract helps them, but big decisions should be made here.
Douglas had an incredible season after coming to Green Bay, and other teams are going to be willing to offer big deals to get a young cornerback coming off a five-interception season.
He, Chandon Sullivan, and Kevin King are UFAs. If Douglas is not brought back, retaining Sullivan or King may become a bigger priority.
There is talent at the top of the cornerback depth chart for the Packers, but it gets thin at the bottom.
Alexander is the 6th-most expensive Packer, at a $13.3 million cap hit on his fully-guaranteed 5th-year option salary. They need to get him to an extension to lower this number and lock him up long-term.
There are ways to make him the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL and still save at least $5-7 million in cap space in 2022. He’s going to look at the idea of a restructure and he has the leverage to get the money now.
Stokes and Shemar Jean-Charles were draft picks from 2021 and don’t provide financial flexibility. Kabion Ento and Kiondre Thomas are on minimum deals.
They need a talent infusion between Alexander and Stokes, and many are hoping that Douglas returns.
Douglas commented that he would take more than a minimum to come back, but his agent likely advised him against that idea. He is a strong candidate to return, but based on what the Packers can prioritize, he can land elsewhere.
Sullivan could return later in free agency, but if not, he would still cost $1 million in cap from his void years.
King is a polarizing free agent again, and he will cost $3 million if he is not on the roster from last year’s void year restructuring. It’s an interesting scenario where the Packers could sign King to an extension before March 16th, pay him the minimum, and still save $1.2 million on the cap to contribute on the depth.
It doesn’t look like it, but corner is a critical need for the Packers with Douglas, Sullivan, and King all facing the free agent market. Expect the Packers to prioritize the cornerback position in the Draft again.
Safety
Under Contract (5): Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage Jr., Vernon Scott, Shawn Davis, Innis Gaines
Free Agents: Henry Black (ERFA)
The safety group looks strong, even if Henry Black is retained on an ERFA deal. The Packers may need to rework Amos’ deal to get under the cap.
As long as there is no unexpected departure, safety is going to be a low-priority position. Then again, the Packers would want to upgrade the third position spot, which is increasingly important in today’s game.
Amos has the 7th-most expensive contract for the Packers in the 2022 season at $11.98 million, and the Packers could go any direction with him, like Turner and Lowry.
They can restructure, cut, or trade him after March 16th, and it would result in roughly $4.7 million of savings, while a post-June 1st cut would jump this up to $7.9 million. An extension isn’t out of the question, but that wouldn’t help a lot on the cap.
Everyone else on the roster is on cheap rookie minimum deals.
The Packers have to decide on Darnell Savage Jr.’s 5th-year option in the coming months, or 2022 would be the final year of his deal. They could get another $1 million out of his deal via restructure, but Savage would want to agree to an extension.
Vernon Scott is the only player signed past 2022 as a safety, and he is suddenly becoming a need for the upcoming season.
Special Teams
Under Contract (3): Mason Crosby, JJ Molson, Steven Wirtel
Free Agents (1): Corey Bojorquez
There is no guarantee that Mason Crosby will return on his cap hit in 2022. He may need to take a pay cut to return. Retirement is also an option for him. He missed 10 field goals in the 2021 season. The Packers like JJ Molson.
Corey Bojorquez had a strong start to his first season in Green Bay, but he faded down the stretch, like many punters do when the weather turns a cold corner. He is talented enough to want back in 2022.
Figuring out the long snapper spot should also be a priority. It’s also possible that the Packers will have three new specialists to start next season.
If Crosby doesn’t retire, he is either getting cut or traded. The Packers carried Molson on their practice squad and placed protection designations on him throughout the 2021 season to make sure he stays with them.
The plan on kicker is in place, and the Packers will save $2.4 million before June 1st or $3.4 million afterwards.
It’s not known who their long snapper will be. Whoever takes the job will make the league minimum.
Bojorquez is a UFA after the Packers traded for him. They will either pay him a few million to stick around or go with a draft pick or a cheap free agent at the position.
All in all, it’s going to be a very tough offseason for the Packers considering the financial constraints and with 23 players in free agency, many of whom are household names among Packer fans. They have to make the right moves having to climb out of their cap hell. But it’s not going to be easy.
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