This marks the end of an era in the State of Hockey.
Remember when, on July 4th, 2012, when the Wild signed both Parise and Suter to a 13-year, $98 million contracts? The final four years of both of their contracts were bought out.
They were the faces of the franchise for the past decade, but they are both past their prime. They can still be of value on a different team, however.
Short-Term Impacts
In buying out both contracts, they want to gather enough cap space for their immediate future. Buying out Parise and Suter saves $10.3M for the 2022 season, while requiring the Wild to carry a tad over $4.74M in dead cap.
This extra space gives Guerin room to get deals done, such as extending Nick Bonino and Ian Cole, locking up Kevin Fiala and Kirill Kaprizov, and potentially trading for Chrstian Dvorak, who has been linked to the Wild in trade rumors.
Joel Eriksson Ek already signed his 8-year extension with the Wild, while Fiala and Kaprizov are waiting for their extensions. Fiala is likely going to get a five-year deal at an average annual value of around $6M, while Kaprizov is getting either a bridge deal, a max. contract, or somewhere in between, with the highest salary possibly being either $9M or $10M AAV.
So, for the short-term, it's all good. However, from 2023 to 2025, this is where things get sticky.
Middle-Term Impacts
After a season of salary cap savings, the buyouts of these contracts will have the Wild carrying a bit over $12.74M in dead cap in 2023. If the salary cap doesn't rise from the current limit, that means that 15.6% of the Wild's cap space is in dead cap that season.
In 2024 and 2025, the dead cap figure rises to a tad over $14.74M, or 18.1% of the current salary cap.
Now, with fans returning to arenas, the NHL schedule returning to normal, and with the NHL's games starting to be broadcast on ESPN, there is the hope that the salary cap would increase.
The NHL's Collective Bargaining Agreement says that the cap can only increase at a maximum of $1M per year through the 2026 season, so the best-case scenario is that the dead cap coming from the buyouts represent only 17.4% of the Wild's cap space.
If the Wild bought out Parise and Suter to make sure they can protect a player like Matt Dumba, the downside of that is that signing him to an extension in 2024 gets a lot harder.
The Wild already have about $30M on existing contracts, not to mention they need to re-sign Jordan Greenway and/or Kaapo Kahkonen next season, or Cam Talbot and/or Carson Soucy in 2024, assuming that the Seattle Kraken don't take those players in the Expansion Draft.
Add to the fact that Fiala's deal could cost $6M/year and Kaprizov's could go up to either $9M or $10M/year. Beyond that, the only players needing new contracts in 2025 are Mats Zuccarello (who would be 37 at that time), Marcus Foligno, and Ryan Hartman. But as it shows, the Wild want to bank on their young prospects like Marco Rossi, Matthew Boldy, and Calen Addison.
Long-Term Impacts
Beyond 2025, where Parise and Suter's contracts would have expired had they not been bought out, the cap hit becomes more manageable at a total of $1.67M per year for the four seasons between 2025 and 2029. That's about $1M less in dead cap than the Wild had for two seasons after buying out Thomas Vanek's contract.
By this time, the Wild would consider new deals for Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and possibly Fiala and/or Kaprizov should either or both sign a five-year deal this offseason.
To Sum It Up
These buyouts put even more pressure on the hands of Guerin to do work in the future and to keep the Wild as a perennial playoff contender. However, it makes it easier on who the Wild will protect in the Expansion Draft.
Matt Dumba, who was initially speculated to be taken by the Seattle Kraken, is now expected to be protected by the Wild. Beforehand, Suter, Brodin, and Spurgeon all had no-movement clauses, so that automatically has them protected from being taken by the Kraken. But since Parise and Suter were bought out, that means that the Wild can now go the 7/3/1 route instead of the 4/4/1 route in terms of protecting players.
Both players had NMCs, and had they not waived their NMCs, that would have put the Wild in a harder spot this offseason, not only for protecting their players in the Expansion Draft, but also for re-signing Fiala and Kaprizov.
Overall, the buyouts of Parise and Suter are high-risk, high-reward for the Wild. Guerin is not afraid to do what is necessary for the team, even if the decision is hard.
What do you think of this?
Comments