Continuing on with our AFC North previews, we move to the first of two Ohio teams with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The hard part for the Bengals is over. They now have their quarterback of the future in Joe Burrow, who more than looked the part in his first 10 games of his career. Now they have to do another task: Build a team around him that can compete with the rest of a stacked AFC North.
The work to do that has been significant, as the Bengals were active during free agency and filled out their roster with 10 picks in the 2021 Draft.
Will it be enough, though? Him bouncing back from a torn ACL and the productivity of the new guys will dictate whether or not they are ready to take the next step.
Burrow played with an uncanny savvy during the regular season. What he did behind one of the worst O-lines in the league—maintaining his cool in the midst of constant pressure, going through his reads and rarely making the kinds of mistakes (just 5 picks) rookies often make—provides a lot of reasons to believe that he will only get better in 2021, given that he fully recovers from his knee injury. It’s rare to see such poise and swagger from someone so young, but Burrow radiates it.
The improved supporting cast should do damage as well. Given the choice to improve the O-line by drafting the top tackle in Penei Sewell or reunite Burrow with his former college teammate at LSU, the Bengals chose the latter and added Ja’Marr Chase, a dynamic wide receiver who set an SEC record with 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns during LSU’s undefeated season in 2019. He didn’t play in 2020, but that didn’t matter.
Even when there are other talented wide receivers that are 1st round worthy, Chase was still viewed as the best WR, and him added to Cincy’s offense gives the Bengals one of the league’s best young wide receiver cores. Now, Burrow has three legit weapons in Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. This is a trio that should soften the blow of losing AJ Green, one of the Bengals’ greatest players in franchise history.
Boyd has proven to be most effective when he is not the only option in the air game, and he would likely continue to be the go-to guy on 3rd down.
The Bengals didn’t do much at tight end during the offseason to get Burrow a safety valve that young quarterbacks love to have. Drew Sample had a solid season in his second year, but he needs to take more steps should he take the starting spot from CJ Uzomah.
The O-line can’t be worse than how it was last season, but still has a lot of question marks. By choosing Chase of Sewell, that means that they were wanting to roll with former 1st round pick Jonah Williams at left tackle. At first, it’s surprising, but now, it shouldn’t be, given that last season was essentially his rookie season. Riley Reiff at right tackle gives them an upgrade at that position, while 2nd round rookie Jackson Carman could get the call at one of the guard spots. There’s still work to do, but Burrow is likely not going to get as banged and bruised up as he was in his rookie season.
Joe Mixon was the bell cow RB in the six games he played last season, averaging better than 23 touches each contest, and all signs point towards him getting a lot more reps in 2021. The Bengals didn’t add a lot more competition to the room, which means that they are riding with him as he hits his prime.
Some faces have changed defensively and in the secondary, but the question is if it will lead to much improvement.
Trey Hendrickson, who broke out last season with 13.5 sacks, landed with the Bengals, but at the cost of them losing Carl Lawson, a similarly dangerous and powerful pass rusher who chose to head to the Jets.
The Bengals rarely go this path—giving out big money to a free agent while letting one of their homegrown players walk—but this is a new era for the Bengals defense that is moving on from the familiar faces of the 2010s decade, including Geno Atkins, who was released and was replaced by Larry Ogunjobi, a promising player who has a lot of starting experience playing with the Browns, never quitting his stride.
The Bengals don’t have a replacement for Carlos Dunlap when they traded him, instead hoping that Sam Hubbard bounces back from 2020, where he has two sacks, to where he has a similar, or better, season that he had in 2019, where he had 8.5 sacks.
This season is a big one for Germaine Pratt, the leader of a young Bengals linebacking core. He’s not great, but he is good, and the Bengals need more from him and the rest of the group. That includes Logan Wilson, who showed promise as a rookie, and Akeem Davis-Gaither, who had his ups and downs. However, their lack of action with the position signals that they want to roll with this group through the ups and downs.
The Bengals added two marquee free agents after parting ways with veterans William Jackson III and Mackensie Alexander. In comes Mike Hilton and Chidobe Awuzie.
Hilton, who was a beloved slot corner in Pittsburgh but fell victim to their salary cap crunch gives the Bengals an upgrade at the slot, a position at which he is able to change the game both as a cover man and as a pass rusher (he has 9.5 career sacks).
The return of Trae Waynes, who missed all of last season with a pectoral injury, ensures that the Bengals will open the season with a trio of corners who never played a down for the Bengals.
Jessie Bates III, an emerging star who is basically “the best safety you never even heard of,” holds the glue together in the secondary. The second-team All Pro was the highest rated safety by Pro Football Focus in 2020 after combining for 15 pass breakups and interceptions—the most of any safety in the league. He played on the final season of his rookie deal and is due for a big payday if he maintains the same level of play.
The AFC North had three teams in the playoffs in 2020 and expect it to be tough again. The Bengals were the odd team out last season and expect similar results this season, but that doesn’t mean that they should blow it up if they don’t meet expectations.
Take the last two seasons for example. In 2019, they were 2-14, but 8 of their losses were by one score and they led at some point during 12 of their 16 games. To put that into perspective, the only other team to lead in 12 games and lose 14 times were the 1979 49ers, who had Bill Walsh as HC and Joe Montana at QB. In 2020, the Bengals were 4-11-1, and what makes this so frustrating is that 5 of their losses came by five points or less.
It feels as if they are on the verge of being good, but can’t. However, with a rising star tat QB that is surrounding with a legitimate supporting cast, this team should be exciting to watch, but not so exciting for opposing defenses facing them.
Schedule
Week 1: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM on FOX
This is a great home opener for the Bengals. With Burrow making his return on his home field, the Bengals face a very beatable team. Burrow’s mouth should be salivating at the thought of facing a Vikigns team that had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in 2020. As long as he has time to throw, expect the Bengals to score a lot of points. Don’t count out the Vikings, either. Dalvin Cook is too good of a runner to not rack up 100 rushing yards against the Bengals. This game is also meaningful as it is a revenge game for someone from both sides. On the Bengals’ side, it’s a revenge game for Riley Reiff, who spent his last four seasons in Minnesota. On the Vikings’ side, it’s a revenge game for HC Mike Zimmer, who spent six seasons in Cincinnati as their DC. Although he would like to win this game, this is not happening, because Burrow will tear the defense apart for at least 300 passing yards.
Week 1 score: Bengals 31, Vikings 27
Week 2: @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 19, 1:00 PM on FOX
This is an interesting matchup because it could possibly turn into an Andy Dalton revenge game. He’s the Bears’ starter to begin the season now, but even if he is the starter, the Bengals aren’t going to win or lose this game because of him. It’s going to come down to how well the Bengals play against the Bears’ defense. The Bears are one of the Bengals’ better matchups in terms of personnel, so an upset could happen. If it does happen, they would knock off a playoff team from last season. Say that is happens here.
Week 2 score: Bengals 20, Bears 16
Week 3: @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 26, 1:00 PM on CBS
If there is a city where the Bengals almost never win, it’s in Pittsburgh. Since the start of the 2010 season, the Bengals went 2-9 in the Steel City, and they might have gotten to their lowest point when they lost 36-10 that was easily the ugliest of Burrow’s career. There are going to be some rocks in the road for the Steelers, but if there is one game they can count on winning, it’s when they play the Bengals at home.
Week 3 score: Steelers 30, Bengals 24
Week 4: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (TNF)
Thursday, September 30, 8:20 PM on NFLN
We’re getting the last two 1st overall picks in a match up against each other in Thursday Night Football! This should be exciting. This game is just one of two games where the Bengals are favored to win, and this should turn into a classic. The thing is, these two teams were not so far apart last season, and there’s a good chance this game turns into a shootout. However, the Bengals have the better weapons, so expect them to get the W here.
Week 4 score: Bengals 30, Jaguars 27
Week 5: vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 10, 1:00 PM on FOX
So, Aaron Rodgers is back in Green Bay for one last dance with the Packers. Despite getting 10 days to prepare for this game, there’s basically zero chance for the Bengals winning here.
Week 5 score: Packers 45, Bengals 20
Week 6: @ Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 17, 1:00 PM on FOX
Although the Lions are in a rebuild right now, this game is very winnable for the Bengals. The Bengals had a bad defense last season, but nowhere near as bad as the Lions. In the 2020 season, the Lions gave up the 5th-most points in the NFL, the 3rd-most passing yards, and the 5th-most rushing yards. Along with drafting Penei Sewell to bolster an O-line that already has two studs in Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker, not only are they trying to fill in those holes defensively with Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill, who can manhandle the Bengals’ O-line, which should keep this game close, they are also trying to fill in the defensive holes with a new coaching staff. Still, the Bengals get the win here.
Week 6 score: Bengals 27, Lions 23
Week 7: @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 24, 1:00 PM on CBS
The Ravens’ pass rush got thinner because of their free agent losses, but Lamar Jackson and co. will still run all over the Bengals defense and turn Paul Brown Stadium into their own stomping ground. The Bengals struggled against stopping the run last season. One reason for that is because the Ravens ran all over them. That included when they rushed for 404 RUSHING YARDS in Week 17 last season, the 5th-highest single-game total in NFL history. Although such a game may never happen again, the Bengals have proven they can’t stop the Ravens’ offense, and Burrow can only do so much.
Week 7 score: Ravens 33, Bengals 24
Week 8: @ New York Jets
Sunday, October 31, 1:00 PM on CBS
This is going to be a fun quarterback duel between Burrow and Zach Wilson. The Jets, on the other side, are building their offense around a rookie QB (Wilson) and a rookie running back in Michael Carter. Although Carl Lawson left for the Jets, unfortunately for him, his first year with Gang Green is over before it even started after rupturing his left Achilles’ tendon. Nonetheless, the Bengals should do enough to pull away with the W.
Week 8 score: Bengals 38, Jets 34
Week 9: vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 7, 1:00 PM on CBS
Last season, the Browns swept the Bengals, but both games were decided by a total of 8 points and either game could have been won by the Bengals. The Bengals’ secondary matches up well with the Browns’ pass attack. However, the Browns still have a top 3 rushing attack in the NFL and are capable of running the ball at will. Expect the game to be a shootout, but for everything the Bengals have, the Browns are still one step ahead.
Week 9 score: Browns 38, Bengals 33
Week 10: BYE WEEK
Week 11: @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 21, 4:05 PM on CBS
The Bengals’ winning formula this season involves scoring a lot of points and hoping that Burrow is fully healthy to play against non-playoff opponents. This is the case when they play the Raiders. The Raiders had a bad defense last season and didn’t do much to improve this offseason. They surrendered the third-most points in the NFL in 2020, so don’t be surprised if the trio of Tyler Boyd, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins explode for huge numbers, especially with the Bengals getting an extra week to prepare for this game.
Week 11 score: Bengals 41, Raiders 34
Week 12: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 28, 1:00 PM on CBS
The Bengals were 1-11 in their last 12 games against the Steelers and one huge reason for that is because of the Steelers defense. In those 12 games, they averaged 15.8 points per game. However, they did put up 27 points at home with Ryan Finley at quarterback in Week 15. Drafting Tyler Shelvin to pair with DJ Reader could make sense, but the purpose of that is to stop the run game. It could pay off, but there’s no telling on if it will happen as Najee Harris may be the Steelers’ solution to the ground game. Although the Steelers revamped their offense, the biggest factor in this season series is homefield advantage. This will be close, but expect the Steelers to fall for another trap game similar to last season.
Week 12 score: Bengals 26, Steelers 23
Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, December 5, 1:00 PM on FOX
The Chargers had much of the same problems as the Bengals last season, where they were plagued with bad O-line play. Although the Bengals addressed those issues by adding Riley Reiff and seeing the return of Jonah Williams, the Chargers did more with the additions of Corey Linsley, Matt Feiler, and Rashawn Slater. On paper, the Chargers have a better defense, and it’s a unit that is only going to get better now with Brandon Staley as their HC, who is one of the game’s premier defensive minds. What would, in other cases, be a shootout between Burrow and Justin Herbert, instead turns into a blowout towards the Chargers’ favor, which marks the unofficial start of the Bengals’ late-season collapse. Garbage time is what is going to make the final score closer than what the game seemed.
Week 13 score: Chargers 37, Bengals 23
Week 14: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 12, 1:00 PM on CBS
The most notable change to the NFL schedule is the 17th game, and the game that the Bengals got is not a matchup that works towards their favor. Stopping the run was a nightmare for the Bengals in 2020, and they did next to nothing to improve on that this season. Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in the NFL, as he is a schematic genius. Imagine the schemes that he is going to throw at the Bengals. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers run away with the win here, no matter if the starter is Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance.
Week 14 score: 49ers 34, Bengals 17
Week 15: @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 19, 4:05 PM on CBS
From November 22nd to January 8th, this is the ONLY road game that the Bengals will be playing. Why is this? They only leave home once between Weeks 12 and 17. However, playing in the Mile High City is usually a daunting task for opponents that are unfamiliar with the unique elements there. Because the Bengals’ only playmaker on defense is Jessie Bates III, and the Broncos have the personnel in their secondary to hold up against the Bengals’ receiving core, the Broncos should take care of business at home.
Week 15 score: Broncos 27, Bengals 20
Week 16: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 26, 1:00 PM on CBS
This Ravens offense has the best rushing attack in the league, and is quite possibly one of the best rushing offenses in NFL history. They don’t need a high volume of pass attempts to be successful in the NFL. The Ravens have won five straight games against the Bengals and a big reason for that is because the Bengals have not figured out how to slow down their offense. They lost their last five games by an average of 20.8 points, while the Ravens are scoring at an average of 32.2 points in those five games. The Bengals are completely outmatched at the point of attack and have no answers for them. If they didn’t stop them in the first meeting, then playing at their home turf won’t matter.
Week 16 score: Ravens 28, Bengals 24
Week 17: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 2, 1:00 PM on CBS
No matter how optimistic you feel about the Bengals, there is still a massive gap between them and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, and they have overhauled their O-line that got overwhelmed in Super Bowl LV. This is bad news for the Bengals’ D-line. The only way the Bengals can win this game is if the Chiefs rest Patrick Mahomes, but I doubt that will happen, so the Bengals’ defense is going to have their hands full on the Chiefs’ starters. The Bengals’ secondary is in for a rough night no matter how good Bates is. It’s also possible that Mahomes could even have a 400- or 500-yard night here.
Week 17 score: Chiefs 48, Bengals 23
Week 18: @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, January 9, 1:00 PM on CBS
It’s at this point where the Bengals are at their lowest point, coming off a blowout loss to the Chiefs where their defense gave up 48 points. Burrow lit up the Browns in both meetings against the Browns last season, but that was before the Browns loaded up their secondary in the offseason AND added Jadeveon Clowney to bulk up the front seven. Add that to the fact that the Bengals still don’t have any answers to stop the Browns’ rushing attack led by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. It’s hard to see a scenario where the Bengals win in Cleveland. The only good news for them in this game is that they get to play a game on January 9th again, the third time since 1991 that this team has played a game this late in the season.
Week 18 score: Browns 41, Bengals 20
Final Record Projection: 7-10
Projected Starters
Offense
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Tyler Boyd, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
TE: CJ Uzomah/Drew Sample
OL: Jonah Williams (LT), Quinton Spain (LG), Trey Hopkins (C), Michael Jordan (RG), Riley Reiff (RT)
Defense
DE: Sam Hubbard (LE), Trey Hendrickson (RE)
DT: DJ Reader (LDT), Larry Ogunjobi (RDT)
LB: Logan Wilson (LILB), Germaine Pratt (RILB)
CB: Trae Waynes (LCB), Chidobe Awuzie (RCB), Mike Hilton (NB)
S: Vonn Bell (SS), Jessie Bates III (FS)
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